VSiN Analytics NBA Report for Monday, December 4

66
 

 

 

The following is a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games on Monday, December 4, 2023. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the Betting Splits pages. These pages we have built utilize the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detail the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, moneylines, and totals. In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data developed in the 2022-23 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:00 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems until tip-off for best usage.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2:  The number from system #1 is a little higher for road wagers. When 65% or more of the handle was on the road side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 95-69 ATS (57.9%) last season. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. This group was pretty sharp last season.

System Matches (PLAY): BOSTON

 

At this point, unlike the football studies I conducted, it’s safe to assume that being part of the majority handle of DraftKings bettors on ATS wagers is a relatively sound strategy.

This last system involves totals.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: In NBA games with extremely high totals last season, or those more than 242, the majority handle bettors were 18-7 (72%).

System Matches (PLAY OVER): BOS-IND

 

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.

We will be tracking 50 top scheduling situations all season long!

* Home teams on One Day Rest are 41-27 SU and 40-27-1 ATS (59.7%) hosting teams playing on a 3rd Game in 8+ Days game over the last three seasons.

12/4: INDIANA vs. Boston

System Match: PLAY INDIANA (+6 vs BOS)

 

* Under the total was 25-15 (62.5%) over the last two seasons when the home team was on One Day Rest and the road team was playing a 3rdin8+Days game.

12/4: Under the total in BOSTON-INDIANA

System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 242.5)

 

Top Team-Specific Scheduling Situation Trends

The following are some of the top team-specific trends that have developed in the NBA over the last few seasons when considering scheduling situations. Like the league-wide systems introduced earlier, naturally, there are reasons that certain teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.

* INDIANA is 53-29 Over the total at home in the One Day Rest scenario over the last three seasons

12/4: OVER the total in INDIANA-BOSTON

System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 242.5)

 

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details five betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last three NBA seasons.

NO QUALIFYING TEAM STRENGTH SYSTEMS TODAY

 

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last three seasons unless noted.

BIG TIME OFFENSIVE PERFORMANCES

Teams that scored 134 points or more in any given game have had trouble duplicating that success in their next outing, as they are just 185-188 SU and 155-208-10 ATS (42.7%) in the follow-up contest.

System Match: FADE INDIANA (+6 vs BOS)

 

NBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more free throw attempts trended Under the total the next game, 229-174 (56.8%) since 2021.

System Matches: PLAY UNDER in BOS-IND (o/u at 242.5), PLAY UNDER in NOP-SAC (o/u at 236.5)

 

NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 165-183 SU and 150-196-2 ATS (43.4%) in the next game.

System Match: FADE INDIANA (+6 vs BOS)

 

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details nine betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.

NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS TODAY

 

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).

Today’s Top UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:

Ratings Matches: NONE TODAY

 

Today’s Top UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:

Ratings Matches: 1. BOSTON -6 (+1.2)

 

Today’s Top UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:

Ratings Matches: 1. NEW ORLEANS +3.5 (+2.0)

 

Today’s Top UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:

Ratings Matches: 1. BOSTON -6 (+0.4)

 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:

Ratings Matches: NONE TODAY

 

Today’s Top 2 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:

Ratings Matches: 1. BOS-IND UNDER 242.5 (-3.7), 2. NOP-SAC UNDER 236.5 (-2.1)

 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:

Ratings Matches: NONE TODAY

 

Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:

Ratings Matches: 1. BOSTON -6 (+3.1), 2. SACRAMENTO -3.5 (+0.2)

 

Today’s Top BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:

Ratings Matches: 1. NOP-SAC OVER 236.5 (+3.0)

 

Today’s Top BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:

Ratings Matches: 1. BOS-IND UNDER 242.5 (-0.6)

 

Top Daily Head-To-Head Series Trends

Here are the top head-to-head series trends in play for all of today’s games:

(557) NEW ORLEANS at (558) SACRAMENTO

* Under the total is 4-0 in the last four games of this series.

System Match: PLAY UNDER the total