College Basketball Picks Today:
Expert college basketball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top college basketball picks today for Thursday, November 20.
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6:00 PM Eastern
Purdue Boilermakers vs. Memphis Tigers
Memphis is coming off a rough 92–78 home loss to UNLV over the weekend, with 18 turnovers being a major culprit. They should have cleaner possessions against a Purdue defense that ranks 345th in turnovers per possession as they look to keep up with a Purdue offense that is 15th in points per possession but just 166th in points per possession allowed on defense.
Pick: Memphis +15.5 (Greg’s Handicap: Memphis +9)
7:00 PM Eastern
Northeastern Huskies vs. Princeton Tigers
Princeton’s offense has not looked the same after losing their top three scorers from last season, ranking 317th in points per possession and relying heavily on the 3-point shot, with 38.2% of their points coming from deep (58th nationally). They face a Northeastern defense allowing opponents to shoot just 32.2% from three. Neither team plays fast, with Northeastern ranking 241st in possessions per game and Princeton coming off a season in which they were 321st in pace.
Pick: Under 151.5 (Greg’s Handicapped Total: 144)
Tennessee State Tigers vs. Tennessee Volunteers
Tennessee State won’t win the battle on the glass against a Volunteers team currently second nationally in rebound percentage, but they’ll hang in better than most mid-majors after ranking 62nd in that category last season. Their weakness—turnovers, where they were 354th last season—gets somewhat neutralized by a Tennessee team breaking in a new guard rotation and sitting 262nd in turnovers per possession as they work through growing pains.
Picks: Tennessee State +32.5 and Under 151.5 (Greg’s Handicap: Tennessee State +28.5, Total 148.5)
New Mexico Lobos vs. Nebraska Cornhuskers
New Mexico has formed a strong defensive identity under first-year coach Eric Olen, ranking 31st in points per possession allowed and 18th in turnovers forced—a continuation of the pressure his UC San Diego teams applied last year. Nebraska has allowed 66 points or fewer in three of their first four games, and both teams are playing at a mid-tempo pace with Nebraska 187th in possessions per game and New Mexico 238th.
Pick: Under 152.5 (Greg’s Handicapped Total: 144.5)
Long Island Sharks vs. Fordham Rams
Fordham is playing extremely slowly under first-year coach Mike Magpayo, ranking 351st in possessions per game. Long Island sits 57th in pace, but their metrics are heavily warped from playing an IU Indy team with one of the wildest styles in college basketball. LIU also isn’t doing the little things well, averaging 16.5 turnovers per game and shooting just 56.3% from the free-throw line (361st). Fordham should also see positive regression from their current 24.6% 3-point percentage.
Picks: Fordham -3 and Under 152 (Greg’s Handicap: Fordham -5.5, Total 143.5)
Robert Morris Colonials vs. St. Bonaventure Bonnies
St. Bonaventure looks like its usual slow, methodical self, ranking 343rd in possessions per game while controlling the glass at a top-25 rate. They should make life difficult for a Robert Morris offense that lost its main ball handlers from last season and now ranks 364th out of 365 Division I teams in turnovers per possession.
Picks: St. Bonaventure -10.5 and Under 146.5 (Greg’s Handicap: St. Bonaventure -15, Total 141)
Mercyhurst Lakers vs. Miami OH RedHawks
Mercyhurst should see opponents’ 3-point percentage rise from the current 26.9%, as this is largely the same group that ranked 291st in opponent 3-point shooting last season and 286th in defensive points per possession. They face a Miami OH team that ranked 15th nationally in 3-point shooting last season (38.2%) and is off to a 36.4% start with much of the same backcourt. The RedHawks are 80th in points per possession on offense to open the season.
Picks: Miami OH -16 and Over 141.5 (Greg’s Handicap: Miami OH -18.5, Total 150.5)
Elon Phoenix vs. Miami Hurricanes
Miami’s defense has been impressive early under new coach Jai Lucas, ranking 27th in points per possession allowed. The Hurricanes are built around strong post play, ranking 60th in defensive rebound percentage and 18th in percentage of field goal attempts allowed at the rim. Elon has scored 80+ in every game this season, but all three Division I opponents they’ve faced rank 225th or worse in defensive points per possession.
Picks: Miami -20 and Under 162.5 (Greg’s Handicap: Miami -24.5, Total 152.5)
Arkansas–Pine Bluff Lions vs. Marshall Thundering Herd
Arkansas–Pine Bluff, after ranking 20th in possessions per game last season, has slowed to 76th this year. They face a Marshall team that should dominate the interior with the addition of 7-foot-4 Matthew Van Komen (7.9 rebounds, 2.3 blocks per game last season at Elon). Both teams struggle with dead possessions: Pine Bluff is 296th in turnovers per possession and Marshall is 333rd.
Pick: Under 165.5 (Greg’s Handicapped Total: 155.5)
9:00 PM Eastern
Rider Broncs vs. Houston Cougars
Houston is known best for its defense—first nationally in points per possession allowed last season while ranking 359th in pace—but they also had an efficient offense that ranked 26th in points per possession. Their current 28.7% 3-point shooting should regress positively against a Rider defense ranked 360th nationally in points per possession allowed and one that has given up 80+ to every Division I opponent.
Pick: Over 131.5 (Greg’s Handicapped Total: 135)
9:30 PM Eastern
Kansas State Wildcats vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs
Both teams have struggled with turnovers—Mississippi State is 324th in offensive turnovers per possession and Kansas State is 278th. However, Kansas State generates more pressure (142nd in turnovers forced) compared to Mississippi State (300th). Mississippi State should also see regression in opponents shooting just 24.6% from three after ranking 301st in that category last season, and Kansas State’s 45.7% 3-point shooting is due for its own regression.
Picks: Kansas State +3 and Under 162.5 (Greg’s Handicap: Kansas State -1, Total 157)
10:00 PM Eastern
St. Joseph’s Hawks vs. UNLV Rebels
UNLV already has two outright home losses as a favorite of more than seven points and is banged up, with guard Myles Che and 7-footer Emmanuel Stephen yet to play this season. Ladji Dembele also missed Saturday’s win over Memphis after starting the first three games. St. Joseph’s is in transition after the abrupt September departure of coach Billy Lange but should get a boost against a UNLV defense that ranks 191st in points per possession allowed and 349th in fouls per possession committed—a major benefit for a St. Joseph’s team that is 14th nationally in free throw percentage (81.8%).
Pick: St. Joseph’s +9 (Greg’s Handicap: St. Joseph’s +3.5)
