College Basketball Picks Today:
Expert college basketball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top college basketball picks today for Thursday, March 13.
Check out Greg’s Daily College Basketball Lines and his Coast 2 Coast Hoops Podcast. Also, check out our College Basketball Betting Splits.
11:00 AM Eastern
Bowling Green vs. Akron
Akron ranks sixth in the country in possessions per game away from home and 42nd in points per possession on offense, which should exploit a Bowling Green defense that ranks 190th in points per possession allowed and 307th in opponent 2-point shooting percentage.
Pick: Bowling Green vs. Akron Over 149.5 (Greg’s Handicapped Total: 153.5)
12:00 PM Eastern
Butler vs. St. John’s
St. John’s ranks third in the country in fewest points per possession allowed and faces a Butler team that does not play at a fast tempo, ranking 234th in total possessions per game. This game likely won’t feature many made three-pointers, as Butler allows opponents to shoot only 29.1% from beyond the arc in road games, ranking ninth nationally. Additionally, St. John’s ranks 18th in turnovers forced per possession.
Pick: Butler vs. St. John’s Under 145.5 (Greg’s Handicapped Total: 139.5)
Oregon vs. Indiana
Indiana’s guard play has been underwhelming this season, with the team ranking 251st in the country in three-point shooting percentage (32.3%) and 130th overall in points per possession. They face an Oregon squad that lacks a defining strength but also has no glaring weaknesses. Oregon pulled away late when these teams met in Eugene on March 4, winning 73-64.
Pick: Oregon -1.5 (Greg’s Handicap: Oregon -4.5)
12:30 PM Eastern
BYU vs. Iowa State
BYU limits opponents’ second-chance opportunities, allowing just 23.3% of missed shots to be rebounded offensively in road games, ranking 17th in the country. However, their offensive efficiency drops significantly away from home, scoring 14 points fewer per 100 possessions. They face an Iowa State defense that, as of Wednesday, ranked 11th in points per possession allowed and eighth in turnovers forced per possession.
Pick: BYU vs. Iowa State Under 146 (Greg’s Handicapped Total: 142.5)
1:30 PM Eastern
Ohio vs. Toledo
Toledo won their last matchup against Ohio on Friday, 96-82, and should once again take advantage of Ohio’s porous defense, which ranks 360th in opponent three-point shooting percentage on the road (39.9%). Toledo also protects the ball well, ranking 13th nationally in fewest turnovers per possession and 71st in points per possession.
Pick: Toledo +3.5 (Greg’s Handicap: Toledo -1.5)
4:00 PM Eastern
Davidson vs. Saint Louis
Neither team is aggressive on the offensive glass, with both ranking 320th or worse in offensive rebounding percentage. Saint Louis is also 201st in possessions per game and 286th in turnovers per possession on offense.
Pick: Davidson vs. Saint Louis Under 142 (Greg’s Handicapped Total: 138)
6:30 PM Eastern
Iowa vs. Illinois
While Iowa does see a dip of 13.6 points per 100 possessions fewer scored away from home than at home, they face an Illinois squad that is 35th overall in points per possession while Iowa is 26th. The Illinois defense has been leaky away from home, giving up 17.7 points more per 100 possessions away from home than at home, ranking 219th in points per possession allowed away from home. On offense, they are 319th in 3-point shooting at 31%.
Pick: Iowa +11 (Greg’s Handicap Iowa +8.5)
7:30 PM Eastern
La Salle vs. St. Joseph’s
St. Joseph’s ranks 40th nationally in points per possession allowed on defense, while La Salle’s offense has struggled all season, ranking 297th in points per possession entering the Atlantic 10 Tournament. Both teams allow opponents to shoot 33.3% or worse from three-point range, and St. Joseph’s ranks 244th in total possessions per game on the road.
Pick: La Salle vs. St. Joseph’s Under 146 (Greg’s Handicapped Total: 142.5)
8:30 PM Eastern
Mount St. Mary’s vs. Marist
Marist ranks 23rd in the country in points per possession allowed on the road and seventh in opponent two-point shooting percentage. Meanwhile, Mount St. Mary’s struggles to take care of the ball, ranking 359th in offensive turnover percentage, and will have trouble securing offensive rebounds against a Marist front line that ranks 13th in defensive rebounding percentage.
Pick: Marist -1.5 (Greg’s Handicap: Marist -4.5)
9:00 PM Eastern
Louisiana Tech vs. Middle Tennessee
Louisiana Tech has had difficulty maintaining clean possessions, ranking 303rd in offensive turnovers per possession. Middle Tennessee ranks 173rd nationally in points per possession on offense and 273rd in three-point shooting percentage. This should be a slow-paced game, as Louisiana Tech ranks 283rd in total possessions per game.
Pick: Louisiana Tech vs. Middle Tennessee Under 142.5 (Greg’s Handicapped Total: 139)
USC vs. Purdue
USC sees their 40.8% 3-point shooting at home, which ranks 12th in the country, plummet to 31.5% away from home. Purdue goes from making 41.7% of their 3-point shots at home to 35% away from home. They are a slow-tempo team, ranking 324th in possessions per game away from home. Both teams also are superb with their 3-point defense as Purdue ranks 29th in the country in opponent 3-point shooting percentage while USC is 20th in opponent 3-point shooting away from home at 29.8%.
Pick: USC vs. Purdue Under 150.5 (Greg’s Handicapped Total 143)
9:30 PM Eastern
Kansas vs. Arizona
Kansas ranks 282nd in points per possession in games played away from home, but they are 15th in points per possession allowed away from home. Arizona sees a large dip in offensive production away from home, ranking 12th in points per possession at home and 96th away from home with their 28.6% 3-point shooting away from home, ranking 342nd in the country.
Pick: Kansas vs. Arizona Under 152.5 (Greg’s Handicapped Total 148)
11:30 PM Eastern
Utah State vs. UNLV
Although this game is on UNLV’s home floor, they have been reduced to a six-man rotation, with two starting guards, Dedan Thomas and Julian Rishwain, missing Wednesday’s win over Air Force due to injuries. Utah State ranks 11th nationally in points per possession on offense and holds a rebounding edge, ranking 82nd in rebound percentage compared to UNLV’s 235th.
Pick: Utah State -3.5 and Under 146.5 (Greg’s Handicap: Utah State -6.5, Total: 142.5)
Cal Poly vs. UC Riverside
While Cal Poly ranks second in the nation in total possessions per game, they are only 154th in points per possession due to many of these possessions ending in a turnover, ranking 350th in turnovers per possession. UC Riverside is 148th in points per possession, ranking 281st in 2-point shooting percentage.
Pick: Cal Poly vs. UC Riverside Under 164.5 (Greg’s Handicapped Total 160.5)
