WNBA Picks
We split our bets yesterday, as the Indiana Fever laid an egg against the shorthanded Dallas Wings, losing outright as 3.5-point favorites. However, we did easily cash the Dream -8.5 after they demolished the LA Sparks on the road. Friday’s slate has three games, featuring the Washington Mystics hosting the Minnesota Lynx, the Chicago Sky hosting the Golden State Valkyries, and the Toronto Tempo hosting the Portland Fire. Here are the TSI projections for Friday, August 21st.
Washington Mystics (+3.5) vs Minnesota Lynx, O/U 163.5
Washington has won nine out of their last 11 games, including their last eight at home, where they’ve been 6.5 points better than their season average over that span. Minnesota comes in having won five straight games and playing three points above their season average in that span. TSI projects Minnesota -6.5 with a total of 159.5, although Napheesa Collier will sit this one out for Minnesota to rest, which explains the line move toward Washington. My initial thought was to play Washington here, but Minnesota has been good enough on the road, and the spread is too low for me to feel great about it. I’d lean Mystics here, but I’m going to pass on an official play. I’m not playing the Under because Washington’s home games lately have averaged 170 points, so I don’t want to let their low-scoring road games impact my view of the total here.
Chicago Sky (+6.5) vs Golden State Valkyries, O/U 161.5
Right as Chicago gets Sydney Taylor back in the lineup, Dijonai Carrington exits the lineup with a foot injury. The Sky have been playing 1.5 points below their season average lately, although they’ve been much better at home specifically, playing 4.5 points better than their season average over the last three home games. Golden State is coming off the loss to Minnesota and has been about 2.5 points worse than their season average over their last three road games. TSI projects Golden State -10.5 with a total of 160, but the home/road splits make me not feel great about laying points with the Valkyries, especially considering Chicago’s recent home games have averaged 180 points, which puts a lot of pressure on the Valkyries’ offense to put up a big number to cover this spread. Overs have just been hard to come by lately in the WNBA, so that would be my lean, but I’m not going to pull the trigger on an offense like Golden State’s right now.
Toronto Tempo (+2.5) vs Portland Fire, O/U 182.5
Marina Mabrey is out for Toronto, as their season is essentially over now that they’ve been eliminated from playoff contention, so I’ve got them firmly on “quit watch”. They’ve been 8.5 points worse than their season average over their last three home games, giving up 105 points per game in the process. Portland has been about two points better than their season average over their last three road games, and they just strike me as a team who is less likely to quit despite not being in the playoff hunt. TSI projects Tempo -4 with a total of 178, not accounting for Mabrey’s absence, which to me is probably worth around five points to Toronto. Still, the unquantifiable motivational factor combined with the home/road splits make me want to back Portland here.
Bet: Portland Fire -2.5 or better
For all of my WNBA picks, including prop bets and live plays, be sure to follow me on X @TShoeIndex and turn your notifications on to get real-time updates from me on all things WNBA.
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