Wake up with VSiN Daily Morning Bets, a quick 15-minute podcast posted at 7 a.m. ET highlighting the top games and biggest line moves of the day. For a full breakdown of Monday’s betting action be sure to catch the VSiN Market Insights Podcast at 3 p.m. ET.
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In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for Monday’s NCAA Championship game…
This game will be played at NRG Stadium, home of the Houston Texans. San Diego State (32-6) just beat FAU 72-71 on a Final Four buzzer beater but failed to cover as 2.5-point favorites. On the flip side, Connecticut (30-8) just brushed aside Miami 72-59, cruising as 5.5-point favorites. This line opened with Connecticut listed as a 7-point neutral site favorite. Some books even opened UConn -6.5. Pros have laid the chalk, steaming the Huskies up to -7.5. Currently 75% of bets and 81% of money is backing UConn, signaling both public and sharp support. Ken Pom has UConn winning by five points (69-64). The next line move will be critical. If we see this line rise to -8, it will be further evidence of UConn support. But if it drops down to -7 that will indicate late money breaking San Diego State’s way. Favorites are 10-7 ATS in the NCAA Championship game over the past 17 seasons. San Diego State has value as a contrarian play (only receiving 19% of bets) in a heavily bet primetime game.
We’ve also seen this total rise from 130.5 to 132.5. Now that the total has risen two points, there could be a buy-low inflated under opportunity for value-driven bettors, The under is receiving only 19% of bets but 59% of money, a sharp contrarian discrepancy. The under is 11-6 in the last 17 title games. Both teams rank in the top 8 in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency. Both teams are also slow in terms of tempo, averaging roughly 66 possessions per game.