College Basketball Picks Today:
Expert college basketball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top college basketball picks today for Thursday, March 19.
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12:15 PM Eastern
TCU Horned Frogs vs. Ohio State Buckeyes
TCU’s strength is forcing turnovers, ranking 31st in turnovers per possession on defense, but they face an Ohio State team that excels in the fundamentals, ranking 21st in free throw shooting percentage at 77.5% and 19th in two-point shooting percentage. Both teams are similar in ball security, with TCU ranking 103rd and Ohio State 98th in turnovers per possession, but TCU is just 119th in points per possession on offense while Ohio State ranks 32nd.
Picks: Ohio State -2.5 and Under 146.5 (Greg’s Handicap Ohio State -5 and Total 143)
12:40 PM Eastern
Troy Trojans vs. Nebraska Cornhuskers
Nebraska invites opponents to shoot from three-point range, with 49.3% of opponent field goal attempts coming from beyond the arc, the fifth-highest rate in the nation. That does not favor a Troy team that ranks 219th in three-point shooting percentage at 33.2%, dropping to 31.9% away from home. Meanwhile, Nebraska’s offense has traveled well, ranking 32nd in points per possession in road and neutral games.
Pick: Nebraska -12.5 (Greg’s Handicap Nebraska -15.5)
1:30 PM Eastern
South Florida Bulls vs. Louisville Cardinals
Louisville will be without assists leader Mikel Brown, which significantly impacts their offensive output. With Brown, they scored at least 74 points in 20 of 21 games, but without him they have failed to reach that mark in four of 12 games. They face a South Florida team that pushes tempo, ranking sixth in possessions per game, and creates second chances, ranking 16th in offensive rebound percentage.
Pick: South Florida +4.5 (Greg’s Handicap South Florida -1)
2:50 PM Eastern
Siena Saints vs. Duke Blue Devils
Siena plays at an extremely slow pace, ranking 359th in possessions per game, and faces a Duke team that is also methodical and elite defensively, allowing the fewest points per possession in the nation. Duke ranks 277th in tempo and is dealing with an injury to starting guard Caleb Foster, which contributed to recent offensive struggles in the ACC Tournament.
Picks: Siena +28.5 and Under 136.5 (Greg’s Handicap Siena +26.5 and Total 132.5)
4:15 PM Eastern
North Dakota State Bison vs. Michigan State Spartans
Michigan State is elite at limiting second chances, allowing opponents to grab just 19.4% of their missed shots as offensive rebounds away from home, the best mark in the nation. North Dakota State holds an edge in turnover metrics, ranking 110th in offensive turnovers and 43rd in turnovers forced away from home, while Michigan State ranks 215th in ball security.
Picks: North Dakota State +16.5 and Under 143.5 (Greg’s Handicap North Dakota State +14.5 and Total 140.5)
4:25 PM Eastern
Hawaii Rainbow Warriors vs. Arkansas Razorbacks
Arkansas has a major offensive edge, ranking third in points per possession while committing the fewest turnovers in the nation. Hawaii struggles offensively, ranking 178th in points per possession and 318th in turnovers, but counters with elite defense, ranking eighth in points per possession allowed. Hawaii also has an edge on the glass, ranking 23rd in rebound percentage compared to Arkansas at 121st.
Picks: Hawaii +15.5 and Under 160.5 (Greg’s Handicap Hawaii +8.5 and Total 154.5)
6:50 PM Eastern
VCU Rams vs. North Carolina Tar Heels
North Carolina will again be without top scorer Caleb Wilson, but they have managed well without him, remaining strong inside with a ranking of 37th in two-point shooting percentage. They also take care of the ball, ranking 22nd in fewest turnovers per possession, compared to VCU at 72nd, and hold an edge on the glass, ranking 52nd in rebound percentage while VCU ranks 99th.
Pick: North Carolina -2.5 (Greg’s Handicap North Carolina -4.5)
7:10 PM Eastern
Howard Bison vs. Michigan Wolverines
Howard has been elite defensively away from home, ranking third in points per possession allowed, but struggled in their lone game against a high-level opponent, allowing 93 points to Duke. Michigan plays at a much faster tempo, ranking 49th in possessions per game, and dominates inside, ranking fourth in two-point shooting percentage.
Pick: Howard vs. Michigan Over 151.5 (Greg’s Handicapped Total 157.5)
7:25 PM Eastern
Texas Longhorns vs. BYU Cougars
Texas enters with defensive concerns, ranking 361st in opponent three-point shooting percentage and 346th in points per possession allowed away from home. BYU also has defensive issues, allowing at least 73 points in seven of nine games since losing Richie Saunders, and is down to just two players averaging over 8.5 points per game. Texas ranks 26th in points per possession on offense.
Picks: Texas +2.5 and Over 158 (Greg’s Handicap Texas -1 and Total 161)
7:35 PM Eastern
Texas A&M Aggies vs. St. Mary’s Gaels
Texas A&M is at a disadvantage on the glass, with St. Mary’s ranking fourth in rebound percentage compared to Texas A&M at 185th. St. Mary’s is also strong defensively, ranking 19th in points per possession allowed and 40th in opponent three-point shooting percentage. Texas A&M shoots well from deep, ranking 46th in three-point percentage, but their defensive turnover creation drops significantly away from home.
Picks: St. Mary’s -2.5 and Over 147 (Greg’s Handicap St. Mary’s -4 and Total 152)
9:45 PM Eastern
Saint Louis Billikens vs. Georgia Bulldogs
Saint Louis is one of the most balanced teams in the nation, ranking 15th in points per possession on offense and 20th in points per possession allowed, with a deep rotation of eight players averaging at least 6.8 points. They should generate second chances against a Georgia team that allows opponents to grab 32.3% of missed shots, ranking 323rd nationally. Saint Louis also has a major edge from three-point range, ranking second at 40.5% while Georgia ranks 170th at 34.1%.
Picks: Saint Louis +2.5 and Under 169.5 (Greg’s Handicap Saint Louis -2 and Total 164)
10:00 PM Eastern
Kennesaw State Owls vs. Gonzaga Bulldogs
Gonzaga leads the nation in points per possession allowed on defense but has been significantly worse away from home, allowing 18.7 more points per 100 possessions. Offensively, they have not shot as well from three, ranking 177th at 34%. Kennesaw State can compete on the glass, ranking 40th in offensive rebound percentage compared to Gonzaga at 32nd.
Pick: Kennesaw State +21.5 (Greg’s Handicap Kennesaw State +15.5)
