College Basketball Picks Today:
Expert college basketball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top college basketball picks today for Friday, March 20.
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12:15 PM Eastern
Santa Clara Broncos vs. Kentucky Wildcats
Santa Clara has done the little things well, ranking 22nd in points per possession on offense while grabbing 35% of its missed shots as offensive rebounds (19th nationally). While the team is 93rd in points per possession allowed, Kentucky is just 104th in that category. Santa Clara is also far better at creating havoc on defense, ranking 21st in turnovers per possession forced, while Kentucky sits 228th.
Pick: Santa Clara +3.5 and Under 160.5
Greg’s Handicap: Santa Clara -2.5 and Total 154.5
12:40 PM Eastern
Akron Zips vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders
For the most part, Texas Tech has been able to get by even without forward JT Toppin thanks to elite 3-point shooting, hitting 39.3% from deep (4th nationally) and ranking 32nd in points per possession on offense. However, the status of point guard and leading scorer Christian Anderson—after slipping on the Big 12 Tournament floor—is a major question mark. Akron brings one of the best offenses in the country, ranking 5th in points per possession and shooting 38.5% from three (14th). They should be able to exploit a Texas Tech interior that ranks 189th in defensive rebound percentage and 124th in opponent 2-point shooting percentage.
Pick: Akron +7.5
Greg’s Handicap: Akron -1
1:35 PM Eastern
Long Island Sharks vs. Arizona Wildcats
Arizona is one of the most balanced teams in the nation, ranking 13th in points per possession on offense and 6th in points per possession allowed on defense. However, they may not fully expose Long Island’s biggest flaw—turnovers—as LIU ranks 320th in turnovers per possession while Arizona is just 174th in turnovers forced. Long Island also crashes the offensive glass effectively, grabbing 33.7% of its missed shots (35th nationally).
Pick: Long Island +30.5 and Over 149.5
Greg’s Handicap: Long Island +26 and Total 154
1:50 PM Eastern
Wright State Raiders vs. Virginia Cavaliers
Wright State’s outside shooting has traveled well, ranking 5th in 3-point shooting percentage away from home (40.8%) and 24th in points per possession in those games. While they are at a disadvantage on the glass, with Virginia ranking 14th in rebound percentage, Wright State is still respectable at 71st. Virginia also does not generate much defensive pressure, ranking 249th in turnovers per possession forced.
Pick: Wright State +18.5 and Under 145.5
Greg’s Handicap: Wright State +13.5 and Total 137.5
2:50 PM Eastern
Tennessee State Tigers vs. Iowa State Cyclones
Tennessee State has not been to the NCAA Tournament in over 30 years, but they bring experience with head coach Nolan Smith, who played at Duke. Both Tennessee State and Iowa State excel at generating turnovers, with Tennessee State ranking 24th in turnovers per possession forced while Iowa State ranks 4th. Iowa State also struggles at the free-throw line, ranking 340th at 67.2%, while Tennessee State ranks 317th in opponent free-throw attempts per field goal attempt.
Pick: Tennessee State +25
Greg’s Handicap: Tennessee State +18.5
3:15 PM Eastern
Hofstra Pride vs. Alabama Crimson Tide
Alabama is a team that lives and dies by the 3-point shot, attempting 53.7% of its field goal attempts from beyond the arc—the highest rate in the nation. They will be without Aden Holloway, who shoots a team-best 43.8% from three and averages 16.8 points per game. Hofstra ranks 76th in opponent 3-point shooting percentage (32.3%) and crashes the offensive glass well, grabbing 33.6% of its missed shots (38th nationally), while ranking 38th in points per possession in games played away from home.
Pick: Hofstra +11.5 and Over 158
Greg’s Handicap: Hofstra +7 and Total 165
4:10 PM Eastern
Utah State Aggies vs. Villanova Wildcats
Utah State has been superb at creating ball pressure, ranking 4th in turnovers per possession forced in games played away from home. Villanova has struggled to defend the interior, ranking 170th in opponent 2-point shooting percentage, while Utah State ranks 11th in 2-point shooting percentage. Villanova is also allowing opponents to grab 29.9% of their missed shots as offensive rebounds (253rd nationally).
Pick: Utah State -1.5 and Under 147.5
Greg’s Handicap: Utah State -4.5 and Total 142.5
6:50 PM Eastern
Clemson Tigers vs. Iowa Hawkeyes
Iowa has specialized in generating turnovers, ranking 11th in turnovers per possession forced on defense, but now faces a Clemson offense that does a good job of protecting the ball, ranking 33rd in fewest turnovers per possession. Clemson should be able to exploit an Iowa defense that ranks 279th in opponent 2-point shooting percentage. They should also be able to limit Iowa from the outside, as Clemson allows teams to shoot 32.6% from three-point range (89th), while Iowa shoots 35.7% (74th) but ranks just 192nd in offensive rebound percentage, limiting second-chance opportunities.
Pick: Clemson +2.5
Greg’s Handicap: Clemson -2.5
7:25 PM Eastern
Central Florida Knights vs. UCLA Bruins
UCLA has been soft on the interior, allowing opponents to grab 30.6% of their missed shots as offensive rebounds (283rd nationally) and ranking 224th in opponent 2-point shooting percentage. Central Florida ranks 57th in offensive rebound percentage, which helps bridge the gap in 3-point shooting between the two teams, as UCLA ranks 16th at 38.2% while Central Florida ranks 46th at 36.2%.
Pick: Central Florida +5.5 and Under 152.5
Greg’s Handicap: Central Florida +2.5 and Total 148.5
9:25 PM Eastern
Prairie View Panthers vs. Florida Gators
Prairie View is at a massive rebounding disadvantage, with Florida leading the nation in rebound percentage while Prairie View ranks 335th. However, Prairie View should have success making Florida’s guards uncomfortable, ranking 27th in turnovers per possession forced away from home while playing at a rapid tempo (21st in possessions per game). Florida ranks 164th in turnovers per possession and 324th in 3-point shooting percentage at just 30.8%.
Pick: Prairie View +35.5 and Over 155.5
Greg’s Handicap: Prairie View +31.5 and Total 159.5
9:45 PM Eastern
Cal Baptist Lancers vs. Kansas Jayhawks
Kansas has not been very efficient on offense this season, ranking 136th in points per possession, even with Darryn Peterson playing 30+ minutes per night down the stretch. While the Jayhawks are 35th in points per possession allowed on defense, they will not fully exploit Cal Baptist’s weakness of ranking 273rd in turnovers per possession, as Kansas ranks 337th in turnovers per possession forced. Cal Baptist is also grabbing 36% of its missed shots as offensive rebounds (12th nationally).
Pick: Cal Baptist +14.5 and Under 138.5
Greg’s Handicap: Cal Baptist +8 and Total 136
10:00 PM Eastern
Furman Paladins vs. Connecticut Huskies
Furman has been strong with its interior offense, ranking 4th in the country in 2-point shooting percentage away from home. While they will likely have a tough time finding clean looks against a Connecticut defense that ranks 14th in points per possession allowed, both teams do a good job of guarding the perimeter away from home. Furman ranks 52nd in opponent 3-point shooting percentage away from home at 31.9%, while Connecticut ranks 4th at 28.6%.
Pick: Furman +20.5 and Under 137.5
Greg’s Handicap: Furman +18.5 and Total 134.5
10:10 PM Eastern
Missouri Tigers vs. Miami Hurricanes
Both teams have had difficulty guarding the 3-point line, with Miami ranking 272nd in opponent 3-point shooting percentage (35.4%) while Missouri ranks 330th (36.5%). Missouri has also had issues with ball security, ranking 266th in turnovers per possession, while Miami holds the edge on the glass, ranking 10th in rebound percentage compared to Missouri’s 53rd.
Pick: Miami -1.5 and Over 146.5
Greg’s Handicap: Miami -4.5 and Total 150.5
