NCAA Sweet 16 Best Bets

Thursday Games

San Diego State vs. Connecticut (-11)

A year ago, Dan Hurley arrived in Las Vegas for the Sweet 16 and his Connecticut basketball team put on a Strip-worthy show. The Huskies beat Arkansas by 23 points before blowing out Gonzaga by 28 en route to the Final Four. UConn won its six NCAA Tournament games by an average margin of 20 points last year, and the trend of double-digit wins has continued in this tournament. It would be stunning if the Huskies get upset this week. It would be surprising if Hurley even has to sweat out a close game, which makes UConn a Sweet 16 best bet.

A rematch of last year’s NCAA championship game is on tap Thursday night, but it has the look of another mismatch. UConn is an 11-point favorite against San Diego State in the East Region in Boston, where the Huskies essentially have home-court advantage. It’s a major situational disadvantage for the Aztecs, who played Sunday’s late game in Spokane, Washington, flew home overnight and then made a quick turnaround trip across the country.

 

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Jaedon LeDee, a 6-foot-9 senior power forward, is San Diego State’s best player. He’s the team’s top scorer (21.5 ppg) and rebounder and the offense runs through him. LeDee averaged 29 points in tournament victories over UAB and Yale, a couple of teams that have nothing in common with UConn.

LeDee is about to face 7-2 Donovan Clingan and the toughest defense he has seen all season. The Huskies rank No. 8 in defensive efficiency, per Kenpom.com, and are too athletic and big to allow LeDee to muscle his way to the rim as he routinely does. LeDee is the lone Aztecs player who averages double figures in scoring, so if he’s not pouring in points, who will?

San Diego State ambushed Yale in the second round by making 13 3-pointers, but that shooting exhibition was an outlier and it’s time for regression. In the previous five games, the Aztecs shot 26.7% from 3-point range with an average of 5.8 made 3s.

UConn suffered through a miserable 3-point shooting game (3-for-22) in the second round versus Northwestern yet still won by 17 points. The Huskies are shooting 36.7% from 3 this season and have five double-figure scorers in Clingan, forward Alex Karaban and guards Tristen Newton, Cam Spencer and Stephon Castle.

Due to their toughness, rebounding and will to win, the Aztecs deserve respect. However, they are too limited offensively and too reliant on one player to hang with the Huskies for a majority of the 40 minutes. UConn took last year’s meeting 76-59, and the rematch should result in a similar score.

I rarely bet big favorites but have made an exception a few times with UConn, with Hurley’s relentless intensity part of the reason. He’s becoming the college basketball version of Nick Saban, a demanding coach who does not allow his players to coast or let things slide and always goes for the throat.

When the line opened Sunday night, I bet UConn -9.5 and -480 on the moneyline because those were bargain prices in my opinion. I made the numbers -12 and -750. The Huskies will cover unless the Aztecs get uncharacteristically hot from 3-point range.

Sweet 16 Best Bets: UConn -11; UConn -650 in various moneyline parlays; San Diego State team total Under 62.5.

Here are my recommended plays on the other Sweet 16 matchups:

Arizona (-7.5) vs Clemson

My bracket shows two big misses (Kentucky to the Final Four and Drake to the Elite Eight), yet I did hit on 11 of the 16 remaining teams, including Clemson. The Tigers have two talented bigs in PJ Hall and Ian Schieffelin and two good guards in Chase Hunter and Joe Girard. Their defense was outstanding in the first two rounds while holding New Mexico to 29% shooting and Baylor to 39% from the field. While the Wildcats will run away with this if it’s a fast-paced transition game, Clemson coach Brad Brownell is likely to slow the tempo and force Arizona to execute its half-court offense. Caleb Love is a dynamic scorer who will lead the Wildcats to the win, but the Tigers should be tough enough to stay within the number.

Sweet 16 Best Bet: Clemson +7.5.

North Carolina (-4.5) vs Alabama

The Tar Heels fit the profile of a potential NCAA title team by ranking inside the Kenpom top 20 in offensive (No. 17) and defensive (No. 6) efficiency. RJ Davis (21.3 ppg) is an elite lead guard and 6-11 Armando Bacot is a force around the basket on both ends. Crimson Tide guard Mark Sears can trade shots with Davis and keep the dog in the fight. This will probably be a volatile shootout with numerous lead changes and scoring runs. The bottom line is North Carolina plays higher-IQ basketball while Alabama runs a helter-skelter offense and ranks No. 101 in defensive efficiency. I’m laying the points and also playing the moneyline (-200).

Sweet 16 Best Bet: North Carolina -4.5.

Iowa State (-1.5) vs Illinois

The Big 12 tournament champs do it with defense (No. 1 in efficiency) and the Big Ten tournament champs are all offense (No. 1 in efficiency). In matchups of contrasting styles, I typically go with the strong defensive team. The coaching edge goes to Brad Underwood of Illinois, which also will have the best player on the floor. Terrence Shannon has averaged 31.6 points in his past five games for the Fighting Illini, who I plan to live bet if the line on the underdog gets to +4 or more. The Cyclones can score because the Illini will allow it.

Sweet 16 Best Bet: Over 146 for a half-unit.

Friday Games

Marquette (-6.5) vs North Carolina State

The play of Tyler Kolek should make the difference in an up-tempo track meet, and Marquette’s point guard is as good as it gets. Kolek has averaged 19.5 points and 11 assists in two tournament wins, with the Golden Eagles scoring 87 and 81 points.

Sweet 16 Best Bets: Marquette -6.5 and Over 151 for a half-unit each.

Purdue (-5.5) vs Gonzaga

Mark Few should have a good idea of how to attack Purdue’s 7-4 Zach Edey. Will his players be capable of executing the plan? Expect the Zags to run multiple screen-roll actions to attack Edey in the paint and attempt to get him in foul trouble while also trying to pull him away from the basket to defend in space. The Boilermakers beat Gonzaga by double digits in each of the team’s two meetings in holiday tournaments the past two seasons, but Few is a shrewd coach who learned a few things from those losses. Purdue ranks No. 1 nationally in 3-point shooting percentage (40.8) and needs sophomore point guard Braden Smith to play a co-starring role to Edey. The Zags are hot and should stick within striking distance. It’s too risky to trust the Boilermakers to play their “A” game on the big stage in this tournament.

Sweet 16 Best Bets: Gonzaga +5.5 and Over 154.5.

Houston (-4) vs Duke

The Cougars have a surplus of toughness, especially senior guard Jamal Shead, but they lack depth and size. Shead played 45 minutes Sunday night in Houston’s overtime victory over Texas A&M, so how much gas does he have left in the tank? The Cougars were better last year, when they were led by NBA first-round picks Marcus Sasser and Jarace Walker, and that team fell short of the Final Four. I think they are the most vulnerable of the four No. 1 seeds. The Blue Devils came into this tournament with little buzz and that was a good thing. Duke, which is deeper and more talented, needs 7-foot sophomore Kyle Filipowski to lead the way with his size advantage and inside-outside scoring ability.

Sweet 16 Best Bet: Duke +4.

Tennessee (-2.5) vs Creighton

Iowa State, Houston and Tennessee are the top three teams in defensive efficiency. Volunteers point guard Zakai Zeigler is a relentless menace on the defensive end and will make it difficult for the Bluejays to run their half-court offense. Tennessee and coach Rick Barnes can get over the tournament hump with the superior defense and the scoring of Dalton Knecht (21.1 ppg). This one will likely go to the wire.

Sweet 16 Best Bet: Tennessee -145 moneyline and Under 144.

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