Men’s and Women’s College Basketball Best Bets:
Do you hear that? That’s the sound of the college basketball season turning the corner into our favorite time of year: March Madness. The NCAA Tournament will soon be upon us, but first we have a week’s worth of final conference tournaments to finish up before Selection Sunday gives us the matchups and paths we’ll all be analyzing into oblivion.
On the men’s side today, there’s a very small slate as some mid-majors finish up their tournaments and the major conferences are still a day or two away from commencing. There’s actually a bigger slate on the women’s side today, so I will do my best to monitor those lines as they trickle in and put out some plays on those. One note I want to make: caution betting Overs using TSI for these late-tournament games. I don’t make manual adjustments for things I can’t actually quantify, but there’s no doubt that fatigue will be a factor, so tread lightly when you see some surface-level value on Overs.
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- NCAAB Expert Picks
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- NCAAB Betting Splits
- NCAAB Betting Odds
Reminder on how to read the projections: If the spread is a positive number, that indicates the team on the left (Home, unless neutral site) is favored by TSI. If the spread is a negative, that indicates the team on the right (Away, unless neutral side) is favored by TSI. TSI total is the projected number of combined points in the game.
Here are today’s projections for the mixture of some regular season games with some conference tournament games:
Men’s
| Team | Team | TSI Spread | TSI Total |
| Cleveland State | Youngstown State | 1.2 | 140.8 |
| Furman | Wofford | 0.3 | 142.9 |
| Gonzaga | San Francisco | 9.2 | 152.5 |
| Idaho State | Montana State | -0.9 | 143.2 |
| Nicholls State | Incarnate Word | 4.2 | 142.2 |
| Northwestern State | Texas A&M-Corpus Christi | -4.0 | 139.5 |
| Portland State | Idaho | 3.9 | 144.9 |
| Robert Morris | Oakland | 3.1 | 144.7 |
| Saint Mary’s (CA) | Pepperdine | 15.5 | 142.1 |
| Towson | Delaware | 4.9 | 148.7 |
| Troy | Arkansas State | -3.1 | 143.6 |
| UNC Wilmington | College of Charleston | 1.8 | 151.2 |
Leans:
Montana State +1.5
Idaho +5.5
Women’s
| Team | Team | TSI Spread | TSI Total |
| Albany (NY) | Maine | 8.5 | 116.3 |
| Army | Lafayette | 14.2 | 122.0 |
| Central Connecticut State | Chicago State | 5.5 | 135.1 |
| Colgate | Bucknell | 5.6 | 121.6 |
| Colorado State | Fresno State | 9.8 | 128.9 |
| Connecticut | Creighton | 19.5 | 138.7 |
| Fairleigh Dickinson | Long Island University | 22.2 | 117.7 |
| Gonzaga | Oregon State | 2.7 | 127.8 |
| Green Bay | Robert Morris | 16.2 | 118.4 |
| Idaho | Montana | 4.3 | 129.2 |
| James Madison | Arkansas State | 10.4 | 137.4 |
| Lehigh | Boston University | 16.5 | 126.4 |
| Navy | Holy Cross | -1.4 | 122.8 |
| Nevada-Las Vegas | Boise State | 10.9 | 138.7 |
| North Texas | East Carolina | 2.8 | 127.3 |
| Northwestern State | Texas A&M-Corpus Christi | 1.9 | 117.6 |
| Portland | Washington State | 5.2 | 140.1 |
| Purdue Fort Wayne | Cleveland State | 1.7 | 137.1 |
| Saint Francis (PA) | Le Moyne | 1.1 | 121.0 |
| San Diego State | New Mexico | 4.5 | 136.4 |
| South Florida | Tulane | 6.1 | 129.7 |
| Stonehill | Wagner | 6.4 | 128.7 |
| Temple | Charlotte | 14.1 | 130.0 |
| Texas-Rio Grande Valley | Nicholls State | -0.7 | 118.8 |
| UTSA | Rice | 5.7 | 123.6 |
| Vermont | Bryant | 12.3 | 111.7 |
| Weber State | Idaho State | -2.0 | 130.2 |
| Wyoming | Air Force | 8.1 | 122.3 |
Bets:
UConn/Creighton Under 140.5 (play to 139.5)
Boise State +14.5 (Play to +13.5)
Portland -1.5 (Play to -3)
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