Iowa State vs. Kansas
With four days until the next NFL game and only one college football game left on the schedule, bettors are going to be looking for action. This is the time of the year when college basketball gets a lot bigger and more money floods into that betting market. It was a good thing that Monday night had playoff football because there were 17 games, all of them from one-bid leagues. That is not the case on Tuesday, as we have plenty of ranked teams in action, including this Iowa State vs. Kansas game.
Normally we’d expect the Jayhawks to be one of those ranked teams at this time of the season, but they are not. Of course, an upset win here at Phog Allen Fieldhouse over the second-ranked Cyclones would probably be enough to vault Bill Self’s team back into the Top 25. But, that is a tall order against an Iowa State team that heads to Lawrence with a perfect 16-0 record.
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Iowa State Cyclones (-3.5, 146.5) vs. Kansas Jayhawks
9 p.m. ET (ESPN)
ESPN will carry this one, with the Cyclones narrowly favored by two possessions based on the overnight line. The Jayhawks are off to a slow start in conference play, having lost on the road to UCF and West Virginia. Even in the win over TCU, the Jayhawks allowed 1.160 points per possession. They’ve allowed 1.163, 1.160, and 1.290 PPP in those games, so even though they’ve done well on offense, they haven’t been able to outscore their defensive shortcomings.
They’ll really need to button up defensively here, as Iowa State is shooting nearly 41% from 3 for the season and is a top-10 offense by Effective Field Goal Percentage (eFG%). That being said, in the Cyclones’ first conference road game against Baylor, they had a season-low 1.012 PPP. The difference is that Iowa State has allowed over a point per possession just three times (Mississippi State, St. John’s, and Iowa) in their 16 games, so even if they are held in check a bit on the offensive end, the defense has the chance to carry them.
With a heavyweight battle such as this featuring two top-25 teams per KenPom, there are always going to be players to watch. A lot of eyes will be on Darryn Peterson, the potential No. 1 pick in the upcoming draft who has averaged 22.6 PPG and 4.7 RPG. Peterson has only played seven of Kansas’ 16 games, but three of them have been the conference games, where he has scored 26, 32, and 23 points.
Peterson has had two different absences, missing seven games between November 11 and December 2 and then he missed two more games in advance of Christmas against Towson and Davidson. The Jayhawks are 4-3 in the games he has played.
Tre White and Fiory Bidunga may have NBA futures as well. White has played all 16 games and has averaged 15.2 PPG with 7.0 RPG and Bidunga has chipped in nearly 14 and 9. Peterson is likely going to get his, so it’s on the supporting cast to do their part. For the season, the Jayhawks actually have really good defensive metrics, holding opponents to just 27.9% from 3 and 46.4% on 2s, but Kansas is just 5-5 against Quadrant 2 or better opponents, as the defensive numbers and the offensive numbers drop off.
Joshua Jefferson leads four Cyclones in double figures, but that’s by the thinnest of margins over Milan Momcilovic. Jefferson has averaged 17.7 PPG, 7.8 RPG, and 5.2 APG as one of the nation’s most important players. Momcilovic is averaging 17.6 PPG and is an obscene 61-for-111 (55%) on 3-point shots. He shot 39.6% on 3s last season with 63 made triples in 28 games, so he’s basically going to exceed last year’s output by mid-January this season. Of course, he’s also highly, highly unlikely to keep up this pace.
Veteran PG Tamin Lipsey missed a trio of games around Thanksgiving, but he’s averaged 15.7 PPG and has an 11/3 AST/TO ratio in the three Big 12 games that the Cyclones have played thus far. He has one of the best ratios in the nation on the whole and is the straw that stirs the drink for T.J. Otzelberger.
Both of these teams have pretty similar shot selection against the better competition that they’ve played. One huge difference is that Kansas has a 12.1% TO% in 10 games against Q2 or better opponents and Iowa State has a 23.5% TO%. Kansas has been really good at taking care of the ball, so we’ll see if they do that at home in this one.
Iowa State vs. Kansas Prediction
This is rare air for Kansas. They’ve only been a home underdog four times over the last decade. They’ve pulled off the upset in three of those four games per the KillerSports database. There is a bit of a difference out there among the more popular sources, as Bart Torvik has Iowa State 74-73, while Haslametrics has 78-70 Iowa State. However, if you limit the stats and metrics to games against Q2 or better opponents, Torvik’s ratings project 77-71. A senior point guard who won’t get rattled is a huge deal in hostile environments and Lipsey just might be the difference maker.
Pick: Iowa State -3.5
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