College Basketball Picks Today:

Expert college basketball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top college basketball picks today for Friday, March 14.

Check out Greg’s Daily College Basketball Lines and his Coast 2 Coast Hoops Podcast. Also, check out our College Basketball Betting Splits.

 

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11:30 AM Eastern

St. Bonaventure vs. VCU

St. Bonaventure entered this tournament playing a slow and controlled style, ranking 344th in total possessions per game, while VCU is 263rd in total possessions per game. With their starting five playing essentially the full game, it could lead to the team slowing things down even further. Additionally, VCU ranks fifth in the country in points per possession allowed on defense, while St. Bonaventure is 34th in points per possession allowed in games played away from home.

Pick: St. Bonaventure vs. VCU Under 133.5 (Greg’s Handicapped Total 131)

12:00 PM Eastern

Oregon vs. Michigan State

Both teams play at the exact same tempo, ranking 136th and 137th in total possessions per game, respectively, entering Thursday. However, Michigan State’s style lends itself to slogs, as the team ranks 338th in the nation with a 30.2% 3-point shooting percentage on offense. On defense, they allow teams to make just 28% of their 3-point shots, which ranks third in the country. The team also ranks 19th in defensive rebound percentage, grabbing just 23% of their missed shots as offensive rebounds.

Pick: Oregon vs. Michigan State Under 144 (Greg’s Handicapped Total 140.5)

12:30 PM Eastern

Liberty vs. Kennesaw State 

Liberty leads the country in 3-point shooting percentage defense. Kennesaw State’s 3-point shooting percentage, which ranks 336th in the country, prompts the team to drive inside the arc. The team successfully sped up Liberty when these teams met on March 2 for an 85-80 win. While Liberty ranks 279th in total possessions per game, the team is 23rd in points per possession away from home with a road 3-point shooting percentage of 39.9%, which ranks sixth in the country. Kennesaw State is 43rd in total possessions per game.

Pick: Liberty vs. Kennesaw State Over 138 (Greg’s Handicapped Total 142.5)

2:30 PM Eastern

Wisconsin vs. UCLA

While UCLA’s defense ranks 24th in the nation in points per possession allowed, they allow 14.9 points more per 100 possessions when playing away from home. Their forte of generating turnovers—ranking fifth nationally in turnovers forced per possession—gets mitigated by a Wisconsin team that does the little things well. Wisconsin is 18th in the country in fewest turnovers per possession on offense and leads the nation in free throw shooting percentage at 83.6%, with no other team shooting above 80.6% in the country.

Pick: Wisconsin PK (Greg’s Handicap Wisconsin -3)

3:30 PM Eastern

Texas vs. Tennessee

The concern is Texas running out of gas after playing back-to-back games, including a double-overtime thriller on Thursday. However, Tennessee’s offense ranks 57th in the country in points per possession, while Texas entered Thursday ranked 45th in this category. The slow style Tennessee plays—ranking 351st in possessions per game when playing away from home—should help Texas have a bit more energy at the end of the game than if they played a different opponent.

Pick: Texas +10.5 (Greg’s Handicap Texas +6.5)

5:00 PM Eastern

Toledo vs. Akron

Toledo is coming off an overtime win on Thursday to get to this spot, which could cause them to play at a slower tempo than usual. Akron entered the MAC Tournament 47th in the nation in points per possession allowed, and their 2-point shooting percentage at home ranks 20th in the nation, compared to 76th when playing away from home.

Pick: Toledo vs. Akron Under 166.5 (Greg’s Handicapped Total 162.5)

George Washington vs. George Mason

The last time these two teams played, it was one of the biggest offensive slogs of the year, with George Mason winning 53-50 on the road. While holding George Washington to 50 points again might be a stretch, George Mason’s defense—ranked ninth in the nation in points per possession allowed—faces a George Washington team that entered Thursday 322nd in the country in 3-point shooting percentage at 30.9%. Additionally, George Washington ranks 312th in defensive rebound percentage, allowing opponents to grab 31% of their missed shots as offensive rebounds.

Pick: George Mason -1.5 (Greg’s Handicap George Mason -5.5)

6:30 PM Eastern

Marquette vs. St. John’s

St. John’s recently knocked off Marquette in Wisconsin and should win the battle on the glass once again, ranking 11th in the nation in offensive rebounds (percentage of missed shots grabbed). Marquette is 319th in road defensive rebound percentage, allowing opponents to grab 32.5% of their missed shots as offensive rebounds. However, Marquette maximizes their possessions with the fourth-fewest turnovers per possession in games played away from home, and they face an up-tempo St. John’s team that ranks 31st in possessions per game.

Pick: Marquette vs. St. John’s Over 139.5 (Greg’s Handicapped Total 145.5)

Illinois vs. Maryland

Maryland is one of the most complete teams in the nation, ranking 27th in points per possession on offense and 8th in points per possession allowed on defense. Illinois’ defense has been porous in games played away from home, entering Thursday allowing 17.7 points more per 100 possessions on the road than at home, ranking 219th in points per possession allowed away from home. On offense, Illinois entered Thursday ranked 319th in 3-point shooting at 31%.

Pick: Maryland -1 and Under 159.5 (Greg’s Handicap Maryland -4 and Total 154)

7:00 PM Eastern

BYU vs. Houston

Houston leads the country in fewest points per possession allowed on defense and is one of the best teams in the nation at slowing down the pace of games, ranking 358th in total possessions per game. Many of those possessions lead to nothing for opponents, as Houston is also 15th in the country in turnovers forced per possession. Additionally, BYU’s offense takes a dip away from home, entering Thursday 17th in the country in points per possession, but away from home, they score 14 points fewer per 100 possessions. However, BYU is strong at preventing second chances on defense, ranking 19th in road defensive rebound percentage.

Pick: BYU vs. Houston Under 135.5 (Greg’s Handicapped Total 132.5)

North Carolina vs. Duke

Duke may be without Cooper Flagg for this game, which is the most likely outcome. If he plays, he will likely not be 100%. This should lead to Duke relying more on their defense, which ranks second in the nation in points per possession allowed, but they may not be as efficient offensively. Entering the ACC Tournament, Duke leads the country in points per possession despite ranking only 276th in total possessions per game.

Pick: North Carolina vs. Duke Under 156.5 (Greg’s Handicapped Total 152)

7:30 PM Eastern

St. Joseph’s vs. Dayton 

St. Joseph’s defense is far stronger than Dayton’s, ranking 40th in points per possession allowed. Dayton is 165th and will not allow easy buckets inside to the Dayton offense. They rank 10th in the country in blocked shot percentage and 14th in opponent 2-point shooting percentage. Dayton’s defense is 316th in opponent 2-point shooting percentage in games played away from home.

Pick: St. Joseph’s +2 (Greg’s Handicap St. Joseph’s -2.5)

9:00 PM Eastern

Purdue vs. Michigan 

Michigan’s turnovers are a concern as the team ranks 336th in turnovers per possession committed on offense. The team has a big advantage inside as Purdue ranks 240th in defensive rebound percentage and 341st in opponent 2-point shooting percentage. Purdue’s 41.7% 3-point shooting at home, which ranks sixth in the nation, and sinks to 35.3% away from home.

Pick: Michigan +3 And Over 146.5 (Greg’s Handicap Michigan -1.5 and Total 151.5)

9:30 PM Eastern

Clemson vs. Louisville 

Clemson’s 24th-rated 3-point shooting percentage defense away from home at 30.2% looms even larger. Louisville’s Reyne Smith, who is fourth in the country in made 3-point shots per game, missed Thursday’s game due to an injury. Louisville is also 278th in opponent 3-point shooting percentage defense away from home. They should be exploited by a Clemson unit that is 29th in the nation in 3-point shooting percentage at 37.3%. Clemson is also 40th in the country in turnovers forced per possession for an added edge in the backcourt.

Pick: Clemson -1 (Greg’s Handicap Clemson -5.5)

9:30 PM Eastern

Kentucky vs. Alabama 

Even with Alabama ranking number one in total possessions per game, with such a high total, almost any morsel of defense makes it difficult to hit the Over. Both teams guard the 3-point arc well, with Alabama 19th in the nation in opponent 3-point shooting percentage at 30.4% and Kentucky 24th in the country in opponent 3-point shooting percentage at 30.6.

Pick: Kentucky vs. Alabama Under 180.5 (Greg’s Handicapped Total 176.5)

12:00 AM Eastern

Colorado State vs. Utah State 

Utah State will get more scoring opportunities with the lack of offensive rebounds Colorado State pulls in, ranking 267th in offensive rebound percentage. Their 39.3% 3-point shooting at home dipped to 31.9% away from home. Also, Utah State’s defense is 50th in turnovers forced per possession. Colorado State is 204th in this category. Though Utah State scores 13.7 points per 100 possessions fewer away from home than at home, the team is ninth nationally in points per possession on offense.

Pick: Utah State +1.5 and Under 148.5 (Greg’s Handicap Utah State -3.5 and Total 145.5)

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