College Basketball Picks Today:
Expert college basketball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top college basketball picks today for Sunday, January 11.
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12:00 PM Eastern
Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Iowa Hawkeyes
Iowa and Illinois are both efficient defensively, with Iowa ranking 16th in points per possession allowed and Illinois 45th, but they play opposite styles. Iowa is seventh nationally in turnovers generated per possession, while Illinois ranks 363rd. Illinois does an excellent job taking care of the ball offensively, ranking 18th in fewest turnovers per possession, and is 17th in opponent 2-point shooting percentage, but is more vulnerable inside, ranking 123rd in opponent 2-point shooting percentage.
Picks: Illinois +1.5 and Under 144.5 (Greg’s Handicap: Illinois -2, Total 142)
St. Joseph’s Hawks vs. Richmond Spiders
St. Joseph’s lost top scorer Deuce Jones just before the calendar turned to 2026, further hurting an offense that was already struggling, ranking 361st in 3-point shooting percentage at 26.8% and 228th in points per possession overall. Richmond is playing faster than in past seasons, ranking 141st in possessions per game, but has slowed significantly in recent games, playing roughly five possessions per game slower over the past five contests than in their first 11.
Pick: St. Joseph’s vs. Richmond Under 151.5 (Greg’s Handicap: Total 148)
2:00 PM Eastern
Siena Saints vs. Mount St. Mary’s Mountaineers
Mount St. Mary’s has struggled with turnovers on both ends of the floor, ranking 364th in turnovers per possession on offense and 294th in turnovers generated on defense, falling to 340th in turnovers generated on defense at home. Siena excels in this area, ranking 24th in turnovers generated per possession away from home and 25th in points per possession allowed in road games. Siena is also the stronger rebounding team, ranking 75th compared to Mount St. Mary’s 129th, which is magnified in a low-possession game with Siena ranking 352nd in possessions per game.
Picks: Siena -2.5 and Under 139.5 (Greg’s Handicap: Siena -7, Total 133)
Merrimack Warriors vs. St. Peter’s Peacocks
Merrimack is typically the stronger team at generating turnovers, but in this matchup that edge belongs to St. Peter’s, who ranks 15th in turnovers forced per possession compared to Merrimack’s 67th. Merrimack is also 364th out of 365 Division I teams in rebound percentage, setting up a St. Peter’s team that ranks 77th in offensive rebound percentage to generate multiple scoring chances in a low-possession game, with St. Peter’s ranking 300th and Merrimack 351st in possessions per game.
Picks: St. Peter’s -1.5 and Under 130.5 (Greg’s Handicap: St. Peter’s -4.5, Total 128.5)
Niagara Purple Eagles vs. Manhattan Jaspers
Manhattan has struggled defensively, ranking 323rd in points per possession allowed and 360th in defensive rebound percentage, with 38.7% of opponents’ missed shots becoming offensive rebounds. Niagara’s offense has been a mess away from home, ranking 342nd in points per possession and 353rd in offensive rebound percentage, while playing at a very slow pace, ranking 354th in possessions per game.
Pick: Manhattan -6.5 (Greg’s Handicap: Manhattan -11.5)
3:00 PM Eastern
North Texas Mean Green vs. Wichita State Shockers
North Texas has scored 64 points or fewer in every road or neutral-site game this season, ranking 357th in points per possession away from home. Both teams play at a slow pace, with Wichita State ranking 283rd and North Texas 331st in possessions per game, but Wichita State maximizes those possessions, ranking eighth in offensive rebound percentage with 39.1% of missed shots resulting in an offensive rebound.
Pick: Wichita State -6.5 (Greg’s Handicap: Wichita State -10.5)
IU Indianapolis Jaguars vs. UW Milwaukee Panthers
IU Indianapolis still ranks sixth nationally in possessions per game despite slowing from their early-season pace and is highly inefficient defensively, ranking 340th in points per possession allowed. The Jaguars gamble for turnovers, ranking 43rd in turnovers generated per possession, but allow open looks when they do not force one. That sets up well for a UW Milwaukee offense that ranks 47th in fewest turnovers per possession and 86th in offensive rebound percentage, while IU Indianapolis is 353rd in defensive rebound percentage.
Picks: UW Milwaukee -11.5 and Over 164.5 (Greg’s Handicap: UW Milwaukee -13, Total 171)
5:00 PM Eastern
Cincinnati Bearcats vs. Central Florida Knights
Cincinnati has increased its tempo from past seasons, ranking 105th in possessions per game, but has reverted toward a slower style recently, playing about seven possessions per game slower over the past three games. The offense has struggled, ranking 250th in points per possession, but the defense has been elite on the glass, ranking eighth in defensive rebound percentage overall and third away from home. Central Florida presents a challenge offensively, ranking 33rd in 3-point shooting percentage and 11th in offensive rebound percentage.
Picks: Central Florida -3.5 and Under 150.5 (Greg’s Handicap: Central Florida -7, Total 147)
