UAB vs. San Diego State March Madness Preview and Prediction
In the No. 12 vs. No. 5 matchup in the NCAA Tournament East Region, the UAB Blazers face the San Diego State Aztecs in first-round action.
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How to Watch UAB vs. San Diego State
When: 1:45 pm ET on Friday, March 22nd
Where: Spokane Veterans Memorial Arena in Spokane, Washington
Watch: TNT
Odds for UAB vs. San Diego State
(odds current at time of publish)
Spread: SDSU -7.5
Total: 134.5
DraftKings Betting Splits | Live College Basketball Odds | UAB vs. San Diego State Matchup
East Region No. 12 UAB Blazers
UAB ended up emerging from an under-appreciated American Athletic Conference. The Blazers are just a very good team offensively, ranking right around 60th in adjusted offensive efficiency. Any number of guys on this team can get it going, too. Yaxel Lendeborg is probably the best player UAB has, but Eric Gaines, Efrem Johnson, Alejandro Vasquez and Javian Davis can all play. The question is whether the Blazers can get enough stops against good offensive teams. They were outside the top 200 in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency, and they are horrible about sticking shooters. So, if they run into a hot shooting team, they’ll be in serious trouble. This first matchup will also be a good test for their offense.
East Region No. 5 San Diego State Aztecs
Some of the key contributors from last year’s championship runner-up are back for the class of the Mountain West. The Aztecs are led by forward Jaedon LeDee, who nearly averaged a double-double this season and is one of the smoothest scoring bigs in the nation. San Diego State also has guards Micah Parrish, Lamont Butler and Darrion Trammell back from last season. All of them are capable of having their nights, and the same goes for USC transfer Reese Waters. But the Aztecs are mostly dangerous because of their defense. For the third year in a row, Brian Dutcher has a team that is top 10 in the country in defensive efficiency. The Aztecs are going to try and smother opponents in the tournament, and they’ll then hope an average offense can be just good enough to get the job done.
UAB vs. San Diego State Preview & Prediction
The leap from Conference USA to the AAC was definitely a step up for UAB, but three wins in three days later and here they are in the NCAA Tournament. Even though Andy Kennedy was let go by the program before the team went to Fort Worth for the conference tourney, they played hard for him and had three double-digit victories, including a 16-point win over Temple to ice it.
Statistically, though, these two teams aren’t very comparable. UAB was terrific on the offensive glass and their physical style on the inside led to a lot of free throw attempts, but they’re outside the top 150 in offensive and defensive TO%, 2P%, 3P%, and outside the top 200 in eFG% offense and defense. SDSU was in the top-100 in most defensive categories and much better offensively on 2-point shots than last year’s team.
One of the main criticisms of the Selection Committee is that the Mountain West was under-seeded. I wouldn’t say that the Aztecs are. This year’s team does have a lesser statistical profile than last year’s, especially because they ranked in the 300s in 3P% at 31.3% after shooting 34% from 3 last season. The Aztecs are also down a little bit in the defensive efficiency metrics and went just 4-9 in Quadrant 1 games.
But, UAB will not be a Quadrant 1 game. I think this is a decent matchup for the Aztecs to ease into the tournament, but Auburn looms as a very difficult matchup in the next round.
Estimated Score: San Diego State 74, UAB 67
For expert predictions, go to our college basketball best bets page.
