Duke vs. Alabama March Madness Preview and Prediction
In the No. 1 vs. No. 2 matchup in the NCAA Tournament East Region, the Duke Blue Devils take on the Alabama Crimson Tide in Elite Eight action.
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How to Watch Duke vs. Alabama
When: 8:49 pm ET on Saturday, March 29th
Where: Prudential Center in Newark, NJ
Watch: TBS
Odds for Duke vs. Alabama
(odds current at time of publish)
Spread: Duke -6.5 (-110), Alabama +6.5 (-110)
Total: Over 173.5 (-110), Under 173.5 (-110)
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Duke vs. Alabama Preview & Prediction
Unless you are a fan of another team in the East Region, and maybe even if you are, this is the matchup we wanted in the Elite Eight. These two teams absolutely fit the definition of “elite”. Duke has been the nation’s most balanced team pretty much all season long and Alabama is arguably the nation’s most exciting team, but they’re not all flash. There’s a lot of substance there, too.
So, this is the game we get with a trip to the Final Four on the line in Newark, NJ on Saturday. If Alabama shoots like they did in their first game at the Prudential Center, it seems unlikely that any team in the nation can beat them. The Crimson Tide set a NCAA Tournament record with 25 3-pointers and Mark Sears set an individual record by making 10 of them, as he scored 34 points to lead all scorers. Aden Holloway was 6-of-13 from 3 off the bench and Chris Youngblood was 5-of-11. In other words, Duke has a lot of shooters to worry about.
While Alabama’s offensive barrage was the star of the show and the only thing anybody wanted to talk about, they did give up 88 points to a team that was 6-of-30 from 3 and made one 3-pointer in the first half. BYU effectively got to the rim, going 20-of-26 on close shots and they had 13 offensive rebounds. That seems like a concern against a Duke team that also reached triple digits in their Elite Eight game against Arizona.
The Blue Devils got 63 of their 100 points from their remarkable group of freshmen – Cooper Flagg (30), Kon Knuppel (20), and Khaman Maluach (13). It is only fair to point out that Arizona scored 93 points and was 12-of-26 from 3, so Duke had some coverage issues in that game to be sure. It took a 60% effort from the floor to win by seven, which still didn’t even cover the spread. Duke also lost the battle on the offensive glass, an important stat given the Crimson Tide’s size with Cliff Omoruyi and Grant Nelson.
Much like Alabama, Duke is a team that can score at all three levels. Both teams also have high Rim & 3 Rates, so this is likely to be a shootout, as the total implies and as all of the projection systems forecast. The Blue Devils also have the much more impressive set of defensive metrics, but Duke had played the 52nd-ranked slate of opposing offenses going into the game against Arizona, while Alabama had played the top-ranked slate of opposing offenses before facing BYU, a top-10 offense in their own right.
With a down year in the ACC, Duke has played 10 Quadrant 1-A games, while Alabama has played 17. Is it more impressive that Duke bludgeoned most of their ACC opponents to really stand out in the metrics or should we favor Alabama’s heightened degree of difficulty and the strong numbers that they were able to produce?
Estimated Score: Duke 90, Alabama 84
For expert predictions, go to our college basketball best bets page.
