NCAA Tournament First Four Games Analytics Report:
The VSiN March Mania Betting Guide includes a plethora of trends, strength ratings and much more for this year’s tournament. So if you haven’t picked it up yet, I highly suggest you do so. Over the next three weeks, I will be putting out a series of seven round-by-round articles that encompass, update and qualify all of the information in the guide for the upcoming games. These mini “Analytics Reports” are similar to my daily NBA reports.
In his email introducing the March Mania Betting Guide to us VSiN employees, Managing Editor Adam Burke described the process of putting the guide together as “a daunting task given the tight turnaround, but a shining example of the great work we can produce because of the people that work here.” I wholeheartedly agree. The info I will be updating you on is a big part of it. So let’s get started, looking at the First Four games and the trends and systems available to help handicap the games.
Navigating the Tournament Round by Round
Here are the trends and qualifying games for the First Four round:
• Over the last 12 NCAA Tournaments, underdogs own a 26-21 ATS (55.3%) edge in the First Four round.
The underdogs for the First Four games are St. Francis (Pa.), San Diego State, Mount St. Mary’s and Texas
• Since 2001, only nine First Four games had lines of five points or higher. Favorites are 7-2 SU and 6-3 ATS (66.7%) in those games.
None of this year’s First Four games are priced as high as five points, although it is possible North Carolina (-4.5) could reach that mark by tip-off
• More on point spread benchmarks, in that same span since 2001, favorites of fewer than five points are 28-23 SU but just 21-29-1 ATS (42%)
The small favorites for the First Four games are Alabama State, North Carolina, American and Xavier
• Outright winners have gone 39-3 ATS (92.9%) in the First Four since 2013 although in a strange most recent loss, Drake did beat Wichita State without covering in 2021 on a 1.5-point spread.
Money line winners are typically point spread winners as well
• Higher totaled First Four games, or those higher than 139, have also trended 15-7 Under (68.2%)
The North Carolina-San Diego State and Xavier-Texas games both have totals in the 140s
• Formerly, all First Four games matched No. 16 seeds. But recently First Four games featuring seeds 12 or better have trended 17-7 Under (70.8%)
The North Carolina-San Diego State and Xavier-Texas games are both games matching No. 11 seeds
• There has also been a noticeable differentiation in performance levels of favorites/underdogs in the seed number matchups of the First Four lately. In the games pitting No. 16 seeds, underdogs are on a 14-9 ATS 60.9%) run. In the games featuring Nos. 10-12 seeds, favorites hold a recent 10-6 ATS (62.5%) edge.
The underdogs for the First Four games of the No. 16 seeds are St. Francis (Pa.) and Mount St. Mary’s. The favorites for the No. 11 seed games are North Carolina and Xavier
Handicapping the Tournament by Conferences
Here are the conference trends that will be applicable for the First Four games on Tuesday night and Wednesday night:
ACC
Teams in the field/First Four matchup
NORTH CAROLINA (South #11) vs. SAN DIEGO STATE-Mountain West
Trends
• Over the last three NCAA Tournaments, the ACC boasts a record of 33-15 SU and ATS (68.8%).
This trend backs North Carolina
• ACC teams are just 32-49-1 ATS (39.5%) as favorites of five points or fewer in the NCAAs since 1998.
This trend goes against North Carolina
• ACC teams playing as double-digit seeds are 19-11-1 ATS (63.3%) since 2012.
This trend backs North Carolina
Big East
Teams in the field/First Four matchup
XAVIER (Midwest #11) vs. TEXAS-SEC
Trends
• The last 46 Big East teams to play as seeds of No. 7 or worse in the NCAA Tournament are just 12-34 SU and 16-30 ATS (34.8%).
This trend goes against Xavier
• Favorites are 51-19 ATS (72.9%) in the last 58 Big East NCAA Tournament games, including 23-5 ATS (82.1%) the last two years.
This trend backs Xavier
Metro Atlantic
Teams in the field/First Four matchup
MOUNT ST. MARYS (East #16) vs. AMERICAN-Patriot
Trends
• Metro Atlantic Athletic teams are now 1-6 SU and ATS (14.3%) in their last seven NCAA Tournament tries as a non-double-digit underdog. They are 4-1 ATS (80%) in their last five as a double-digit dog.
This trend goes against Mount St. Mary’s
• MAAC teams are 2-2 SU and 0-4 ATS historically in First Four games.
This trend goes against Mount St. Mary’s
Mountain West
Teams in the field/First Four matchup
SAN DIEGO STATE (South #11) vs. NORTH CAROLINA-ACC
Trends
• I have documented Mountain West teams’ struggles in the NCAAs in recent years, as collectively they are just 30-63 SU and 29-61-3 ATS (32.2%) since 2001, including 4-6 SU and 3-7 ATS in 2024.
This trend goes against Mount St. Mary’s
• As tournament underdogs, Mountain West teams are just 11-44 SU and 14-38-3 ATS (26.9%) since 2001.
This trend goes against Mount St. Mary’s
• Mountain West Conference teams have been totally overmatched against major conference programs in the NCAA since 2000, 13-51 SU and 16-46-2 ATS (25.8%).
This trend goes against Mount St. Mary’s
• As seeds of 8 or worse in the NCAAs, MWC teams are on a brutal 5-37 SU and 7-33-2 ATS (17.5%) since 2003!
This trend goes against Mount St. Mary’s
Northeast
Teams in the field/First Four matchup
ST. FRANCIS (Pa.) (South #16) vs. ALABAMA STATE-SWAC
Trends
• Northeast teams are 4-1 ATS over the the last two NCAA Tournaments, snapping a slide of 4-9-1 ATS in the prior 14 games.
This trend backs St. Francis (Pa.)
Patriot
Teams in the field/First Four matchup
AMERICAN (East #16) vs. MOUNT ST. MARY’S-Metro Atlantic
Trends
• Patriot League teams are 10-9 ATS (52.6%) in the first round of the NCAA Tournament since 2004 but are 1-4 ATS (20%) in all other games.
This trend goes against American
• Patriot League teams are 12-8 (60%) ATS vs. power conference foes in the NCAAs since 2000 but 1-7 SU and 2-6 ATS (25%) against fellow mid-major teams.
This trend goes against American
SEC
Teams in the field/First Four matchup
TEXAS (Midwest #11) vs. XAVIER-Big East
Trends
• The last five NCAA Tournaments have been a struggle for SEC teams, as they are just 44-43 SU and 33-54 ATS (37.9%) since the Friday of the first round in the 2018 tournament. They were a combined 8-8 SU & ATS in 2024. This trend figures to get tested heavily in 2025.
This trend goes against Texas
• Underdogs are 48-32 ATS (60%) in the last 80 SEC NCAA Tournament games overall, but they were just 5-11 ATS last year.
This trend backs Texas
• Seeded in the bottom half of the field (No. 9-14), SEC teams have struggled to a 10-25 SU and 13-20-2 ATS (39.4%) record since 2007.
This trend goes against Texas
SWAC
Teams in the field/First Four matchup
ALABAMA STATE (South #16) vs. ST FRANCIS (Pa.)-Northeast
Trends
• SWAC teams are on a 6-4 ATS (60%) run in NCAA Tournament games, including three straight wins in First Four games.
This trend backs Alabama State
Top head-to-head trends for the First Four
Only two of the four games have any recent relevancy in terms of head-to-head history:
(707) MOUNT ST. MARYS at (708) AMERICAN
* UNDERDOGS are 3-2 SU and 4-0-1 ATS in the last five games between these teams
(709) XAVIER at (710) TEXAS
* The last two games between Xavier and Texas both went Over the total, each producing 154 points
