Tuley’s Takes – Week 11 College Football Best Bets, Picks and Predictions:
We continued to trade money with our college football Best Bets last week in the Tuley’s Takes home office. Our early Saturday plays on Minnesota +5 vs. UCLA and BYU +4.5 at Utah looked pretty good, but we lost both covers as UCLA pulled away to beat Minnesota 34-20 and Utah beat BYU 28-20. Fortunately, in the night games, Air Force +3 pulled the outright upset, 24-21, at Army, and Miami (FL) +7.5 somehow covered in its 31-24 loss at Notre Dame, as we benefitted from that line that kept climbing through the week to get us the touchdown and the hook. I wish I had made my lean on Alabama +6 at LSU an official Best Bet as the Tide rolled to a 31-13 victory, so I hope readers bet it anyway.
My official best bets here stayed right around .500 on the season at 21-20 ATS (51.2%) and -2 units, so hopefully we can get back to profitability down the stretch.
Northwestern (+14) at #20 Ohio State
We kick off with an early Big Ten game (noon CT/9 a.m. PT) with Ohio State hosting Northwestern. The Buckeyes are coming off a 41-28 home loss vs. Oregon, and I know there are some trends being discussed out there about teams bouncing back from blowout losses. My VSiN colleague Steve Makinen wrote that “Ranked teams coming off of double-digit losses have responded of late, going 70-32 SU and 59-42-1 ATS (58.4%) in the next game since November 2021.” Now, believe me, I’ve done quite well betting teams off blowout losses in all sports over the years – it’s an old-time betting angle that I first heard about in the NBA, but it works well overall – however, I prefer betting it when a team has been blown out and is getting inflated points as a dog, so I’m willing to fade the Buckeyes here as obviously a lot of people are aware of the trend as the line has steamed from -10.5 to two full TDs. Besides, this OSU team isn’t head and shoulders above the rest of the Big Ten like recent seasons, plus Northwestern stayed within 8 points of that Oregon team (also on the road) that just routed Ohio State and also lost by only 6 at Indiana.
College Football Best Bet: Northwestern +14
Louisville at North Carolina (+3.5)
Louisville is trying to earn a spot in the ACC Championship Game at 5-2 in the conference while North Carolina is an also-ran at 2-3, so I get why the Cardinals are road favorites here. However, Bill Belichick has the Tar Heels playing well lately and I have them as the slightly better team, so I’ll gladly take the 3.5-point head start in case they play tough and lose another close game. They’ve already beaten #25 Pittsburgh and lost 31-30 to Syracuse in overtime before losing just 38-35 to then-No. 1 Miami. They used that momentum to beat UConn 38-21 last week and should use the experience of all those recent games to be able to stay close to a high-scoring Louisville offense, which has mostly beaten up inferior opponents. I’m not saying the North Carolina defense will shut them down, but it should do enough to keep this game to one score, and hopefully that’s a FG. The money line of +150 is also appealing.
College Football Best Bet: North Carolina +3.5
#2 Utah at #23 Arizona (+2.5)
Let’s go with another home underdog here in this battle of ranked teams. Yes, I know I lost last Saturday fading Utah at home with BYU, but hopefully we can turn the tables with Utah hitting the road. Utah (9-0) is obviously undefeated on the road, but the Utes did fail to cover in a 27-24 at Colorado last month, so they’ve been much more dominant at home. And Arizona has impressed me this season, and I’ve become a fan of dual-threat QB Noah Fifita, who passed for 313 yards and two TDs in last week’s come-from-behind win vs. TCU and added 38 rushing yards and another TD. The only thing I don’t like about this play is it’s become a pretty popular dog among other handicappers, while I prefer to be contrarian. However, Utah -2.5 is -120 at some books, so hopefully the public will bet it up to 3 by kickoff.
College Football Best Bet: Arizona +2.5 or better
#6 Texas (+4) at #21 LSU
Back in July, I gave out Texas +295 to win the SEC and +650 to win the CFB Playoff. Those bets looked great after Texas upset then-No. 1 Ohio State 24-23 on Sept. 12 and the Longhorns took over the No. 1 ranking, but then losses to Oklahoma and Florida knocked them all the way down to No. 19 and a longshot to make the SEC title game. However, while I don’t agree the CFB Playoff Committee should have ranked them so high, they’re certainly in the running for the national title. Meanwhile, Lane Kiffin’s first season at LSU hasn’t been what he hoped for, at 6-3, 3-3 in the SEC. I don’t get why LSU is favored by more than a field goal here except for the so-called home-field advantage (even though the Tigers just lost at home, 31-13, to Alabama). I still think the Longhorns are the better overall team, with a defense allowing just 17.4 points per game and will take the generous points even though we don’t think we’ll need them. Texas is also a bargain at +150 or better on the moneyline.
College Football Best Bet: Texas +4
Florida (+3) at #11 Kentucky
Florida (5-4) has been an up-and-down team this season, but has been good to us as an underdog (except for a blowout loss at Georgia two weeks ago). But this is more of a play against Kentucky, which I believe has been overrated and was exposed in a 34-6 blowout loss at Tennessee last Saturday. Regular readers will recognize this as an “anti-swagger play” against the Wildcats as they had a six-game winning streak snapped in that game. Heck, UK coach Will Stein even said after the loss that “It’s important to keep our swag,” so even he knows that’s a danger, and just because he told his players that doesn’t mean it’ll keep them from losing their swag and having a letdown. Florida’s CFB Playoff hopes are shot, but they can still play spoiler if they approach this game as they did in their upsets of Ole Miss and Texas.
College Football Best Bet: Florida +3
For more Week 11 college football best bets, visit the Week 11 College Football Betting Hub, exclusively on VSiN.com.
For more pro picks for tonight’s games, visit the VSiN Pro Picks page.
Who does the betting public like in tonight’s games? The VSiN Betting Splits pages show up-to-the-minute betting action from DraftKings and Circa.
Subscribe to VSiN Pro to get Dave Tuley’s picks throughout the season, plus picks from our experts across all major sports.
See what our Opta projections predict for this week’s NFL and NBA action.
Download VSiN’s Betting Guides for an in-depth look at every major sport to help you identify the best value bets.
