Baylor vs. Mississippi State March Madness Preview and Prediction
In the No. 9 vs. No. 8 matchup in the NCAA Tournament East Region, the Baylor Bears face the Mississippi State Bulldogs in first-round action.
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How to Watch Baylor vs. Mississippi State
When: 12:15 p.m. ET on Friday, March 21st
Where: Lenovo Center in Raleigh, North Carolina
Watch: CBS
Odds for Baylor vs. Mississippi State
(odds current at time of publish)
Spread: Baylor -1.5 (-110), Mississippi State +1.5 (-110)
Total: Over 146.5 (-105), Under 146.5 (-115)
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Baylor vs. Mississippi State Preview & Prediction
Mississippi State enters the tournament as a No. 8 seed, despite finishing the regular season with a losing record in SEC play. The Bulldogs are not a bad team by any stretch; they have a solid foundation, particularly in protecting the basketball and gaining extra possessions through turnovers and offensive rebounds. Their defense is also notable for having one of the highest Block% marks in the nation, and they consistently win the battle in the paint, ranking as a top-50 team in 2-point shooting percentage.
However, their struggles with 3-point shooting and defense are significant. Opponents have taken advantage of this weakness, shooting over 36% from deep, while Mississippi State managed just under 32% from 3-point range overall and a dismal 29.2% in SEC play. This disparity in 3-point shooting has been a major factor in their inconsistent results, including losing four of their last five games before the tournament. Despite these challenges, the Bulldogs’ ability to control the interior could pose problems for Baylor, which has its own set of issues. The Bulldogs just need to find ways to mitigate their shooting struggles if they hope to advance.
Baylor, as a No. 9 seed, has faced criticism for its performance against top-tier opponents, going 1-11 against Quadrant 1-A foes and 5-12 in all Quadrant 1 games. Despite these struggles, the Bears have shown some resilience, particularly on the offensive glass, where they excel. However, their shooting numbers are unimpressive, ranking outside the top 100 in both 3-point and 2-point percentages.
Defensively, Baylor has also struggled to defend the 3-point line and secure rebounds. Coach Scott Drew’s experience in the NCAA Tournament is a notable factor; he has a 20-11 record, including a national championship in 2021. Yet, much of his success has come against lower-seeded teams. The Bears’ recent history in the tournament is marked by early exits as high seeds, losing in the Round of 32 in each of the last three seasons. This year, they face a tough road ahead, with a potential matchup against Duke looming if they can get past Mississippi State.
Baylor’s ability to outshoot Mississippi State from the perimeter could be crucial, given the Bulldogs’ struggles in that area. However, if Mississippi State can find some rhythm from deep or exploit Baylor’s defensive vulnerabilities, they’ll likely end up with a win.
Ultimately, this matchup feels like a toss-up between two teams with significant flaws. Both Mississippi State and Baylor have strengths inside, but their inability to stretch the floor effectively could decide the game. If either team can overcome its weaknesses or capitalize on the other’s, they might find themselves moving on to face Duke in the next round. However, neither team inspires confidence for a deep tournament run beyond this point. The game will likely hinge on which team can better exploit the other’s vulnerabilities, making it an intriguing contest despite their limitations.
Estimated Score: Baylor 71.6, Mississippi State 70.9
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