Vanderbilt vs. Saint Mary’s March Madness Preview and Prediction
In the No. 10 vs. No. 7 matchup in the NCAA Tournament East Region, the Vanderbilt Commodores face the Saint Mary’s Gaels in first-round action.
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How to Watch Vanderbilt vs. Saint Mary’s
When: 3:15 p.m. ET on Friday, March 21st
Where: Rocket Arena in Cleveland, Ohio
Watch: trutV
Odds for Vanderbilt vs. Saint Mary’s
(odds current at time of publish)
Spread: Saint Mary’s -4.5 (-110), Vanderbilt +4.5 (-110)
Total: Over 135.5 (-110), Under 135.5 (-110)
DraftKings Betting Splits | Live College Basketball Odds | Vanderbilt vs. Saint Mary’s Matchup Page
Vanderbilt vs. Saint Mary’s Preview & Prediction
The Saint Mary’s Gaels and Vanderbilt Commodores are set to face off in a compelling 7 vs. 10 matchup in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. Saint Mary’s enters the tournament with a 28-5 record, having dominated the West Coast Conference with a 17-1 conference record. Despite their success, the Gaels have struggled to make deep runs in the tournament, with their last Sweet Sixteen appearance dating back to 2010.
Saint Mary’s strength lies in their defense, ranking as a top-10 caliber unit that plays at a slow tempo and makes life difficult for opponents. They excel in 2-point percentage defense and are particularly strong on the boards, averaging nearly 40 rebounds per game. However, their offense has been a concern this season, with the team ranking in the 170s in effective field goal percentage and struggling from beyond the arc.
Vanderbilt, on the other hand, enters the tournament as one of the last teams in the field with a 20-12 record. The Commodores are making their first NCAA Tournament appearance since 2017 under first-year head coach Mark Byington, who led James Madison to the tournament last year. Vanderbilt’s statistical profile is not particularly impressive, with one of the worst 3-point percentage defenses in the field and a ranking in the 270s in effective field goal percentage.
The matchup appears to favor Saint Mary’s, as Vanderbilt’s offensive inefficiency and poor defense align well with the Gaels’ strengths. The game is expected to be played at a slower pace, which should benefit Saint Mary’s. However, the Gaels’ struggles on offense could keep things interesting, especially given Vanderbilt’s ability to force turnovers.
Key players to watch for Saint Mary’s include Augustas Marciulionis, the two-time WCC Player of the Year, who leads the team in scoring and assists. Mitchell Saxen and Paulius Murauskas provide a strong presence in the paint, both averaging double-digit points and nearly 8 rebounds per game.
While Vanderbilt may be a popular fade for bettors, their 7-1 record in close games suggests they could keep things competitive. However, their weak non-conference schedule and struggles against top competition raise questions about their ability to pull off the upset.
As the tournament tips off, all eyes will be on whether Saint Mary’s can finally break through and make a deep run or if Vanderbilt’s Byington can work some magic with his new program.
Estimated Score: Saint Mary’s 70.5, Vanderbilt 65.8
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