Gonzaga vs. Kennesaw State Prediction
In the No. 3 vs. No. 14 matchup in the NCAA Tournament West Region, Gonzaga vs. Kennesaw State is the first-round game at 10:00 p.m. ET on Thursday, March 19 with a trip to second round on the line.
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How to Watch Gonzaga vs. Kennesaw State
When: 10:00 p.m. ET on Thursday, March 19th
Where: Moda Center in Portland, OR
Watch: TBS
Odds for Gonzaga vs. Kennesaw State
(odds current at time of publish)
Spread: Gonzaga -19.5 (-102), Kennesaw State +19.5 (-118)
Total: Over 157.5 (-105), Under 157.5 (-115)
Gonzaga vs. Kennesaw State Prediction & Preview
There’s a fascinating subplot to this No. 3 vs. No. 14 matchup that goes beyond the seedings. Kennesaw State’s program was built from the ground up by Amir Abdur-Rahim, who tragically passed away before the 2024-25 season due to complications from a surgical procedure. Both KSU and the South Florida program he left to build are in this year’s NCAA Tournament, and he isn’t here to see either of them dancing. It’s the kind of bittersweet storyline that makes March what it is, and it deserves to be acknowledged before we get into the basketball.
On the court, though, this one is pretty straightforward. Gonzaga is a 30-3 team making its 27th consecutive NCAA Tournament appearance and, in many ways, this feels like a bounce-back outfit with a chip on its shoulder. Last year’s second-round exit — the first time in over a decade the Bulldogs fell short of the Sweet 16 — stings more when you consider the Committee put a top-10 caliber team on the 8 line and served them up to Houston. That’s ancient history now, and Mark Few has another legitimate contender, one that was top-25 in eFG% on both ends, top-20 in turnover rate offense and defense, and top-20 in 2P% in both directions. The schedule skeptics will poke holes at the WCC slate, but the non-conference featured Alabama, Kentucky, Michigan, UCLA, and Arizona State, and Santa Clara and Saint Mary’s — both of whom also made the field — pushed Gonzaga all year.
The added optimism around this team is the return of Braden Huff, who averaged 17.8 points per game before going down on January 15th and only appearing in 18 games. Jalen Warley, the kind of glue guy who quietly fills a stat sheet in four or five different ways, was also banged up late but returned for the conference tourney. If Graham Ike and Tyon Grant-Foster get consistent contributions from those two, this is a team that’s capable of going on a run. Gonzaga is also playing in Portland, essentially a road trip down the street compared to what Kennesaw State faces traveling from Georgia — a geography advantage that shouldn’t be overlooked.
Kennesaw State got here the hard way. Antoine Pettway lost his star player, Simeon Cottle — a 20-plus point-per-game scorer who was shooting 45% on 2s and nearly 35% from deep — when Cottle was dismissed in mid-January amid the NCAA basketball gambling scandal. What followed was a team that limped to a 10-10 conference record, dropped four games to Quadrant 4 opponents, and finished 11th out of 12 teams in CUSA in 3P%, 2P%, and eFG%. They were 5-10 in road and neutral settings before the conference tournament and 2-8 in conference road games. Those are the kinds of numbers that don’t exactly inspire confidence against a No. 3 seed. Without Cottle, the Owls were forced into a by-committee scoring approach that never really clicked — 34.4% from 3 and 48.3% on 2s in conference play, ranking eighth and ninth, respectively.
There were genuine strengths. Kennesaw State was one of CUSA’s better rebounding teams and ranked second in the conference in 2P% defense, which is nothing to dismiss. And credit where it’s due — winning three games in three days in Huntsville to claim the Conference USA title is hard regardless of who you’re playing. But three games in three days in a mid-major conference tournament is a far cry from what awaits in Portland, and this Kennesaw State squad doesn’t have the offensive firepower or neutral-site résumé to make Gonzaga sweat for very long. Pettway and his guys deserve their moment, but Few and the Bulldogs are built for exactly this kind of reset year — and a 14-seed that lost its best player in January isn’t the opponent that derails it.
Estimated Score: TBD
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