Morehead State vs. Illinois March Madness Preview and Prediction
In the No. 14 vs. No. 3 matchup in the NCAA Tournament East Region, the Morehead State Eagles face the Illinois Fighting Illini in first-round action.
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How to Watch Morehead State vs. Illinois
When: 3:10 pm ET on Thursday, March 21st
Where: CHI Health Center in Omaha, Nebraska
Watch: TruTV
Odds for Morehead State vs. Illinois
(odds current at time of publish)
Spread: Illinois -13.5
Total: 148.5
DraftKings Betting Splits | Live College Basketball Odds | Morehead State vs. Illinois Matchup
East Region No. 14 Morehead State Eagles
Morehead State has the potential to be a dangerous matchup for anyone. The Eagles have a microwave scorer in guard Riley Minix, and he’s surrounded by other guards that are capable of rising to the occasion. Morehead State is also a top-40 team in EFG% and top-10 team when it comes to EFG% defense. And a big part of that is the fact that the Eagles are good around the basket both offensively and defensively. Morehead State also does a good job of defending the 3-point line, whether it’s actually guarding triples or preventing them from getting up. Overall, the Eagles can manipulate the game in a way that gives them a shot. And they’re full of guys with real confidence.
East Region No. 3 Illinois Fighting Illini
Illinois feels a little under-appreciated heading into March Madness, even after winning the Big Ten tournament. But the Fighting Illini have some serious talent, with Terrence Shannon Jr., Marcus Domask, Coleman Hawkins and Quincy Guerrier being as good as any top four in the nation. Illinois is just incredibly efficient offensively, despite being a team that doesn’t rely heavily on the 3. But Illinois will knock them down when it counts. And the team can score in a number of different ways, which is never bad when the game slows down. The question with the Illini is whether they can consistently get enough stops to make a deep run in this tournament. Their defense left a lot to be desired throughout the season.
Morehead State vs. Illinois Preview & Prediction
The toughest mid-majors to gauge are teams that dominated bad conferences. Morehead State wasn’t that dominant from a wins and losses standpoint, as the Eagles were actually the No. 3 seed in the Ohio Valley Tournament, but they were easily the best team in that conference. Realignment hurt the OVC with the losses of teams like Belmont and Murray State. Bart Torvik’s conference ratings had the OVC 29th out of 32 conferences.
The Big Ten ranked second and the conference tournament champions are the ones in this 14/3 matchup. Morehead State comes into the tourney in the top 10 in eFG% defense, including the top 35 in 3P% and top 20 in 2P%, but they also played the 338th-ranked strength of schedule per Torvik. Alabama beat them by 38 and Purdue beat them by 30. Penn State also beat them by 23.
Morehead State’s Preston Spradlin is a really good head coach, but Illinois matches up really well all over the floor. The Illini suffered in the efficiency metrics on defense because they don’t force any turnovers and they ranked in the 200s in 3P%. Down the line, I think those could be problematic metrics, but not here against Morehead State.
Illinois should comfortably win the battle on the glass and ranked in the top 50 in both eFG% offense and defense while playing a top-40 schedule. Morehead State does shoot a lot of 3s and Illinois will have to respect that, but I don’t think the success of fellow Big Ten teams is indicative of Morehead State having similar success. Keep an eye on that if Illinois faces BYU in the next round, though.
Estimated Score: Illinois 81, Morehead State 68
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