T Shoe Index CBB projections for December 5
November and December make for my busiest time of year as someone who created predictive models for college football, NFL, and men’s and women’s college basketball. As you can imagine, it is quite the undertaking, and as I explained in my T Shoe Index Introduction, I have no background in statistics, coding, or anything that would necessarily ease the burden of the time constraint doing four sports would place on a guy who uses Google Sheets to house all of my data.
College Basketball Odds | College Basketball Betting Splits | College Basketball Picks
However, thanks to some research and self-teaching, I’ve been able to automate enough to allow me not to go completely insane. Enough about me. The reason you’re here is because you’ve probably followed my football projections and bets and trust my process enough to want to get in on the college basketball action, which despite me really not watching much college basketball at all, has been by far my most profitable sport in recent years. I’m not sure if that’s because because is, for all intents and purposes, a simpler sport than football in terms of the data I use, or because I don’t spend entire Saturdays watching basketball and that likely allows me to be even more trusting of the data because I couldn’t tell you one player on Mississippi Valley State, with all due respect.
Lines move more rapidly in basketball, so I will do my best to give out lines that haven’t moved as much at the time of publication, but for all of my line-opening bets (usually the night before the game), be sure to follow me on X (@TShoeIndex).
Also, my basketball projections are derived from on-court data from the season only, so there are no recruiting rankings or preseason expectations baked in. To account for the scheduling disparity with so many teams, I add another iteration of opponent adjustment on top of the original layer that I use for, say, WNBA projections where there is more parity.
The exciting thing about basketball season is that there is literally action every day, and once football is over you will be able to find my daily projections and best bets here at VSiN 2-3 times per week, so be on the lookout for that.
Now, for today’s projections and best bets:
How to interpret the projections: If the projected spread is a positive number, that indicates the team on the left is the projected favorite. If it’s a negative number, that indicates the team on the right is the projected favorite. So, for today, Bradley is projected to beat Akron by 3.4, for example.
