Virginia vs. Colorado State March Madness Preview and Prediction
In the No. 10 vs. No. 10 First Four matchup in the NCAA Tournament Midwest Region, the Virginia Cavaliers face the Colorado State Rams for a spot in the first round.
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How to Watch Virginia vs. Colorado State
When: 9:10 pm ET on Tuesday, March 19th
Where: UD Arena in Dayton, Ohio
Watch: TruTV
Odds for Virginia vs. Colorado State
(odds current at time of publish)
Spread: Colorado State -2
Total: 119.5
DraftKings Betting Splits | Live College Basketball Odds | Virginia vs. Colorado State Matchup
Midwest Region No. 10 Virginia Cavaliers
Virginia’s Reece Beekman led the conference in BPM and is a really fun player to watch. He’s a feisty point-of-attack defender and processes the game at a high level offensively. Virginia’s offense is always boring, but Beekman is a very good pick-and-roll ball handler. Isaac McKneely and Ryan Dunn are also very good for this Cavaliers team. McKneely is a fearless catch-and-shoot option. Every good team has one of those. And Dunn is arguably the best wing defender in all of college basketball. He’s the leader of a Virginia defense that is top 10 in the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency. And that ability to defend is what makes the Cavaliers a tough team to beat. But this team’s disastrous offense could catch up to them at some point.
Midwest Region No. 10 Colorado State Rams
Niko Medved has proven to be one of the most underrated coaches in the nation. This Rams team tailed off a little after a scorching hot start to the season, but this is still a very good squad. And Colorado State has a guard that will give his team a shot at doing some big things in March, as Isaiah Stevens is just a fantastic basketball player. Stevens is a guy that can go out there and get you 20 points or 10 assists depending on the matchup. He’s cerebral at the point guard position, and he’s a very good shooter, too. Players like Stevens tend to do big things in this tournament, and it’s not like he doesn’t have any help. Colorado State also has good balance, with the team being top 50 in both offensive and defensive efficiency.
Virginia vs. Colorado State Preview & Prediction
This game is in the running for one of the lowest NCAA Tournament totals ever. Per Evan Abrams of ESPN, no NCAA Tournament game has closed Under 120 since 2019 and this one is tracking that way, as Virginia’s slow tempo and hideous offense battle it out with Colorado State’s slow tempo and impressive offense.
The pack-line defense continues to bring success to Tony Bennett’s program, as that’s the only reason UVA made the field. They are a top-10 squad in adjusted defensive efficiency, while ranking in the 190s for offense per KenPom and Bart Torvik. To be that bad with one of the lowest TO% marks on offense in the nation is crazy, but the Cavaliers are among the 60 worst teams in 2P% and bottom 10 in FT%. They are 20 spots lower per KenPom rankings than any other at-large qualifier.
One area where the Cavs do excel is with shooting 3s, where they are a top-50 offense, but they rank in the 290s in 3P Rate, so they don’t use that strength often. They were 9-1 in games decided by six or fewer points, another reason why many wanted to see them outside the field.
Colorado State, like their Mountain West brethren, got shafted a little bit by being under-seeded. Their six Quadrant 1 wins are four more than Virginia’s paltry total of two and the Rams are a top-50 team in adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency.
The travel is odd here for Colorado State and they did post just a 9-8 record in road/neutral settings, though that mark does include wins over Creighton and Colorado. They only shot 31.8% from 3 in those games, so the low total seems accurate and the Rams will have to figure out a way to make more 3s if they want to advance.
Steve Makinen’s estimated score: Colorado State 62.1, Virginia 59.6.
