The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games on 11/5. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

AJ’s Angles

These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s NBA games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

* Teams that won their previous game but didn’t cover the spread have been bad in their zero rest follow-up game recently, going 69-74 SU and 53-88-2 ATS (37.6%) since the start of the 2022-23 season.
System Match (FADE): MIAMI (+7.5 at GSW)

* ORLANDO has covered nine straight meetings with Phoenix
Trend Match (PLAY): ORLANDO (+1.5 at PHX)

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.

* PHOENIX is 18-2 SU and 15-5 ATS (75%) vs teams currently winning less than 40% of their games, since the start of last season
Trend Match (PLAY): PHOENIX (-1.5 vs ORL)

* NBA teams playing in the back-to-back away game scenario are 8-19 SU and 9-18 ATS vs. teams playing a 4thStraightHome game over the L4 Seasons
* NBA teams playing at home in the 2 Days Rest game scenario were 38-17 SU and 34-21 ATS hosting teams playing a 3rd in 4 Days game last season
Systems Match (PLAY): GOLDEN STATE (-7.5 vs MIA)

* GOLDEN STATE is 10-1 Over the total playing in the 2 Days Rest scenario since Dec ’25
* GOLDEN STATE is 17-3 Over the total (85%) as a favorite of -5.5 to -9.5 points since the start of last season
* NBA teams playing at home in the 2 Days Rest game scenario are 35-20 Over the total hosting teams playing a 3rd in 4 Days game over the last season
System/Trends Match (PLAY OVER): MIA-GSW (o/u at 233.5)

Here are the top head-to-head series trends in play for all of today’s games:

(529) ORLANDO at (530) PHOENIX
* ORLANDO is 5-4 SU and 9-0 ATS in their last nine meetings with Phoenix
Trend Match (PLAY): ORLANDO (+1.5 at PHX)

(531) MIAMI at (532) GOLDEN STATE
* Under the total is 5-1-1 in the last seven of the Heat-Warriors cross-country set
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): MIA-GSW (o/u at 233.5)

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last six NBA seasons.

NBA Team Strength Betting System #2:
In games between two teams with 40% or less winning percentages, and lines of 4.5 or less either way, road teams are on a 145-119 SU and 148-113-3 ATS (56.7%) surge.
System Match (PLAY): ORLANDO (+1.5 at PHX)

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last six seasons unless noted.

Fade teams off of overtime games
Teams that played in an overtime game the prior day are on a 71-102 SU and 75-93-5 ATS (44.6%) slide.
System Match (FADE): MIAMI (+7.5 at GSW)

Road favorites bounce back after losing as home favorite
NBA teams that come off a game in which they lost as home favorites flush that result quickly when next a road favorite, going 191-88 SU and 155-120-4 ATS (56.4%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY): NONE YET BUT WATCH FOR ORLANDO at PHX (+1.5 CURRENTLY)

Close wins haven’t provided for momentum going forward
NBA teams that won as favorites by a close margin (1-3 points) have gone 320-176 SU but just 205-278-13 ATS (42.4%) in the next contest when favored again.
System Match (FADE): GOLDEN STATE (-7.5 vs MIA)

Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more free throw attempts trended Under the total the next game, 433-369 (54%) since 2021.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): MIA-GSW (o/u at 233.5)

Massive rebounding differentials
NBA teams that had a -15 or worse rebounding differential have struggled to tighten up in a back-to-back situation, going Over the total at a 116-81 (58.9%) rate since 2021, including 61-38 (61.6%) to the Over in the last 99.
System Match (PLAY OVER): ORL-PHX (o/u at 222.5)

Winning but not covering has been a problem
Teams that won their previous game but didn’t cover the spread have been bad in their zero rest follow-up game recently, going 69-74 SU and 53-88-2 ATS (37.6%) since the start of the 2022-23 season.
System Match (FADE): MIAMI (+7.5 at GSW)

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.

NBA Streak Betting System #9:
Teams who have lost at least their last four games and are facing an opponent on 2+ Days Rest have had their games go Over the total at a 147-111-2 (57%) rate since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY OVER): ORL-PHX (o/u at 222.5)

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:00 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 986-903 ATS (52.2%) over the last four seasons. This has produced -7.3 units and a ROI of -0.4%. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Match (PLAY): ORLANDO

DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-Conference games (East versus West) of the last three seasons, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been successful, as they are 556-489 ATS (53.2%). This simple angle has produced +18.1 units of profit and an ROI of +1.7%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ORLANDO, GOLDEN STATE

DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: There has been a massive disparity of success levels for majority groups on handle when they back the home or road team on money line wagers. On home teams, these majorities have gone 1762-790 over the last three seasons but for -311.85 units and a ROI of -12.2%. On road teams, these majorities have gone 1351-889 but for just -44.23 units and an ROI of -2%. This 10%+ disparity warrants fading ML majorities on home teams consistently.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PHOENIX ML, GOLDEN STATE ML

DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in a NBA game. When any majority number have favored the Under option over the last four seasons, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 566-470, good for 54.6%, +49 units, and an ROI of +4.7% since January 2023.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): MIA-GSW

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses).

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: MIAMI +7.5 (+1.0)

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: PHOENIX -1.5 (+1.4)

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: ORLANDO +1.5 (+1.1)

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: GOLDEN STATE -7.5 (+4.3)

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1(tie). ORL-PHX OVER 222.5 (+2.1)
MIA-GSW OVER 233.5 (+2.1)

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: MIAMI +7.5 (+2.1)

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: PHOENIX -1.5 (+1.0)

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. ORL-PHX OVER 222.5 (+5.0)
2. MIA-GSW OVER 233.5 (+3.6)

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Steve Makinen
Steve Makinen
As one of the original founders of StatFox, Steve Makinen has been in the business of sports betting and data analysis for almost 25 years now. In his time in the industry, Steve has worked in a variety of capacities on both sides of the betting counter, from his early days of developing the StatFox business, to almost a decade of oddsmaking consulting for one of the world's leading sportsbooks, to his last seven years as Point Spread Weekly and Analytics Director with VSiN. Steve has always believed that number crunching and handicapping through foundational trends and systems is the secret to success and he shares this data with VSiN readers on a daily basis for all of the major sports.

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