Today’s College Basketball Betting Trends:
Last Saturday (3/1), I put out a “defacto” VSiN College Basketball Analytics Report after being hounded by subscribers as to why we don’t have them daily. As I have explained numerous times, unfortunately, because of the sheer volume of games and only partial automation involved with putting the reports for other sports together right now, it remains in the “hopefully soon” bin. With that said, I do agree with the importance of having access to the key materials to help readers handicap huge days of games. Along those lines, with VSiN offering a free preview right now, I figured it would be a great time to replicate what I did last Saturday, of course, adding some mid-major conference tournament trends to the mix.
If you do like what you see, realize that this is just a fraction of what we already put together for subscribers daily in NBA and MLB, plus weekly for college and pro football. Now is a better time than ever to get in on VSiN as we are rapidly approaching the madness!
As we get started, from my top CBB head-to-head trends to mark on your calendar piece from early January, I described the importance of head-to-head histories between teams in conference play, as there have been countless series’ in which there have been definitive betting trends that have formed. I gave a top list of remaining games for the season in which some of those trends would apply. Four of those top trends will be in play for Saturday, they were:
(609) KENTUCKY at (610) MISSOURI
* Home teams are 9-3 SU and 12-0 ATS in the KENTUCKY-MISSOURI head-to-head series since 2015
(711) OKLAHOMA at (712) TEXAS
* Underdogs are 12-13 SU but 20-5 ATS in the OKLAHOMA-TEXAS head-to-head series since 2013
Here are some significant other head-to-head trends to watch for Saturday, 3/8:
(601) VANDERBILT at (602) GEORGIA
* Road teams have won the last five ATS between Vandy and Georgia
(605) MISSISSIPPI ST at (606) ARKANSAS
* Home teams are 6-1 ATS in the last seven of MST-FLO head-to-head set
(613) PENN ST at (614) WISCONSIN
* PENN STATE is on a 9-2 ATS run at Wisconsin
(617) GEORGETOWN at (618) DEPAUL
* DEPAUL is 6-1 ATS in its last seven vs. Georgetown
(619) FORDHAM at (620) RHODE ISLAND
* Underdogs are on an extended 14-4 ATS run in FOR-RIU head-to-head series
(621) ST BONAVENTURE at (622) DAVIDSON
* DAVIDSON is on an 11-3 ATS surge vs. St Bonaventure
(625) CANISIUS at (626) ST PETERS
* The last nine games of the CAN-STP head-to-head series went Under the total
(627) NIAGARA at (628) RIDER
* Underdogs are on a 6-0-1 ATS run in the NIA-RID set
(631) S CAROLINA at (632) TENNESSEE
* TENNESSEE is 7-1 ATS in its last eight vs. South Carolina
(633) YALE at (634) BROWN
* YALE has won its last five ATS at Brown
(635) DARTMOUTH at (636) HARVARD
* DARTMOUTH is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 versus Harvard
(641) GEORGIA TECH at (642) WAKE FOREST
* ROAD TEAMS are on a 5-0 ATS streak in the GT-WF rivalry
(643) ALABAMA at (644) AUBURN
* AUBURN is 9-2-1 ATS in the last 12 hosting Alabama
(647) ST JOSEPHS at (648) LASALLE
* Nine of the last 10 games in STJ-LAS head-to-head series went Under the total
(651) NORTHWESTERN at (652) MARYLAND
* Underdogs are 7-1 ATS in the last eight of the NOR-MAR head-to-head series
(653) FLA INTERNATIONAL at (654) MIDDLE TENN ST
* MTSU is on a 6-1-1 ATS surge versus FIU
(655) UTEP at (656) LOUISIANA TECH
* The last eight games of the UTEP-LTU head-to-head series went Under the total
(663) OHIO ST at (664) INDIANA
* INDIANA is 7-1-1 ATS in its last nine hosting Ohio State
(665) PROVIDENCE at (666) XAVIER
* Road teams have won the last five ATS in the PRO-XAV head-to-head series
(669) AIR FORCE at (670) UTAH ST
* UTAH ST is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 vs. Air Force
(677) TEXAS A&M at (678) LSU
* Road teams are 6-1 ATS in the last seven of the A&M-LSU series and the last five have gone Under the total
(685) FRESNO ST at (686) SAN JOSE ST
* FRESNO STATE is on a 12-3-1 ATS run vs. San Jose State
(699) BOSTON COLLEGE at (700) PITTSBURGH
* Favorites are on an 8-2-1 ATS run in the BC-PIT rivalry
(701) DUKE at (702) N CAROLINA
* Over the total is 10-2 in the last 12 of Duke-UNC rivalry
(717) HAWAII at (718) CS-NORTHRIDGE
* Road teams are 6-1 ATS in the last seven of HAW-CSUN series
(731) UTAH at (732) BYU
* Home teams are 6-1 ATS in the last seven non-neutral games of the Utah-BYU series
(747) WOFFORD at (748) E TENN ST
* Underdogs are on a 6-1 TS run in the Wofford-ETSU head-to-head series
(306523) ALABAMA A&M at (306524) SOUTHERN U
* ALABAMA A&M is 7-1 ATS in the last eight vs. Southern but did lose last time
(306525) ALCORN ST at (306526) ARK-PINE BLUFF
* Favorites are 9-2 ATS in the last 11 of the Alcorn St-UAPB head-to-head series
(888888) FARLEIGH DICKINSON at (888888) C CONN ST
* C CONN ST is 9-2-1 ATS in the last 12 vs. FDU
(888888) ST FRANCIS-PA at (888888) LONG ISLAND
* Favorites are on 11-2 ATS run in the STFP-LIU head-to-head series
Next up on my dive into Saturday 3/8 games are rematches, and from my recent piece entitled CBB rematch betting strategies for the power conferences, I mentioned that with the season winding down, it was a great time to look more closely at the rematch stats and trends that have formed in recent years in order to immediately take advantage. I unveiled the best and worst power conference teams in rematches and some interesting systems. At that point, I found the actionable spots for the games that weekend. I’m doing the same here for the Saturda, March 8th games. There are 18 “rematch” games from a meeting already this season, including the huge Auburn-Alabama and Duke-UNC showdowns, both of which boast multiple trends below. The records shown are as they stood from BOY 2021-22 through Wednesday, 2/11.
Best CBB POWER CONFERENCE rematch teams lately
– NORTHWESTERN: 13-9 SU and 16-5 ATS – plays at Maryland 3/8
– TEXAS A&M: 11-6 SU and 10-6 ATS – plays at LSU 3/8
Worst CBB POWER CONFERENCE rematch teams lately
– UTAH: 7-23 SU and 7-22 ATS – plays at BYU 3/8
– ALABAMA: 9-6 SU but 4-11 ATS – plays at Auburn 3/8
– XAVIER: 16-18 SU and 11-22 ATS – hosts Providence 3/8
– LSU: 4-13 SU and 6-11 ATS – hosts Texas A&M 3/8
– NORTH CAROLINA: 13-6 SU but 7-12 ATS – hosts Duke 3/8
– OKLAHOMA: 7-17 SU and 9-15 ATS – plays at Texas 3/8
Best CBB POWER CONFERENCE HOME rematch teams lately
– BYU: 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS – hosts Utah 3/8
Worst CBB POWER CONFERENCE HOME rematch teams lately
– NORTH CAROLINA: 7-3 SU but 2-8 ATS – hosts Duke 3/8
– LSU: 2-6 SU and ATS – hosts Texas AandM 3/8
Best CBB POWER CONFERENCE ROAD rematch teams lately
– TEXAS A&M: 6-3 SU and 7-1 ATS – plays LSU 3/8
– NORTHWESTERN: 5-6 SU and 9-2 ATS – plays at Maryland 3/8
– GEORGETOWN: 2-14 SU but 11-4 ATS – plays at DePaul 3/8
Worst CBB POWER CONFERENCE ROAD rematch teams lately
– UTAH: 3-12 SU and ATS – plays at BYU 3/8
– ALABAMA: 2-5 SU and ATS – plays at Auburn 3/8
– OHIO ST: 1-8 SU and 3-6 ATS – plays at Indiana 3/8
Best CBB POWER CONFERENCE REVENGE teams lately
– BYU: 2-0 SU and ATS – hosts Utah 3/8
– OHIO ST: 7-4 SU and 9-2 ATS – plays at Indiana 3/8
Worst CBB POWER CONFERENCE REVENGE teams lately
– ALABAMA: 2-3 SU and 0-5 ATS – plays at Auburn 3/8
– BUTLER: 4-16 SU and 6-13 ATS – plays at Creighton 3/8
Best CBB POWER CONFERENCE teams in rematches after winning last game lately
– NORTHWESTERN: 5-5 SU and 7-3 ATS – plays at Maryland 3/8
– CREIGHTON: 16-6 SU and 13-7 ATS – hosts Butler 3/8
Worst CBB POWER CONFERENCE teams in rematches after winning last game lately
– UTAH: 5-10 SU and 4-11 ATS – plays at BYU 3/8
High-scoring rematch teams
– ALABAMA: 11-4 OVER the total – plays at Auburn 3/8
– AUBURN: 11-4 OVER the total – hosts Alabama 3/8
– INDIANA: 15-6 OVER the total – hosts Ohio State 3/8
Low-scoring rematch teams
– NORTHWESTERN: 15-6 UNDER the total – plays at Maryland 3/8
– IOWA STATE: 17-9 UNDER the total – plays at Kansas State 3/8
– BUTLER: 21-12 UNDER the total – plays at Creighton 3/8
All of the trends above have been team-specific betting angles. The remaining five are POWER CONFERENCE WIDE SYSTEMS that you’ll need to fit teams into.
1) CBB POWER CONFERENCE TEAMS THAT LOST at home in the opening game between teams and are now on the road and maintain a winning record are on a 110-70 ATS (61.1%) run.
This is an ideal spot for backing a team in revenge mode, and they are still seemingly a quality team as judged by their record and have the motivation of paying a team back from a home loss. Plus, on the road, they are granted a few extra points to play with by oddsmakers.
There are five plays on this system for Saturday: OKLAHOMA (at Texas), GEORGETOWN (at DePaul), OHIO STATE (at Indiana), IOWA STATE (as Kansas State), and ALABAMA (at Auburn)
2) CBB POWER CONFERENCE TEAMS THAT LOST the opening game between teams and are now favorites of 7 points or greater are on a 73-9 SU and 50-31 ATS (61.7%) run.
This is another spot where we have a highly motivated revenge seeker. Surely these teams believe the recent loss to that opponent was a fluke, and the coaching staffs probably bombard them with the reminder all week up until game time.
Maryland (vs. Northwestern), BYU (vs. Utah), and UConn (vs. Seton Hall) all qualify on Saturday, 3/8
3) CBB POWER CONFERENCE TEAMS THAT LOST the opening game between teams and are now double-digit road underdogs have gone just 14-124 SU but are on an 83-54 ATS (60.6%) run.
Consider this a spot where the better team may be taking a late-season matchup against a lesser conference rival too lightly. These games are typically overpriced, and we all know that most conference matchups aren’t easy, regardless of the circumstances with each team.
BUTLER (at Creighton), VIRGINIA TECH (at Clemson), and PROVIDENCE (at Xavier) all qualify on Saturday 3/8
4) ON TOTALS, any CBB POWER CONFERENCE REMATCH game that includes a team winning less than 42% of its games has gone OVER the total at a 131-89 (59.5%) rate over the last 3-1/2 seasons.
This angle could be reasoned with the losing teams not being great defensively and the opponent, having seen them already, fattening up on a second chance to put together some big offensive numbers.
The COLORADO-TCU and SETON HALL-UConn games qualify on Saturday 3/8
Moving on late season handicapping, a recent piece I published was titled Handicapping final two weeks in college basketball’s power conferences, and it’s been off to a fantastic start since release. In it, I shared how I’ve always believed that the last couple of weeks before any sport’s postseason are crucial. The article revealed which programs have been the best and worst finishers in recent years, as well as some specific strategies for dealing with these final regular season games in the power leagues.
Here sre some of the findings of that piece and how they affect Saturday’s games:
Top Teams
CONNECTICUT: 14-1 SU and 11-3 ATS – hosts Seton Hall 3/8
NORTH CAROLINA: 21-5 SU and 14-11 ATS – hosts Duke 3/8
VIRGINIA: 19-6 SU and 13-12 ATS – plays at Syracuse 3/8
TENNESSEE: 20-7 SU and 15-11 ATS – hosts South Carolina 3/8
KENTUCKY: 20-7 SU and 14-13 ATS – plays at Missouri 3/8
GEORGIA TECH: 18-9 SU and 24-3 ATS – plays at Wake Forest 3/8
TEXAS A&M: 16-10 SU and 17-8 ATS – plays at LSU 3/8
CREIGHTON: 16-9 SU and 15-9 ATS – hosts Butler 3/8
OKLAHOMA ST: 15-14 SU and 18-11 ATS – hosts Cincinnati 3/8
ARKANSAS: 16-12 SU and 17-11 ATS – hosts Mississippi St 3/8
SOUTH CAROLINA: 13-15 SU and 17-11 ATS – plays at Tennessee 3/8
Bottom Teams
GEORGETOWN: 5-22 SU and 11-16 ATS – plays at Depaul 3/8
GEORGIA: 5-22 SU and 11-16 ATS – hosts Vanderbilt 3/8
LOUISVILLE: 5-20 SU and 10-15 ATS – hosts Stanford 3/8
DEPAUL: 7-20 SU and 11-16 ATS – hosts Georgetown 3/8
CALIFORNIA: 6-17 SU and 10-13 ATS – plays at Notre Dame 3/8
IOWA STATE: 8-21 SU and 9-18 ATS – plays at Kansas St 3/8
PITTSBURGH: 7-17 SU and 11-12 ATS – hosts Boston College 3/8
ALABAMA: 12-16 SU and 7-21 ATS – plays at Auburn 3/8
WAKE FOREST: 8-18 SU and 9-17 ATS – hosts Georgia Tech 3/8
MISSISSIPPI ST: 12-16 SU and 9-17 ATS – plays at Arkansas 3/8
XAVIER: 14-12 SU BUT 9-17 ATS – hosts Providence 3/8
SYRACUSE: 10-18 SU and 10-17 ATS – hosts Virginia 3/8
KANSAS: 18-9 SU BUT 10-16 ATS – hosts Arizona 3/8
Best Home Teams
CONNECTICUT: 7-0 SU and 5-1 ATS – hosts Seton Hall 3/8
KANSAS: 13-1 SU and 7-7 ATS – hosts Arizona 3/8
LSU: 12-1 SU and 9-4 ATS – hosts Texas A&M 3/8
FLORIDA ST: 11-1 SU and 7-3 ATS – hosts SMU 3/8
Worst Home Teams
GEORGIA: 4-11 SU and 6-9 ATS – hosts Vanderbilt 3/8
LOUISVILLE: 3-7 SU and 4-6 ATS – hosts Stanford 3/8
Best Road Teams
VIRGINIA: 8-3 SU and 6-5 ATS – plays at Syracuse 3/8
KENTUCKY: 9-4 SU and ATS – plays at Missouri 3/8
TEXAS AandM: 8-5 SU and 9-3 ATS – plays at LSU 3/8
Worst Road Teams
UTAH: 0-6 SU and 1-5 ATS – plays at BYU 3/8
CALIFORNIA: 1-11 SU and 4-8 ATS – plays at Notre Dame 3/8
GEORGETOWN: 2-10 SU and 4-8 ATS – plays at Notre Dame 3/8
STANFORD: 2-10 SU and 6-6 ATS – plays at Louisville 3/8
On Totals – OVER and UNDER Teams
WEST VIRGINIA: 21-7 OVER the total – hosts UCF 3/8
ARKANSAS: 20-8 OVER the total – hosts Mississippi St 3/8
SOUTH CAROLINA: 18-9 OVER the total – plays at Tennessee 3/8
UCLA: 17-9 OVER the total – hosts USC 3/8
GEORGIA TECH: 17-9 OVER the total – plays at Wake Forest 3/8
VIRGINIA TECH: 17-8 UNDER the total – plays at Clemson 3/8
CLEMSON: 18-10 UNDER the total – hosts Virginia Tech 3/8
BUTLER: 14-8 UNDER the total – plays at Creighton 3/8
TENNESSEE: 16-10 UNDER the total – hosts South Carolina 3/8
Late Season Home Court Advantage and Totals results by Conference
ACC: 130-66 SU and 110-81 ATS (57.6%), Overs 99-94 (51.3%)
Big 12: 99-52 SU and 78-68 ATS (53.4%), Overs 82-67 (55%)
Big East: 83-50 SU and 76-55 ATS (58%), Overs 69-62 (52.7%)
Big Ten: 124-70 SU and 104-86 ATS (54.7%), Overs 106-86 (55.2%)
SEC: 117-76 SU and 90-100 ATS (47.4%), Overs 108-84 (56.3%)
Trends by Line Range
There have been some trends that have developed in the various conferences specific to line range. Take a look.
* There has been a definitive line point in ACC home favorite betting, and that has been 10 points. ACC home teams in the -1 to -10 range are on a 73-19 SU and 59-30-3 ATS (66.3%) run, a sign that home-court advantage can be the deciding factor in expectedly tighter games. At the same time, ACC hosts favored by more than 10 points have gone 27-5 SU but 13-18-1 ATS (41.9%), while those playing as home underdogs are just 8-13 ATS (38.1%) in their last 21 tries.
Small ACC home favorites for Saturday, â…ś, would include WAKE FOREST (vs. Georgia Tech), NOTRE DAME (vs. California), and SYRACUSE (vs. Virginia)
* There are some very interesting trends in Big East games with lofty totals of 150 or higher posted since ’18. In these games in the last two weeks of the regular season, hosts are 34-14 SU and 33-15 ATS (68.8%), while totals are 30-18 Over (62.5%).
The two Big East games for Saturday, 3/8 that are expected to qualify for this lofty total criteria are Providence at XAVIER and Butler at CREIGHTON
* Home teams in the -2.5 to +2.5 line range have proven far from trustworthy in the Big 12 last two weeks’ games of recent years. In fact, they are just 10-18 SU and ATS (35.7%) in their last 28 tries. The best line range to play Big 12 home favorites has been in the -3 to -10.5 range, as they are 45-14 SU and 31-24-4 ATS (56.4%).
The two Big 12 games for Saturday, 3/8 that are expected to have very small home favorites are TCU at COLORADO and Arizona at KANSAS
* Larger Big 12 home underdogs in late-season games have thrived, going 14-16 SU but 21-8-1 ATS (72.4%) in their last 30 as dogs of 3 points or more.
Expect KANSAS STATE (vs. Iowa State), OKLAHOMA STATE (vs. Cincinnati), ARIZONA STATE (vs. Texas Tech), and BAYLOR vs. Houston) to play as sizeable home underdogs on Saturday, 3/8
* Contrary to popular belief, laying a lot of points with hosts in the Big Ten has been a rewarding strategy, as those favored by double-digits are on a 27-4 SU and 19-12 ATS (61.3%) run since 2018.
WISCONSIN (vs. Penn State) and MARYLAND (vs. Northwestern) are both expected to be double-digit favorites on Saturday, 3/8
* SEC home teams have really dragged the numbers down overall for the Power Five collective in recent years, going just 32-52 ATS (38.1%) over the last three seasons. Of note, Over the total is 57-26 (68.7%) in the SEC in that time frame.
This would affect ALL SEC home teams and all totals for Saturday, 3/8
* Small SEC home dogs have really struggled in the final two weeks of the regular season, as those at +4.5 points or less are just 6-23 SU and 7-22 ATS (24.1%) since 2018.
There aren’t expected to be any small SEC home underdogs on Saturday, 3/8
* Lofty totaled SEC games in the final two weeks of the regular season since 2018 have been explosive, as games with totals of 150 or higher have gone 32-16 Over (66.7%), producing 162.1 PPG on totals averaging 157.4.
Five of Saturday’s SEC games are expected to have totals in excess of 150: They are Vanderbilt-Georgia, Kentucky-Missouri, Alabama-Auburn, Ole Miss-Florida, and Oklahoma-Texas
Now finally, getting around to the article published this week on “Mid-major Conference Tournament Trends” that will be playing on Saturday, 3/8, here are the trends that could or will apply:
Note that all records were as of the start of each respective conference’s 2025 tournament.
Big Sky
Key Trend(s)
· Single-digit favorites in the Big Sky tourney are on an amazing 52-16 SU and 42-25-1 ATS (62.7%) run since 2015, including 8-1 SU and 7-2 ATS (77.8%) in the title contest. However, this group was just 2-6 ATS, so perhaps we could be witnessing a shift.
The Big Sky first-round games are played on Saturday, and as of Friday’s predetermined matchups, WEBER STATE (vs. Sacramento State) and NORTHERN ARIZONA (vs. Eastern Washington) are both expected to be single-digit favorites
· Lower totals of 140 or less in the Big Sky tourney have gone OVER at a 20-7 (74.1%) rate since 2016.
The Sacramento State-Weber State total should come in around 130 for Saturday, 3/8
Big South
Key Trend(s)
· Favorites over 7 points or more have been very successful in the Big South tourney since 2014, going 30-5 SU and 20-15 ATS (57.1%)
The Big South Conference semifinals will be played on Saturday evening
Coastal Athletic
Key Trend(s)
· Small favorites of -4.5 points or fewer are on a strong run in the CAA tourney, boasting a 31-13 SU and 28-13-3 ATS (68.3%) since 2016.
· Teams off a bye taking on teams that already played in the CAA tourney are on a 23-4 SU and 16-11 ATS (59.3%) run over the last 11 years.
The Coastal Athletic second round will be played on Saturday, with Campbell and Monmouth taking on winners from Friday, plus ELON and HAMPTON expected to play as small favorites
Missouri Valley
Key Trend(s)
· Only two of the 42 underdogs of 6.5 points or more in the MVC tourney since 2014 have won outright and have gone 13-29 ATS (31%) in those games.
· The MVC tourney is typically a low-scoring bracket, and over the last 10 seasons, on totals of 131.5 or higher, Under is on a 39-21 (65%) run.
The Missouri Valley Conference semifinal games will be played Saturday afternoon in St. Louis
Ohio Vallrey
Key Trend(s)
· Totals in the 150s in the Ohio Valley tournament have gone 10-2 Under (83.3%) in the last 12 chances.
· Ohio Valley Conference title game underdogs are on a 12-2 ATS (85.7%) run, but Little Rock (+4.5) did lose to Morehead State last year, 69-55.
The Ohio Valley Conference title game will be played on Saturday evening
Summit League
Key Trend(s)
· All eight games of the 2024 Summit League tournament went Under the total (100%)
· Historically, the most extreme of totals in the Summit League tournament of late have trended Under as well, with totals >=153.5 at 13-4 Under (76.5%) since 2016, and totals <=130 at 9-2 Under (81.8%) since 2014.
· Favorites in the Summit League have had a strong run over the last five years, going 31-7 SU and 21-15 ATS (58.3%) overall.
The Summit League semifinals will be played on Saturday in South Dakota
Sun Belt
Key Trend(s)
· With one of the most unusual brackets of any league around, getting a bye in the Sun Belt tournament hasn’t been very advantageous recently, as teams that did are 16-8 SU but 9-15 ATS (37.5%) against teams that didn’t over the last five years.
· Small favorites in the Sun Belt have been money of late, as those laying 4.5 points or less are 33-14 SU and 30-16-1 ATS (65.2%) dating back to 2016.
· Totals above 146 have trended Under of late in the Sun Belt tournament, 18-7 Under the total (72%) since 2017.
The Sun Belt quarterfinals will be played on Saturday with #3 Troy and #4 Arkansas State awaiting Friday’s winners
West Coast
Key Trend(s)
· West Coast teams that had a bye in earlier round(s) are on a tremendous 26-5 SU and 19-11-1 ATS (63.3%) run.
· WCC favorites in the semifinal and championship rounds are on a 21-12 ATS (63.6%) run.
· The sweet spot for betting favorites in the WCC tourney is in the -6 to -12 line range, 24-3 SU and 21-5-1 ATS (80.8%) in last 27.
· West Coast Conference tourney totals of 147 or higher have been explosive lately, going Over the total at a 20-11-1 (64.5%) rate, while producing about 155.8 PPG on average.
The West Coast Conference third-round games will be played on Saturday with former Pac-12 members #5 Oregon State and #6 Washington State awaiting Friday winners
There is certainly a lot more I could include on a repeatable CBB Analytics Report daily, but this gives you an idea of some of the things I will be using for my own handicapping. Of course, I am also going to be utilizing my DAILY MATCHUP RATINGS as well, and those will undergo a final update at around 11 AM ET and will reflect the latest injury news and line moves.
Good luck with this final massive Saturday of college basketball games. The clock has turned to March. Can you feel it?!