March Madness Sweet 16 Analytics Report:

Let’s continue the series qualifying the key data from my recently published articles in the VSiN March Mania Betting Guide for the Sweet 16. Best of luck in the Thursday and Friday games. 

 

Note that all the trend records, unless noted, are heading into this year’s tournament. 

From the “Navigating the Tournament Round by Round” article in the guide, here are the trends and qualifying games for the Round of 16:

Prior Tournament Game Systems

Here are the “prior game reactionary systems” of 60% or better that I found when I studied the subject and how they impact the following games:

NCAA Tournament Prior Game System #2

· Teams that win in the NCAAs by scoring 88 or more points have gone 57-10 SU and 42-25 ATS (62.7%) in the follow-up game since 2000 when favored by six points or more.
Steve’s thoughts: Obviously a big offensive performance can dramatically lift the confidence of a team in a tournament setting. This system should be enhanced in short turnaround games.
This system favors DUKE on Thursday

NCAA Tournament Prior Game System #4

· Teams that win in the NCAAs but are beaten by 7+ points on the point spread have rebounded nicely in the next game, 30-8 SU and 25-12-1 ATS (67.6%) since 2010.
Steve’s thoughts: Because these teams survived underperforming efforts, they are obviously among the stronger teams in the field. There is a reason the term “survive and advance” has accompanied this tournament for years. Don’t expect a second straight flat effort.
This system favors FLORIDA and MARYLAND in the Sweet 16 

• Laying big points seems to be getting more and more risky in the Sweet 16 in recent years, as favorites of five points or more are 14-11 SU but just 8-17 ATS (32%) since 2017.
This trend goes against Duke -9.5, Alabama -5.5, Texas Tech -5.5, Florida -6.5, Auburn -9.5 and Houston -8.5

• Sweet 16 favorites of eight points or more are on a 27-8-3 Under (77.1%) the total run, allowing 62.7 PPG.
This trend favors Under in Arizona-Duke 153.5, Michigan-Auburn 153.5 and  Purdue-Houston 132.5

• Sweet 16 No. 1 and 2 seeds have taken care of business lately and combined are on a 38-17 SU and 31-23-1 ATS (57.4%) run over the last 10 seasons. However, they are just 4-8 SU and ATS over the last two years, as many people’s brackets have been obliterated on those Thursday and Friday nights.
This trend favors Duke -9.5, Alabama -5.5, Florida -6.5, Auburn -9.5, Michigan State -3.5, Houston -8.5 and Tennessee -4.5

• The Sweet 16 is usually the end of the line for double-digit seeds, however, they have been very competitive as underdogs, going 16-7-1 ATS (69.6%) in that role since 2011.
This trend favors Arkansas +5.5

• The popular No. 1 vs. No. 4 matchup has been all No. 1 lately, 12-4 SU and 9-6-1 ATS (60%) over the last 10 tournaments. However, No. 4s Duke and Alabama both won last year over No. 1s.
This trend favors Duke -9.5, Florida -6.5 and Houston -8.5

• Over the last 10 years, there have been 25 Sweet 16 games with totals of less than 138, and Under the total is 18-7 (75%).
This trend favors Under in Purdue-Houston 132.5

• I mentioned earlier that bettors have not enjoyed a winning second round since 2017, and I referenced the short prep window as the potential reason. In the Sweet 16, they have bounced back, going 38-27-1 ATS (58.5%) in moving opening lines since 2012.
As of Tuesday, March 25, this trend was favoring Alabama -5.5, Florida -6.5, Duke -9.5, Michigan State -3.5, Auburn -9.5 and Houston -8.5

From the “Handicapping the tournament by conferences” article, here are the conference trends that will be applicable for the Sweet 16 games on Thursday and Friday:

ACC

Teams in the field/First matchup
DUKE (East #1) vs. ARIZONA — Big 12

Trends
– Over the last three NCAA Tournaments, the ACC boasts a record of 33-15 SU and ATS (68.8%).
This trend favors Duke -9.5

– ACC teams are on a surge of 11-4 SU and 13-2 ATS (86.7%) in the NCAAs versus Big 12 foes, including 3-0 SU and ATS last year. In addition, underdogs are on an impressive 9-9 SU and 13-5 ATS (72.2%) surge in the matchup.
The ACC trend favors Duke -9.5, the underdog trend favors Arizona +9.5

Big 12

Teams in the field/First matchup
ARIZONA (East #4) vs. DUKE — ACC
BYU (East #6) vs. ALABAMA — SEC
HOUSTON (Midwest #1) vs. PURDUE — Big Ten
TEXAS TECH (West #3) vs. ARKANSAS — SEC

Trends
– Big 12 teams in the No. 4 vs. No. 8 seed ranges are on a slide of 25-35 SU and 22-37 ATS (37.3%) since 2010, popular upset victims.
This trend goes against Arizona +9.5 and BYU +5.5

– Favorites are 14-6 SU and 12-7-1 ATS (63.2%) in the last 20 NCAA Tournament games between the Big 12 and Big Ten.
This trend favors Houston -8.5

– Big 12 teams have lost 59 of their 74 NCAA Tournament games since 2000 as underdogs of 2.5 points or more and are 30-43-1 ATS (41.1%) in those games.
This trend goes against Arizona +9.5 and BYU +5.5

– As favorites of seven points or more in the NCAAs, Big 12 teams are on a run of 31-2 SU and 22-11 ATS (66.7%).
This trend favors Houston -8.5

Big Ten

Teams in the field/First matchup
MARYLAND (West #4) vs. FLORIDA — SEC
MICHIGAN (South #5) vs. AUBURN — SEC
MICHIGAN STATE (South #2) vs. OLE MISS — SEC
PURDUE (Midwest #4) vs. HOUSTON — Big 12

Trends
–  Big Ten teams have been vulnerable in the No. 4 seed of late, 4-13-1 ATS (23.5%) in their last 18 tournament tries.
This trend goes against Maryland +6.5 and Purdue +8.5

– Overall, Big Ten teams and top-6 seeds haven’t meshed well since 2015, as they are 49-33 SU but 35-46-1 ATS (43.2%) in that scenario.
This trend goes against Maryland +6.5, Michigan +9.5, Michigan State -3.5 and  Purdue +8.5

–  Big Ten teams are on a 13-8 SU and 15-5-1 ATS (75%) run vs. SEC foes in the NCAA Tournament, including 2-1 SU and ATS last year.
This trend goes against Maryland +6.5, Michigan +9.5 and Michigan State -3.5

– Big Ten teams have gone just 16-20 SU and 15-20-1 ATS (42.9%) since 2015 in the NCAA tournament vs. Big 12 foes.
This trend goes against Purdue +8.5

– For as good as Big Ten teams have been in the big favorite role, they have been brutal as underdogs of 5.5 points or more in the tournament, 6-53 SU and 21-38 ATS (35.6%) since 1998. They were 0-3 SU and ATS in this role a year ago, losing by 19 PPG.
This trend goes against Maryland +6.5, Michigan +9.5 and Purdue +8.5

– In tournament games of the second round and later, Big Ten teams are just 22-35 SU & 23-32-2 ATS (41.8%) since 2017.
This trend goes against Maryland +6.5, Michigan +9.5, Michigan State -3.5 and Purdue +8.5

SEC

Teams in the field/First matchup
ALABAMA (East #2) vs. BYU — Big 12
ARKANSAS (West #10) vs. TEXAS TECH — Big 12
AUBURN (South #1) vs. MICHIGAN — Big Ten
FLORIDA (West #1) vs. MARYLAND — Big Ten
KENTUCKY (Midwest #3) vs. TENNESSEE — SEC
OLE MISS (South #6) vs. MICHIGAN STATE — Big Ten
TENNESSEE (Midwest #2) vs. KENTUCKY — SEC

Trends
– The last five NCAA tournaments have been a struggle for SEC teams, as they are just 44-43 SU and 33-54 ATS (37.9%) since the Friday of the first round in the 2018 tourney. They were a combined 8-8 SU and ATS in 2024. This trend figures to get tested heavily in ’25.
This trend goes against Alabama -5.5, Arkansas +5.5, Auburn -9.5, Florida, -6.5, Ole Miss +3.5 — Note: Kentucky and Tennessee cancel each other out

– Underdogs are 48-32 ATS (60%) in the last 80 SEC NCAA Tournament games overall, but they were just 5-11 ATS last year.
This trend goes against Alabama -5.5, Auburn -9.5, Florida, -6.5 and Tennessee -4.5 but favors Arkansas +5.5, Ole Miss +3.5 and Kentucky +4.5

– As pick-’ems or small favorites of five points or less, SEC teams are an ugly 45-51 SU and 37-55-4 ATS (40.2%) in the NCAAs since 1999.
This trend goes against Ole Miss +3.5 and Kentucky +4.5

– SEC teams have been a solid wager in the Sweet 16 round, 23-14-2 ATS (62.2%) since 2003.
This trend favors Alabama -5.5, Arkansas +5.5, Auburn -9.5, Florida, -6.5, Ole Miss +3.5 – Note: Kentucky and Tennessee cancel each other out

– Seeded in the bottom half of the field (#9-#14), SEC teams have struggled to a 10-25 SU and 13-20-2 ATS (39.4%) record since 2007.
This trend goes against Arkansas +5.5

There are only three Sweet 16 games with any recent relevancy in terms of head-to-head history:

(625) ARIZONA at (626) DUKE
* UNDER the total is on a 3-0 streak in the Arizona-Duke series since 2013

(629) ARKANSAS at (630) TEXAS TECH
* ARKANSAS is on a 3-0 ATS streak versus Texas Tech since 2016, and UNDER the total has converted in the last four head-to-head meetings

(639) KENTUCKY at (640) TENNESSEE
* UNDERDOGS have converted in the last seven Kentucky-Tennessee rivalry games both straight up and against the spread

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