Samford vs. Kansas March Madness Preview and Prediction

In the No. 13 vs. No. 4 matchup in the NCAA Tournament Midwest Region, the Samford Bulldogs face the Kansas Jayhawks in first-round action.

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How to Watch Samford vs. Kansas

When: 9:55 pm ET on Thursday, March 21st

Where: Delta Center in Salt Lake City, Utah

Watch: TBS

Odds for Samford vs. Kansas

(odds current at time of publish)

Spread: Kansas -7.5

Total: 150.5

DraftKings Betting Splits | Live College Basketball Odds | Samford vs. Kansas Matchup

Midwest Region No. 13 Samford Bulldogs

Samford is much better than your average mid-major team. The Bulldogs are top 10 in the nation in EFG% and 3PT%. They also play at one of the fastest paces in college basketball. With that in mind, Samford is going to be really tough to beat. It’ll take a very focused effort on defense in order to knock the Bulldogs off. Achor Achor is the best player on this Samford squad, but A.J. Staton-McCray, Jaden Campbell, Jermaine Marshall and Rylan Jones are all solid players. And overall, it feels like everybody on this team can shoot. The Bulldogs just need to find a way to lock in defensively themselves. But the added adrenaline of playing in this tournament helps in that regard. 

Midwest Region No. 4 Kansas Jayhawks

For the first time under Bill Self, the Jayhawks enter the NCAA tournament with 10 losses. But that doesn’t mean that this isn’t a good basketball team. Kansas had some bad injury luck down the stretch, with both Hunter Dickinson and Kevin McCullar Jr. being banged up. If both of them are at close to full strength, the Jayhawks can still make some noise in this tournament. They’re a top-10 team when it comes to defensive efficiency, and they have some offensive versatility. Dickinson gives them the ability to bang down low, while McCullar is a wing that can score in a number of ways. K.J Adams Jr. is also a good forward for the Jayhawks, while Johnny Furphy is a lights out 3-point shooter. Kansas also happens to be led by point guard Dajuan Harris Jr., who helped lead this team to a national championship with his two-way play two years ago. On top of all of that, Self is one of the brightest X’s-and-O’s coaches in America.

Samford vs. Kansas Preview & Prediction

This is my favorite game of the first round. “Bucky Ball” under head coach Bucky McMillan took the Bulldogs to the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2000 when Samford won the Atlantic Sun bid. The SoCon champs from Homewood, Alabama employ a high-pressure defense that led to a top-20 mark in TO%.

The Bulldogs parlayed a lot of those extra possessions into points, as they ranked in the top 10 in eFG%, 3P%, and top 25 in 2P%. They were thoroughly crushed by Purdue in the season opener and also lost by 10 to VCU in the next game before ripping off 17 straight wins.

To me, this is the kind of team that can make a high-major really uncomfortable, especially one like Kansas, who has been dealing with the injuries to Kevin McCullar Jr. and Hunter Dickinson. Achor Achor is a legit big for Samford and they’ve got a bunch of speedy guards and wings, including a real playmaker in Rylan Jones. The Jayhawks are absolutely on upset alert here.

I also think the profile of an upset-oriented team is to be able to shoot well from deep. Guard play is so big in the NCAA Tournament, but it also helps for the lesser teams to avoid banging down low with a bunch of better bigs. Samford shot 39.3% from 3 with a 3P Rate of nearly 41%. Kansas didn’t take a lot of 3s. 

Against teams like TCU, UCF, and Houston, Kansas had major turnover problems. Samford may find success here.

Estimated Score: Kansas 81, Samford 73

For expert predictions, go to our college basketball best bets page.

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