College Basketball Bets
It is a robust college basketball card for a Thursday with 62 games on the betting board. That means 124 of the nation’s 365 teams will be on the floor, so just over one-third of them. As you would expect with a card that big, there are a ton of different conferences on the schedule, so there’s something for everyone from big games to small games and everything in between.
Our first tip time is 6 p.m. ET and our last tip time is 11 p.m. ET, as we have two games with the early starts and three games with the late starts, so it’ll be a good night to fire up that ESPN+ subscription or flip around the cable networks, as there are a ton of televised games.
For more college basketball best bets today, check out Greg Peterson’s daily article and Tyler Shoemaker’s TSI Projections/Best Bets on weekdays.
As always, I want to give a shout-out to Bart Torvik (BartTorvik.com), Erik Haslam (Haslametrics.com), and KenPom, as they provide a lot of great data.
This season, we’ve also connected with CBBAnalytics.com to access their data and I’ll be working that into my article. Use promo code VSIN30 for $30 off at CBB Analytics and find your betting edge.
This article will run Monday-Saturday. Lines will be from DraftKings, as they are widely available to readers. Shop around for the best prices.
Check the latest college basketball odds for legal U.S. sportsbooks across the country and our Vegas odds if you share a state with us here at VSiN. Also, give the college basketball betting splits (DraftKings) and Circa CBB Betting Splits a look for these or any other college basketball games today have your interest.
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publish.
George Washington Revolutionaries (-1.5, 154.5) at Saint Joseph’s Hawks
7 p.m. ET
George Washington lost badly to Fordham at home last time out and got crushed on the glass without leading scorer and rebounder Rafael Castro. The 6-foot-11 senior with a 25.3% Usage Rate is a top-40 rebounder nationally and is such a huge part of this team offensively and defensively. Using the On/Off metrics from CBB Analytics, the Revs go from a +15.7 Net Rating with Castro on the floor to a +7.9 Net Rating without him.
They’ve also become much more reliant on taking 3s, shooting a 3 on 51% of shot attempts without Castro on the floor compared to 42.2% with him. They’re a good 3-point shooting team, but obviously teams will pay a lot more attention out on the perimeter if Castro is unable to go. He had a walking boot and crutches before the last game and I saw a tweet of Castro going to a former teammate’s game the other day and it looked like he had the boot still on.
The Hawks are also on a nice heater as they’ve adjusted to life without Deuce Jones. He was dismissed from the team in December and some adjustments had to be made, but the team has won six of their last seven in conference play. Both of these teams have played pretty weak A-10 schedules, but Saint Joseph’s has played the tougher of the two and I trust their numbers a bit more, especially with a hobbled, or potentially out, Castro.
Pick: Saint Joseph’s +1.5
Youngstown State Penguins at IPFW Mastodons (-2.5, 147.5)
7 p.m. ET
A rematch from just under a month ago brings Youngstown State out to Fort Wayne for this Horizon League tilt. Youngstown State led the first game by six points with 4:04 left and didn’t score again the rest of the way, losing 71-69. It was a really unfortunate outcome for the Penguins, who had 15 ORebs to Fort Wayne’s nine and also had 29 shot attempts at the rim compared to 17 for the Mastodons.
Running it back here with all the same personnel in play, I think Youngstown State experiences a different fate if they are able to maintain their high Rim & 3 Rate and edge on the offensive glass. The other downside risk is the 16 turnovers that the Penguins had in that game, but they should be able to adjust.
Fort Wayne is the worst offense in this conference from an adjusted offensive efficiency standpoint, even with a conference-low 13% TO%. That gives you an idea of how much they’ve struggled in a lot of other areas, namely on the glass and with getting to the free throw line.
Based on the first matchup, I think Youngstown State can flip the script and finish this game out stronger.
Pick: Youngstown State +2.5
Charlotte 49ers at Wichita State Shockers (-8.5, 141.5)
7:30 p.m. ET
American Conference action here between Charlotte and Wichita State, as the Shockers look for revenge from the 104-100 double overtime loss to the 49ers about a month ago. This is a Charlotte team that has really made some strides offensively in conference play this season, as they are second in 2P% and second in 3P% at 56.8% and 38%, respectively. Wichita State is shooting 36.4% on 3s, but only 46.2% on 2s, where they rank 11th in both 2P% offense and defense.
Charlotte’s defensive efficiency metrics are hurt by their low TO% of 13.5%, but they’ve been pretty good overall defensively and only sit 0.2% behind Wichita State in eFG% defense, while being easily the better offensive team. The other thing about how the Shockers shoot well on 3s is that they only have a 34.7% 3P Rate this season and a 34% 3P Rate in conference play, so they’re not really taking advantage of it to the degree that they possibly could.
For Wichita State to be such a poor team on 2s on both ends of the floor, the tempo of this game will likely make it hard to win by this sort of margin. The 49ers are 355th in the nation in adjusted tempo per Torvik and Wichita State is 271st. While they have sped up a little bit in conference play, they’re still ninth in the American. Charlotte, too, has moved a tad quicker, but they’re still 13th in tempo.
The first game was a double overtime game played to only 75 possessions, so it moved at a pretty slow pace, though there were 40 combined offensive rebounds, which surely played a role. Still, I think this is just too many points for Charlotte.
Pick: Charlotte +8.5
