College basketball best bets and projections

Feels like it’s been forever since we haven’t had 1-1 or 2-1 night in men’s hoops, but last night we finally had another sweep, which was encouraging because I’m testing a formula tweak (as I often am) to TSI that is looking good in the early returns. I sat yesterday out on the women’s side due to the very small slate and no actionable edges, but I hope to be back in the saddle today, so be sure to follow me on X (@TShoeIndex) to get those plays as I make them. This Tuesday slate is substantially more appetizing than yesterday, so let’s get to the projections and let’s cash some college basketball best bets.

Compare my odds to the college basketball odds (Vegas odds) and also take a look at the college basketball betting splits for additional info.


These “Projections and Best Bets” pieces will be occurring Monday-Thursday on, so buckle up and get ready to take advantage of having the T Shoe Index at your disposal from now on. 

As a refresher, the T Shoe Index (TSI) is my proprietary rating system that I use for college football, NFL, men’s and women’s college basketball, and WNBA. It is a tempo and opponent-adjusted rating that allows us to answer the question, “How many points would team A be expected to score and allow vs Team B”, based on a myriad of statistical factors. 

Here are the TSI projections for today, January 23rd:

How to read this sheet: the “TSI Projected Spread” is the projected point margin based on TSI ratings. If the number is positive, that indicates Team 1 is projected to win by that margin, if the number is negative, that indicates Team 2 is projected to win by that margin.


Air ForceNevada-Las Vegas-16.8139.3
Ball StateBuffalo2.9144.9
BelmontIllinois State-0.1145.6
Boise StateFresno State11.9140.4
Boston CollegeVirginia Tech-3.5147.6
Bowling Green StateKent State0.2149.7
Brigham YoungHouston0.1135.5
Central FloridaWest Virginia11.3138.2
Central MichiganMiami (OH)1.6140.1
DaytonLa Salle6.6144.4
DuquesneSt. Bonaventure0.4141.2
Eastern MichiganWestern Michigan-11.5146.7
EvansvilleNorthern Iowa-10.4147.7
Florida StateSyracuse-4.9148.2
Georgia TechPittsburgh-5.9144.1
KentuckySouth Carolina5.2155.5
Loyola (IL)Virginia Commonwealth-4.2138.0
MassachusettsSaint Joseph’s3.5151.6
MissouriTexas A&M-8.8144.4
NebraskaOhio State0.4145.5
Northern IllinoisToledo-5.5158.5
Oklahoma StateTCU-7.8146.3
PortlandSan Diego-2.1153.0
San Diego StateWyoming15.0145.5


BYU +3

Western Michigan -6


Central FloridaTCU-11.9126.5
Chicago StatePurdue Fort Wayne-26.2136.0
Colorado StateNevada10.4133.2