NHL Predictions – Expert Picks on Thursday, March 13:
Here are tonight’s NHL predictions:
Tampa Bay Lightning (-170, 5.5) at Philadelphia Flyers
7 p.m. ET
It should be a motivated Lightning team that hits the ice tonight in Philadelphia. Tampa is coming off back-to-back losses, having been outscored 8-1. They will look to stop the bleeding against a Philly team that has dropped the first five games of their seven-game homestand, scoring just eight goals. As former Maple Leafs GM and now radio host on NHL Network Radio, Gord Stellick, once said, “If you’re going to suck, don’t suck at home.”
This is a great spot for the Lightning to return to their winning ways. The Flyers have surrendered four or more goals in four of their five losses during the current losing streak. For the season, the Flyers have given up four or more goals in 28 of their 38 losses and have lost by two or more goals 27 times this season. Tampa has scored four or more goals and covered the Puck Line (-1.5 goals) in 29 of their 37 wins this season.
Tampa could be without Nikita Kucherov (28 goals), who left Tampa’s game on Sunday in the second period. Coach John Cooper did not have an update on his status for tonight’s game. Even without Kucherov, Tampa has plenty of players to pick up the offense. Jake Guentzel and Brayden Point are tied for the team lead with 32 goals, and both have scored two goals in three games against Flyers goalie for tonight, Samuel Ersson. It is also Point’s birthday today. Nick Paul is one goal shy of his second consecutive twenty-goal season. He also has two goals in three games against Ersson.
NHL Predictions: Tampa Bay Lightning TT over 3.5 (+118) – 1 unit
Tampa Bay Lightning -1.5 goals (+150) – 1 unit
Nick Paul anytime goal (+340) – ¼ unit
Brayden Point anytime goal (+150) – ¼ unit
Jake Guentzel anytime goal (+155) – ¼ unit
Vegas Golden Knights (-170, 6.5) at Columbus Blue Jackets
7 p.m. ET
After winning four straight, the Golden Knights hope to halt a two-game losing streak when they visit the Blue Jackets tonight. After a home and home sweep of the Detroit Red Wings, Columbus lost three of their last four games and returned to Nationwide Arena to face the Vegas Golden Knights.
The Jackets are the number one team in the NHL to the full game going Over the total (38-25-2), and their 21 first period Overs at home is second only to Chicago (23) and Washington (23). Columbus defenseman Zach Werenski trails only Nathan MacKinnon for most points at home. Werenski has 48 points at home (13 goals, 34 assists) and has recorded a point in 23 of his last 24 home games (12 multi-point games). Kent Johnson has points in 17 of his last 20 games. Books are offering his point prop right around even money. You could split your wager between an anytime goal and to get over ½ an assist, with both being at big plus money, but I feel a full unit play on over half point is the better way to go. During his current point streak, he has only had six games where he has had a goal and an assist, so if he doesn’t cash both, you cut into your profits.
Jack Eichel has eight assists in his last six games. Forward Pavel Dorofeyev’s 15 goals on the road are tops on the team.
NHL Predictions: 1st period Over 1.5 goals (-140) – 1 unit
Jack Eichel Over ½ powerplay point (+195) – ½ unit
Pavel Dorofeyev anytime goal (+200) – ¼ unit
Zach Werenski Over ½ assist (-120) – ½ unit
Zach Werenski Over 1.5 points (+290) – ¼ unit
Matthieu Olivier anytime goal (+450) – ¼ unit
Kent Johnson Over ½ point (+104) – ¼ unit
St. Louis Blues (-120, 5.5) at Pittsburgh Penguins
7 p.m. ET
If you like St. Louis tonight as I do and grabbed this game on the overnight line, you are feeling good about yourself. The Blues opened as a small underdog (-105) and have been bet up to a short road favorite (-120). The Penguins are coming off a pair of wins over Minnesota and Vegas and could have easily lost both games. On Tuesday, Pittsburgh was outshot 37-17 for the game and 19-4 in the third period. Vegas broke through with the tying goal with six seconds left in regulation before losing in overtime. Pittsburgh has given four or more goals in 37 of their 41 losses.
The Blues are coming off a 2-1 overtime loss in Los Angeles to the Kings but have won six of their last eight games. St. Louis has won three of their last four games following a defeat. The Blues, Robert Thomas has a goal and seven assists in his last nine games against the Penguins. Pittsburgh’s Sidney Crosby has 11 goals and 22 career points against the Blues and has four goals in his last two games overall. Bryan Rust has four goals in five games versus Blues expected starting goalie Jordan Binnington.
From our good buddies, @PsuOtto and @RogersPicks, the Blues are on a 9-2 run to the first period Over 1.5 goals.
NHL Predictions: St. Louis Blues ML (-115) – 1 unit
St. Louis Blues/Pittsburgh Penguins 1st period Over 1.5 goals (-118) -1 unit
St. Louis Blues TT over 3.5 (+138) – 1 unit
Robert Thomas Over ½ assist (-102) – ½ unit
Sidney Crosby anytime goal (+175) – ¼ unit
Bryan Rust anytime goal (+230) – ¼ unit
Edmonton Oilers (-134, 6) at New Jersey Devils
7 p.m. ET
The Oilers are coming off a disappointing loss in Buffalo on Monday that coach Kris Noblauch said was all about turning over the puck way too much. “I think we controlled most of the play, I think we had a lot of time in the offensive zone, I think we had more chances. In the end, the Oilers lost for the seventh time in their last 10 games.
New Jersey has won two straight after dropping their previous three games. The Devils are 15-12 as the home betting favorite but have lost both games this season as home underdogs, scoring one goal in each (3-1 to Vegas and 6-1 to the Jets). Six of New Jersey’s last eight losses to Western Conference teams have been by two or more goals.
Overall, the Devils are 19-6 to the Under when playing Western Conference opponents. Conversely, Oilers games have gone Over the total in three straight this season following a loss and Edmonton has cashed the first period Over in 17 of their last 21 games overall.
NHL Predictions: Edmonton Oilers/New Jersey Devils 1st period Over 1.5 goals (-130) – 1 unit
Jesper Bratt anytime goal (+280) – ¼ unit
Washington Capitals at Los Angeles Kings (-125, 5.5)
10:30 p.m. ET
The Ovechkin chase of Wayne Gretzky’s all-time goals record moves up the 405 freeway from Anaheim to Los Angeles. Ovechkin is still nine goals away from immorality. I will once again continue to ride all the Ovechkin goal and shots on goal props. But it’s not just Ovechkin for Caps props. Pierre-Luc Dubois makes his return to Los Angeles and has been on a roll with points in eight of his last 11 games. Aliaksei Protas has seven points in his last three games. The Caps’ first period Over has cashed in 12 of their last 14 games. Washington has given up three or more goals in 12 of their last 15 games. The Kings Quinton Byfield has goals in four straight games. If Logan Thompson gets the start tonight, then I will be an Andrei Kuzmenko anytime goal. Kuzmenko has four goals in four games vs. Thompson.
NHL Predictions: 1st period Over 1.5 (-124) – 1 unit
Alex Ovechkin anytime goal (+145) – ¼ unit
Alex Ovechkin 3rd period goal (+450) – ¼ unit
Alex Ovechkin last goal of the game (+850) – ¼ unit
Alex Ovechkin Over 3.5 SOG (+108) – ½ unit
Alex Ovechkin Over 4.5 SOG (+240) – ¼ unit
Aliaksei Protas Over ½ point (+122) – ¼ unit
Pierre-Luc Dubois Over ½ point (-113) – ¼ unit
Quinton Byfield anytime goal (+330) – ¼ unit
Andrei Kuzmenko anytime goal (+330) – ¼ unit (only if Logan Thompson starts)
