MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Friday, August 21.
Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits and tools from our friends at Ballpark Pal, including Strikeout Prop Projections and the MLB YRFI Report.
Our Opta AI MLB Player Prop Projections are also available.
4:10 PM Eastern
Atlanta Braves vs. Milwaukee Brewers
This might be a battle for the National League Cy Young Award, as Brewers starting pitcher Jacob Misiorowski is the odds-on favorite with a 1.75 ERA, 13.6 strikeouts per nine innings, 0.8 home runs and two walks per nine innings. Braves starting pitcher Chris Sale is his biggest competition with a 2.16 ERA, 11.2 strikeouts per nine innings, 0.6 home runs and two walks per nine innings allowed, but his ERA goes from 1.65 at home to 2.69 on the road. He faces a Brewers lineup that is fourth in the league in scoring with five runs per game, while the Braves are eighth with 4.8 runs per game.
Pick: Braves vs. Brewers Over 6.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 7.2
7:10 PM Eastern
Washington Nationals vs. Miami Marlins
While the Nationals are both banged up and were sellers at the trade deadline, the team still leads the league in scoring with nearly 5.3 runs per game and faces Marlins starting pitcher Ryan Gusto, who has a 4.70 ERA, though his 4.09 fielding independent with 1.3 home runs and 2.3 walks per nine innings points toward positivity. The Nationals send Brad Lord to the mound for what figures to be an opener for a bullpen game for a Nationals team that is last in the National League in bullpen ERA at 4.81.
Pick: Nationals vs. Marlins Over 8 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 8.8
7:40 PM Eastern
New York Mets vs. Chicago White Sox
White Sox starting pitcher Sean Burke has been reliable with a 3.15 ERA and 9.9 strikeouts per nine innings as he faces a Mets team that, prior to the Juan Soto injury, was averaging only 4.05 runs per game, but since July 25 without Soto, the team is registering closer to 4.6 runs per game. The Mets also traded away the majority of their bullpen at the trade deadline and send Sean Manaea to the mound, who has a 4.22 ERA with 1.3 home runs and three walks per nine innings. He faces a White Sox lineup that is seventh in scoring with 4.8 runs per game.
Pick: White Sox Moneyline -140 and Over 7.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: White Sox -156 and Total 8.3
8:10 PM Eastern
Detroit Tigers vs. Kansas City Royals
Royals starting pitcher Noah Cameron enters in his best form of the season with zero or one run allowed in four of his last five starts and overall for the season has a 4.16 ERA with a lower 3.58 fielding independent and 0.9 home runs per nine innings allowed. However, he has a much higher 5.17 ERA at home compared to a 3.33 ERA away from home with 0.8 home runs per nine innings allowed and is supported by a bullpen that is 29th in ERA at 5.23. Tigers starting pitcher Troy Melton has an exceptional 1.71 ERA, but a much higher 3.55 fielding independent with only 7.8 strikeouts per nine innings, and the Royals average 4.7 runs per game at home compared to 3.6 runs per game away from home.
Pick: Tigers vs. Royals Over 8.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 9.2
8:40 PM Eastern
Cleveland Guardians vs. Colorado Rockies
Rockies pitcher Tanner Gordon has primarily pitched out of the bullpen this season with five starts and 12 relief appearances, and he has struggled in both roles, posting a 5.55 ERA with 7.6 strikeouts and 1.9 home runs allowed per nine innings. Guardians starting pitcher Joey Cantillo has command issues with 4.2 walks per nine innings, but is maintaining a 3.80 ERA with 10 strikeouts per nine innings and faces a Rockies lineup that has been solid on offense with 5.2 runs per game at home, which ranks fourth in the league. However, the Rockies bullpen is 27th in ERA at 4.81.
Pick: Guardians Run Line -1.5 +100 and Over 10.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Guardians -1.5 -117 and Total 11.7
9:40 PM Eastern
Cincinnati Reds vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
While Reds starting pitcher Nick Lodolo has been better recently with two runs or fewer allowed in four of his past five starts, he still owns a 4.56 ERA and 5.30 fielding independent with 1.5 home runs and 3.6 walks per nine innings while getting only 7.2 strikeouts per nine innings. Diamondbacks starting pitcher Eduardo Rodriguez has a low 2.71 ERA but a much higher 3.83 fielding independent with 6.4 strikeouts and 2.8 walks per nine innings, while the Diamondbacks are 16th in bullpen ERA at 4.11 and the Reds are 26th at 4.59.
Pick: Diamondbacks Moneyline -140 and Over 8.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Diamondbacks -160 and Total 9.3
10:10 PM Eastern
Chicago Cubs vs. Seattle Mariners
Mariners starting pitcher Emerson Hancock has been a revelation for the team with a 3.30 ERA, 1.1 home runs and 2.3 walks per nine innings, while the offense is last in scoring with 3.9 runs per game. He faces Cubs starting pitcher Matthew Boyd, who has a 4.02 ERA with 7.2 strikeouts and 1.4 home runs per nine innings allowed, but has been significantly better on the road. Boyd has a 5.44 ERA with over 2.2 home runs per nine innings allowed at home compared to a 2.57 ERA with 0.4 home runs per nine innings away from home. He is supported by a bullpen that is 10th in ERA at 3.88, while the Mariners are 14th at 3.97.
Pick: Mariners Moneyline -105 and Under 8 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Mariners -116 and Total 7.4
