Fortunately, the boys from Baton Rouge took the trek to the Pacific Northwest prior to Friday afternoon’s FAA ground stop, so the LSU vs. Gonzaga game scheduled for 3:30 p.m. ET on Saturday is officially on. As mentioned yesterday in the Arizona vs. Auburn preview, Fridays typically aren’t big days for college basketball, but with college football still going on, we had more marquee games last night than we do today. While this is a slow Saturday by CBB standards, there are still some interesting games, including old Pac-12 rivals Washington vs. Utah and a mid-major clash between New Mexico and Santa Clara.
But, this LSU vs. Gonzaga game seems to be the most intriguing one thinking ahead to March, as this is the type of win that could change a seed line for either one of these teams, especially LSU to get a road win in The Kennel.
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LSU vs Gonzaga (-6.5, 161.5) Prediction
Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET (USA Network)
Right up until the start of the season, there were questions about how many players Will Wade would actually have on the LSU roster. Well, through three games, 12 players have gotten onto the scoresheet. It has been a slow start for UCLA additions Skyy Clark and Donovan Dent, as Clark is just 1-of-16 from 3 and Dent is just 13-of-33 from the field as a whole. Fortunately, Kansas State transfer Abdi Bashir Jr. is shooting 37.9% from 3 and Kentucky transfer Mo Dioubate is 15-of-23 from the floor overall.
The Tigers have tamed three cupcakes thus far, beating New Orleans by 43, Texas Southern by 41, and Louisiana Tech by 40. I don’t think that the pattern of winning by 40+ continues here against Gonzaga, but LSU was suffocating on defense against those inferior foes, allowing .701, .676, and .681 points per possession.
While the Tigers got everything they wanted inside the arc and on the offensive glass, it’ll take a better shooting performance from deep than we’ve seen so far to go into Spokane and pull off this upset. Against those lesser squads, LSU shot 27% from deep. That’s not going to cut it, especially because it seems highly unlikely that over 54% of their shot attempts in this game come at the rim like they have thus far.
Bart Torvik ranks Gonzaga 15th in Effective Height, so for interior players, and 21st in Average Height overall. In other words, the Tigers are going to need to shoot over the top of that Bulldogs defense and make a fair number of 3s to make a run at a signature victory. Unlike LSU, Gonzaga has been tested, knocking off Purdue in a neutral site in the season opener by a 78-72 count. New Mexico State is a decent mid-major and the Bulldogs waxed the floor with the Aggies in a 109-68 decision.
Getting Braden Huff back healthy is a huge deal for this team. The 6-foot-10 big man is a career 65.6% shooter on 2s and shot 69.7% last season over just 18 games. He takes excellent care of the basketball and is a menace on the offensive glass. He’ll be a big piece of the puzzle this season and in this game against a physical Tigers team. Davis Fogle is the only other player we wouldn’t consider an unknown for this Zags crew, as he scored double figures in 12 games last season as a freshman.
The ceiling for Gonzaga depends on highly-touted transfers. Isiah Harwell was awful for Houston as a freshman last season and badly needed a change of scenery. He only shot 29.5% on 2s and 27.1% on 3s. The four-star recruit and 16th player in the nation for 247Sports was coming off of a torn ACL and never found his footing. The Pocatello, ID native is now much closer to home and he should settle in nicely. Obviously 7-foot-1 Massamba Diop is a big wild card, literally and figuratively, after coming over from Arizona State as a premier defender and a good post scorer. But, I think guards Xaivian Lee and Javon Bennett are the transfers that need to stand out.
Lee was a walking bucket at Princeton before transferring to Florida, where he shot nearly 60% on 2s, but shot just 29.2% from 3 on 195 attempts. If he can rectify his shooting woes and give Gonzaga another triggerman on the perimeter, this offense looks very different. Similarly, Javon Bennett saw a drop in his numbers in his final season at Dayton, as his Usage Rate increased and teams paid more attention to him. He went from 39% from 3 to 34.7% and also saw his efficiency around the rim decline. But, he was also an 89.8% free throw shooter, something Few badly needed on last season’s squad.
LSU vs. Gonzaga Prediction
Both of these teams are extremely talented, but I don’t think LSU has enough answers for Gonzaga. The Tigers are unlikely to have as much success getting to the rim as they have to this point and no shooters have really emerged. Meanwhile, Gonzaga has an offense built to score at all three levels. Few has the better half-court offense and his team should be able to hold up on the defensive glass to limit second-chance opportunities.
Pick: Gonzaga -6.5
