College Basketball Picks Today:
Expert college basketball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top college basketball picks today for Wednesday, November 19.
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6:30 PM Eastern
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders vs. Michigan Wolverines
Much like last season, the only thing holding back Michigan is turnovers, ranking 279th in turnovers per possession. However, they’ve cranked up their tempo to rank 24th in total possessions per game and face a Middle Tennessee team with just one Division I game under their belt—a 77–72 win over Evansville over the weekend. Middle Tennessee has a smaller roster that will have a tough time matching Michigan on the glass, as Michigan ranks ninth in rebound percentage. But Middle Tennessee’s forte of generating turnovers—18.3 per game this season—should lead to fast-break points.
Pick: Over 156.5 (Greg’s Handicapped Total 160.5)
Harvard Crimson vs. Penn State Nittany Lions
Despite a new-look backcourt primarily made up of freshmen, Penn State has taken great care of the ball, ranking 11th in fewest turnovers per possession. They face a Harvard squad that returns its top three scorers from last season and ranks 97th in points per possession allowed, but the Crimson have played MIT, New Hampshire, Army, Marist, and Northeastern—teams without the offensive firepower of a power-conference opponent. Penn State’s tempo should pick up from their current 351st in possessions per game, as Mike Rhoades–coached teams have finished in the top 78 in every season he’s been at the helm.
Picks: Harvard +13.5 and Over 142.5 (Greg’s Handicap Harvard +10 and Total 154)
7:00 PM Eastern
Villanova Wildcats vs. La Salle Explorers
La Salle will have their hands full with Villanova forward Duke Brennan on the boards, who is averaging 14.8 rebounds per game. However, La Salle is 82nd in defensive rebound percentage and will look to exploit a Villanova perimeter defense that has been suspect at best, allowing opponents to shoot 42.5% from 3-point range and ranking 355th in percentage of opponents’ field goal attempts that they block.
Pick: La Salle +11.5 (Greg’s Handicap La Salle +6.5)
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs vs. Indiana State Sycamores
Louisiana Tech has been incredibly low scoring this season due to a variety of factors. While they rank just 324th in possessions per game, much of that is a byproduct of the schedule they’ve played. They should see positive regression from their 27.1% 3-point shooting and negative regression from opponents shooting just 25.8% from deep. Indiana State was 311th in opponent 3-point shooting percentage last season at 35.9% and is giving up a near-identical 36% this year. The Sycamores should also see improvement from their current 26.9% 3-point shooting after hitting 35% last season with many returning pieces. They’ve also allowed at least 92 points in two of their three Division I games.
Pick: Over 146 (Greg’s Handicapped Total 154.5)
Chattanooga Mocs vs. South Carolina State Bulldogs
South Carolina State lost much of last season’s depth-heavy roster that relied on constant lineup changes, and it has shown—they rank 362nd in points per possession on offense and 305th in points per possession allowed on defense. Chattanooga was negatively impacted by having to play St. Mary’s and UNLV on back-to-back nights during a West Coast trip, but their offensive mark of 228th in points per possession should improve now that they’re home and back on a normal schedule after ranking 23rd nationally last season.
Pick: Chattanooga -9.5 (Greg’s Handicap Chattanooga -13.5)
VMI Keydets vs. Richmond Spiders
For a second straight season, Richmond is struggling with perimeter shooting, making just 27.8% of their 3-point attempts against Division I teams after ranking 314th in that category last season. VMI should benefit from Richmond’s lack of interior strength, as the Spiders are 359th in blocked-shot percentage to begin the year after ranking 334th a season ago.
Pick: VMI +12.5 and Under 153.5 (Greg’s Handicap VMI +9.5 and Total 143.5)
Valparaiso Beacons vs. Cleveland State Vikings
Valparaiso is having issues inside, ranking 345th in 2-point shooting percentage and 239th in rebound percentage. Cleveland State’s defensive issues—341st in points per possession allowed—should be masked by a Valparaiso roster that turned over nearly its entire guard rotation, leading to them ranking 285th in points per possession to start the season.
Picks: Cleveland State -3.5 and Under 157.5 (Greg’s Handicap Cleveland State -8 and Total 152)
Mount St. Mary’s Mountaineers vs. Maryland Terrapins
Mount St. Mary’s is allowing opponents to have clean possessions, ranking 346th in turnovers forced per possession. Maryland has generated offense through free throws, getting the seventh-highest percentage of points from the line in the nation at 30.4%. They should be aided by a Mount St. Mary’s team that ranks 320th in fouls committed per possession.
Pick: Over 136.5 (Greg’s Handicapped Total 141.5)
8:00 PM Eastern
North Dakota Hawks vs. Creighton Bluejays
The North Dakota offense has taken a significant step back from last season, ranking 250th in points per possession, with most of their issues coming inside. They rank 331st in offensive rebound percentage, grabbing only 20.5% of their misses, and are allowing opponents to shoot 66.4% on 2-point attempts—359th nationally. Creighton’s offensive metrics are largely warped by their 90–63 loss to Gonzaga. They scored 84 against Maryland Eastern Shore in their last game and opened the season with 92 points against South Dakota.
Picks: Creighton -25.5 and Over 155.5 (Greg’s Handicap Creighton -31 and Total 163)
9:00 PM Eastern
Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Alabama Crimson Tide
There appears to be a chance Illinois forward Tomislav Ivisic plays, but even if he does, he’s unlikely to be at 100 percent due to a knee injury. Alabama, meanwhile, continues to run one of the highest-octane offenses in the country after leading the nation in possessions per game last season. In their lone road game, they put up 103 points on St. John’s. Illinois is fourth nationally in points per possession on offense even with Ivisic missing multiple games, but defensively they aren’t pressuring anyone, ranking 358th in turnovers forced per possession.
Picks: Alabama +3.5 and Over 179.5 (Greg’s Handicap Alabama -1.5 and Total 181.5)
Jackson State Tigers vs. Auburn Tigers
After a very close loss, Auburn has a potential sleepy spot before the Players Era Tournament in Las Vegas next week. Jackson State has struggled without guard Keiveon Hunt, losing their three games to Illinois, Louisville, and Louisiana Tech by an average of 37 points. They should, however, benefit from Auburn losing many key pieces from last year’s Final Four team and shooting just 29.2% from 3-point range so far.
Pick: Jackson State +31.5 (Greg’s Handicap Jackson State +25.5)
10:00 PM Eastern
Campbell Fighting Camels vs. Weber State Wildcats
Weber State is currently 19th in the nation in total possessions per game after ranking 297th last season, but that number is inflated by their overtime game against Utah. They face a Campbell team that traditionally plays slow and controlled, ranking 301st in possessions per game a season ago. Campbell guards the perimeter well, ranking 37th in opponent 3-point shooting last year, but they’ve struggled with turnovers, ranking 308th in turnovers per possession.
Pick: Under 155.5 (Greg’s Handicapped Total 145.5)
