March Madness Picks – Tuley’s College Basketball Takes for Thursday, March 19:
Legend has it that Hall of Fame broadcaster and VSiN founder Brent Musburger was with CBS Sports in the 1980s when the network started televising the NCAA Tournament, and he borrowed the phrase “March Madness” from the Illinois High School Association, which had used it for more than four decades.
The phrase gained nationwide popularity and even led to a copyright lawsuit, with a federal court giving dual use to the IHSA for high school basketball and the NCAA for colleges. It certainly applies to the whole month of wall-to-wall basketball action, even though it’s now most synonymous with the NCAA Tournament, which starts in earnest with the first round games on Thursday and Friday.
We love this time of year in the Tuley’s Takes home office, and feel we entering this week with momentum after our “dog or pass” picks went 3-2 ATS last Thursday and Friday in the major conference tournament with Thursday wins on Oklahoma +1.5, which won outright vs. Texas A&M, and Florida State +17.5 in a near-upset of No. 1 Duke. Losses were on UNLV and Auburn, but then we added another win Friday with Oklahoma covering in an 82-79 loss to Arkansas in the SEC quarterfinals.
I already had some picks in the VSiN March Mania Betting Guide that came out Monday night, including giving out Duke +350 to win the national title (for my full “take” on betting the favorite – but at plus-money, so I feel I keep my “dog or pass” title intact! (Check out the info-packed Betting Guide with your VSiN subscription.)
For our purposes here, I’m giving my “Tuley’s Takes” for Thursday’s first-round games and will have another Friday column also posted at VSiN.com. I would be remiss if I didn’t repeat something else I wrote in the Betting Guide about the state of college basketball betting. As an underdog bettor who has long thrived on March Madness upsets, we certainly know the landscape has changed by leaps and bounds in recent years with the transfer portal and NIL deals. This has caused a bigger gap between the haves and have-nots. In fact, all four No. 1 seeds made the Final Four in a chalk-filled tournament that saw favorites go 50-13 straight-up (79.4%) and 35-28 ATS (55.5%). Note: In totals wagering, Unders dominated even more at 37-25-1 (59.7%), including sweeping the Final Four and title game.
So, we definitely have to be more selective to find live underdogs in this new era. The good news is that oddsmakers have set the lines historically high (all No. 4 seeds or higher are favored by double digits), and there are plenty of opportunities to fade the public looking to load up again on the chalk, so let’s go looking for those live dogs.
Troy +13 vs. Nebraska
Thursday, 12:40 p.m. ET
The first round tips off with this 4-13 matchup between Nebraska of the Big Ten (still hard to consider the Cornhuskers in this conference) vs. Troy, winners of the one-bid Sun Belt. The Big Ten has nine teams in the field, second only to the SEC’s 10, and a lot of bettors are looking to bet on the strong conference, especially after a strong performance last March at 13-8 SU and placing four teams in the Sweet 16. But not here, where we’re looking to fade overinflated lines. Granted, you’ve probably heard or read that Nebraska is the only power conference school without a March Madness victory (0-8 SU) and agree that probably ends here, but we have a lot of wiggle room for an underrated Troy team to cover for us. My only trepidation is that Troy is turning into a public dog (while we usually prefer to be contrarian) with 61% of the bets and 83% of the money on Troy at DraftKings, according to the Betting Splits page, plus, as much as I love my VSiN colleagues, several are also on Troy. But value is value, and I can’t resist.
South Florida +5 vs. Louisville
Thursday, 1:30 p.m. ET
This line opened between Louisville -6 and -7 on Selection Sunday. I wish I had bet it right away, as the line has dipped to a consensus 5 as of Tuesday afternoon. Louisville star Mikel Brown Jr. was already considered questionable as he hasn’t played in nearly three weeks, so that was already factored into the line and I see South Florida (25-8), coming off its American Conference Championship in the one-bid league, able to keep up with the Cardinals in what should be a shootout with a high betting total of 165.5 points, so both teams projected to be in the 80s. Louisville has the better offense (No. 19 at kenpom.com). They have to be downgraded a notch on a neutral court in Buffalo, N.Y., as they rely on the 3-pointers more than I’d like. It’s great when they’re falling, but I’d rather be backing those types of teams as underdogs and hoping they get hot to pull an upset as opposed to counting on them to cover a spread. South Florida’s offensive rebounding (Top 10 nationally) should keep them close. I wish I had +7, but +5 is still value if Brown is out. However, if he is able to start and the line goes higher, I’ll be happy to re-bet more because I wouldn’t expect Brown to be 100% or contribute too much (the last time Brown played, he only scored 5 points in 21 minutes vs. Clemson).
Hawaii +15 vs. Arkansas
Thursday, 4:25 p.m. ET
As stated above, it looks like all the 1-4 seeds will be favored by double digits, and we have that here with No. 4 Arkansas laying 15 points. Now, coach John Calipari’s high-flying offense (No. 6 in efficiency at kenpom.com) is certainly capable of a rout, but the Razorbacks’ defense leaves a lot to be desired, and I can’t help but feel this won’t be a blowout win and Calipari will be content with a comfortable win. In addition, Hawaii is not your typical undersized mid-major team as they have five players at 6-foot-6 or taller, including 7-footer Isaac Johnson. While Arkansas will be running and gunning (No. 20 in Adjusted Tempo) and chucking up 3s, Hawaii should be able to keep in the game with plenty of easy shots in the paint and put-backs.
Saint Louis +2 vs. Georgia
Thursday, 9:45 p.m. ET
This is an 8-9 matchup with Georgia opening after the Selection Show on Sunday as a short 1.5- to 2-point favorite, and the SEC team was bet up to -2.5 and even 3 by the time I gave out Saint Louis in the Betting Guide. The line has settled at Georgia -2 as of Tuesday afternoon, but I’m still on the Billikens as I believe they’re being overlooked after losing in the Atlantic 10 semifinals to Dayton and needing an at-large bid. I mean, I wouldn’t be taking them as a 2- to 3-point dog if I didn’t expect them to win outright. I actually bet against Saint Louis with George Washington +7 in the A-10 tourney and saw the Billikens rally from a 14-point halftime deficit by outscoring GW by 21 points in the halftime to win by 7. While I was bummed by the “Bad Push,” I came away impressed by Saint Louis’ performance. The Billikens play better defense than the Bulldogs and work the ball around for good shots. If they play two complete halves, they have a great shot at the minor upset.
McNeese State +11.5 vs. Vanderbilt
Thursday, 3:15 p.m. ET
No. 12 seeds aren’t the automatic play they used to be vs. No. 5 seeds in the NCAA Tournament, but this looks like one of those old-school 5-12 matchups with McNeese State as a live double-digit underdog with a low seed as Southland Conference champions, just like last year when the Cowboys upset Clemson in a 5-12 matchup. Granted, McNeese State isn’t as good (especially on offense) as their tourney teams the last two years under former coach Will Wade, but its pressure defense is tops in the nation in turnover rate, and they hit the offensive boards for second chances. That should keep the Cowboys in the game. If this line was closer to a “touchdown” (or as the kids say, “6-7”), I would pass, but gimme the double digits.
