Howard vs. UMBC Prediction
In the No. 16 vs. No. 16 matchup in the NCAA Tournament Midwest Region, Howard vs. UMBC is the First Four game at 6:40 p.m. ET on Tuesday, March 17 with a trip to first round on the line.
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How to Watch Howard vs. UMBC
When: 6:40 p.m. ET on Tuesday, March 17th
Where: UD Arena in Dayton, OH
Watch: truTV
Odds for Howard vs. UMBC
(odds current at time of publish)
Spread: UMBC -2.5 (-110), Howard +2.5 (-110)
Total: Over 141.5 (-110), Under 141.5 (-110)
Howard vs. UMBC Prediction & Preview
Nobody in the field this year carries a storyline quite like UMBC does. Eight years removed from the most iconic upset in NCAA Tournament history, Jim Ferry’s Retrievers are back in Dayton on Tuesday night, riding a program-record 12-game winning streak into a First Four matchup against a Howard program that’s become one of the MEAC’s most consistent contenders. The winner gets Michigan in Buffalo on Thursday. Safe to say it’ll be a short trip for the loser.
Kenny Blakeney has done something genuinely impressive at Howard. He took over a program in 2020 that had last danced in 1992 and started 4-29 in Year 1, and now the Bison are in the NCAA Tournament for the third time in four years. This year’s group is the best he’s sent to the dance. Howard enters at 23-10, ranked 206th by Bart Torvik and 208th by KenPom — the program’s highest marks since 2013 — off the back of winning the MEAC Tournament and an eight-game winning streak. More importantly, this team plays actual defense. Two years ago Howard ranked 338th in adjusted defensive efficiency per Torvik. This year they’re 123rd, a top-30 team in eFG% allowed and 3P% allowed, and forcing turnovers on more than 21% of possessions. Even in non-conference play, the pressure defense was generating turnovers at better than a 20% clip. The shooting and turnover numbers soften considerably when you strip out MEAC competition, and the offensive numbers take a real hit outside the conference as well, but this is still a meaningfully better team than the one that lost to Wagner in the First Four in 2024 or got blown out by Kansas by 28 in 2023.
UMBC came into Selection Sunday as a 24-8 team on a 12-game tear, wrapping up the America East Tournament with a dominant 74-59 win over Vermont — winning a second half 53-33 after the game was tied at 21 at the break. They’re undersized up front, with no one logging meaningful minutes over 6-foot-7, but they shoot it well from everywhere that matters, ranking top-75 in eFG% on both ends of the floor, and they were 32-of-74 from 3 in the AEC Tournament alone. Jah’Likai King leads the team at 13.9 points per game, DJ Armstrong Jr. averages 13.2, and Ace Valentine chips in 12 — a legitimate three-headed scoring threat built in large part around JUCO transfers who’ve bought into Jim Ferry’s system. Yes, all 22 of their Division I wins came against Quadrant 4 opponents and they went 0-5 against anything better than that. But the only Quadrant 1 win the legendary 2018 team had was on the road at Vermont in the AEC Tournament, and six days later they beat Virginia by 20.
The UMBC-Virginia comparison is irresistible but ultimately imperfect, as none of this year’s No. 1 seeds profiles like that 2018 Virginia team, which was famously plodding and half-court dependent in ways that played right into UMBC’s hands. Michigan at 31-3 is a different animal. But that’s a conversation for Thursday. Tuesday’s question is whether UMBC’s perimeter shooting and disciplined half-court offense can handle Howard’s length and turnover-forcing pressure defense in a building in Dayton that figures to be split down the middle rather than leaning heavily in either direction. Howard is the more rounded team. UMBC is the better shooting team. If the Retrievers are dropping 3s in rhythm early, this gets very interesting very fast. If Howard’s pressure gets into their heads and the turnovers start piling up, the Bison advance and get their best crack at a No. 1 seed in Blakeney’s tenure.
Estimated Score: TBD
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