March Madness: Matt Youmans breaks down each region of the NCAA Tournament
Instead of avoiding the elephant in the room, it’s best to immediately confront it. A college basketball team that many of us despised for many years has suddenly become likable. That team, of course, is Duke. The player who makes that team possible to admire and even root for is freshman phenom Cooper Flagg.
As a longtime critic of Mike Krzyzewski, it’s not easy for me to write nice things about the Blue Devils. However, Coach K retired in 2022, and a dark cloud lifted. Jon Scheyer is a cool, young coach who wins without making it all about himself. He’s a fresh-faced 37-year-old, not a two-faced, insufferable egomaniac. The best player Scheyer has recruited is Flagg, who’s great without being annoying, unlike so many Duke stars of the past. This is a new era.
I’m dancing with the Devils in this NCAA tournament and not feeling bad or hypocritical about it.
In the 12 hours or so after the 68-team bracket was revealed Sunday, I bet a handful of games, hosted a VSiN show with Greg “Hoops” Peterson and filled out my bracket. Unlike Peterson, I am not picking all of the No. 1 seeds to reach the Final Four. But in the end, I did advance two top seeds with one of those as my national champion, and that’s Duke.
It was 2:25 a.m. Monday, when I walked into the Circa sportsbook and the lone ticket writer on duty said, “Where are all the upsets? I don’t see any.”
I assured him there will be upsets and mentioned a few possibilities, but he shook his head in denial. What makes this tournament so intriguing is the games are never as easy to predict as they appear on paper.
Here’s a breakdown of my initial bets and bracket picks:
East Region
Flagg suffered an ankle injury in the ACC tournament and was put in a wheelchair, which is always concerning. We have not witnessed a player jump out of a wheelchair and win a game since Paul Pierce pulled off the miracle for the Boston Celtics in Game 1 of the 2008 NBA Finals. Flagg missed two games, and it was encouraging to see Duke beat North Carolina and Louisville without him. Scheyer said Flagg is “full steam ahead” to return this week, so that’s no longer a concern.
The Blue Devils have a clear path to the Elite Eight. In their half of the bracket, No. 4 Arizona and No. 5 Oregon should not be upset threats. The bottom half of the bracket does feature four teams worthy of respect — Alabama, Wisconsin, Brigham Young and Saint Mary’s — but Duke obviously must beat only one of those teams to reach the Final Four. I have sixth-seeded BYU reaching the East final and falling to Duke.
I studied the math probabilities at EvanMiya.com, where 10,000 tournament simulations were run using team ratings, and Duke emerged as the most likely NCAA champion at 24.7 percent. (The next three on the list are Houston at 15.4 percent, Florida at 15.1 and Auburn at 13.1). The Blue Devils are given a 54.2 percent shot to reach the Final Four.
My three first-round bets in this region: BYU -2 over VCU; Montana +17.5 over Wisconsin; Akron +14 over Arizona.
Midwest Region
I believe Houston is the No. 1 seed most likely to get upset and fail to reach the Final Four down the road in San Antonio. The Cougars are No. 3 in the KenPom.com ratings (behind Duke and Florida) and sit in the top 10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency, yet their slow tempo (No. 360) can lead to close games and leaves less margin for error when trying to overcome a poor shooting performance. Houston gets the Gonzaga-Georgia winner in the second round. No. 4 Purdue and No. 5 Clemson will be on upset alert in the first round.
Tennessee should survive as the No. 2 seed in the bottom half of the bracket. Illinois is too inconsistent, and Kentucky has sustained too many personnel losses this season. My darkhorse team here is Xavier, a No. 11 seed with the potential to go from the First Four in Dayton to the Sweet 16. Musketeers coach Sean Miller is no stranger to March misery, but maybe he will make a run now when it’s least expected.
A go-to scorer who can take over games is a huge key to winning in this tournament. Last year, Houston had that in Jamal Shead and Tennessee had that in Dalton Knecht. I have not been that high on either the Cougars or Volunteers this year, but this looks like the weakest region beyond the top two seeds, so I can’t find Cinderella and will roll with the Vols to get coach Rick Barnes over the top.
My three first-round bets in this region: Xavier -2 over Texas; High Point +8 over Purdue; McNeese +7.5 over Clemson.
South Region
Auburn is the tournament’s No. 1 overall seed, despite losing three of its last four games, and headlines the 14 Southeastern Conference teams in the field. If Flagg is not the nation’s top player, it’s the Tigers’ Johni Broome. After getting stunned by Yale in last year’s first round, Auburn will come in angry and play with an edge.
This is the 25th anniversary of Michigan State coach Tom Izzo’s only national title, but I don’t believe in fairytales or any team from the Big Ten, which is 0-8 in title games since Izzo’s win in 2000 and after Purdue’s loss to Connecticut a year ago. The second-seeded Spartans’ weakness is 3-point shooting (30.2 percent) and that will likely be their downfall.
Iowa State, seeded No. 3, was 15-1 on Jan. 15. The Cyclones are 9-8 since then and now will be without injured guard Keshon Gilbert, the team’s second-leader scorer. My darkhorse in this region is sixth-seeded Mississippi, which has the scoring, toughness and coach to advance to the Elite Eight. Rebels coach Chris Beard has March magic in his past. Auburn is too talented, with too many veterans to lose early. In this case, it’s good to be old — coach Bruce Pearl’s rotation has an average age of 23.2 years, comparable to the NBA’s best team (24.4 for the Oklahoma City Thunder).
My only first-round bet in this region: Yale +7.5 over Texas A&M. I will add more, but this region requires further review. Big West champ UC San Diego, the best ATS team in the nation at 25-7, is already too popular as a 2.5-point underdog to Big Ten tournament champ Michigan. The Wolverines could be a classic contrarian favorite in a 5-12 matchup.
West Region
UConn coach Dan Hurley is not getting a title three-peat, though I do expect the eighth-seeded Huskies to get to the second round and fall to Florida. It’s probably not a great thing that the Gators won the SEC and expended a lot of energy to accomplish it. I hate that two of my best futures bets (Florida 10-1 and St. John’s 80-1) are on teams in the same region.
Rick Pitino is a coaching wizard who has been there and done it, which gives him an advantage over Gators coach Todd Golden, who never has won an NCAA tournament game. Pitino recently said St. John’s could lose in the first round or make a run to the Final Four. He’s not losing to Omaha, but Pitino will face either Bill Self (Kansas) or John Calipari (Arkansas) in the second round.
This region is loaded with talented teams, so there is plenty of upset potential after the first round. It’s tough not to love Florida, but Pitino has been my guy for a long time. The Red Storm (30-4) lost four games by a total of seven points, which is remarkable. St. John’s ranks No. 1 in defensive efficiency, ahead of Houston, Tennessee, Duke and Michigan State.
My two first-round bets in this region: Arkansas +4.5 over Kansas; Grand Canyon +10.5 over Maryland.
So my Final Four includes two No. 1s (Auburn and Duke) and two No. 2s (St. John’s and Tennessee). As an underdog bettor, I hate to play so much chalk, but there’s no denying the strength of this tournament’s top seeds, especially Duke.
As Rocky Balboa once said to the Russian crowd after beating Ivan Drago, “If I can change, and you can change, everybody can change.”
I no longer dislike Duke, which I bet at 12-1 odds before the season, and will dance with the Blue Devils to win it all.
