Kentucky vs. Illinois March Madness Preview and Prediction
In the No. 3 vs. No. 6 matchup in the NCAA Tournament Midwest Region, the Kentucky Wildcats take on the Illinois Fighting Illini in second-round action.
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How to Watch Kentucky vs. Illinois
When: 5:15 pm ET on Sunday, March 23rd
Where: Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee, Wisconsin
Watch: CBS
Odds for Kentucky vs. Illinois
(odds current at time of publish)
Spread: Kentucky -1 (-110), Illinois +1 (-110)
Total: Over 170.5 (-110), Under 170.5 (-110)
DraftKings Betting Splits | Live College Basketball Odds | Kentucky vs. Illinois Matchup Page
Kentucky vs. Illinois Preview & Prediction
If you like offense, this is the game for you. This game opened with a very high total, but it could have been higher and nobody would have blinked. This season, Kentucky is 12th in the nation in adjusted offensive efficiency and Illinois is right there in 13th, according to Bart Torvik. The Wildcats also happen to play at the nation’s 22nd-fastest pace, and the Illini play a bit faster than that. Illinois is 17th in adjusted tempo.
Oddly enough, these teams are kind of opposites when it comes to the 3-point line. Kentucky is outside of the Top 100 when it comes to 3-point rate, but the Wildcats are 23rd in the nation in 3-point percentage (37.4%). Meanwhile, Illinois is 30th in the nation in 3-point rate, but the Illini are shooting just 31.4% from 3. So, Kentucky doesn’t feature the 3 quite as much as Illinois, but the Wildcats knock down more of them. However, that’ll just end up evening out a bit, with both teams making their fair share.
In the end, it’s pretty safe to say this is going to be a high-scoring contest. So, playing the Over and just hoping for points might be the best way to attack this. After all, the Over is 20-13 in Illinois games this season. The Over is also 6-1 in the neutral-court games the Illini have played this year. It’s also 12-5 when the team plays against opponents with winning percentages between 60% and 80%.
With regards to the side, very little separates these two teams. Illinois actually jumped Kentucky in KenPom’s efficiency rankings after a convincing win over Xavier on Friday. EvanMiya also gives a slight nod to the Illini. However, Torvik has Kentucky as the better team. Our VSiN Power Ratings say the same.
It should be noted that Kentucky wanted John Calipari out because of his recent March shortcomings, and the team viewed Mark Pope as the answer. Well, Pope is going to have a really good opportunity to prove the Wildcats higher-ups made the right decision. He’s a brilliant offensive mind that has this team looking completely different than it did last year. And his team, which we already mentioned is excellent from 3-point range, is facing an Illinois team that is allowing opponents to shoot 41.5% from 3 since the start of February. That should be extremely exploitable from an X’s and O’s standpoint.
Pope is going to empower his fantastic group of guards to go out there and play freely, and they should really be able to find a way take advantage of this matchup. Well, with the guards getting a shot at lighting up a weak Illini defense, that’ll just leave Amari Williams and Andrew Carr to go to work in the battle inside. And I like the way Williams is built when looking at the matchup with Illinois’ big men. Tomislav Ivisic is a very good player, but Williams could rough him up a bit.
Estimated Score: Illinois 84.9, Kentucky 84.4
For expert predictions, go to our college basketball best bets page.
