Utah State vs. Purdue March Madness Preview and Prediction

In a No. 8 vs. No. 1 matchup in the NCAA Tournament Midwest Region, the Utah State Aggies face the Purdue Boilermakers in second-round action.

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How to Watch Utah State vs. Purdue

When: 2:40 pm ET on Sunday, March 24th

Where: Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis, Indiana

Watch: CBS

Odds for Utah State vs. Purdue

(odds current at time of publish)

Spread: Purdue -11

Total: 150.5

DraftKings Betting Splits | Live College Basketball Odds | Utah State vs. Purdue Matchup

Midwest Region No. 8 Utah State Aggies

Utah State was the regular season champion in a very good Mountain West conference. And a lot of that had to do with the play of Montana State transfer Great Osobor. The big man was a walking double-double threat for the Aggies, and he’s just a load to deal with in the paint. It’s no surprise that Utah State was a borderline top-10 team when it came to 2PT% this season. Utah State also happens to be a superb defensive team, and the Aggies are especially good at guarding the 3-point line. They are a top-five team when it comes to 3PT% defense, and that’s valuable considering how many teams prioritize the 3-ball. The question for Utah State will be whether somebody can get hot offensively. The Aggies might guard the 3 well, but they also don’t shoot it well. 

Midwest Region No. 1 Purdue Boilermakers

Everybody is quick to get their jokes off about Purdue, as last year’s Boilermakers became the second team in NCAA tournament history to lose a 1-16 game. But Purdue should be taken very seriously in this tournament. The Boilermakers still have 7-foot-4 center Zach Edey, the most dominant player in college basketball. And Purdue has snipers surrounding him, as the Boilermakers are a top-five team when it comes to 3P% this season. Matt Painter has still never made it to the Final Four, but that will change if he keeps giving himself chances. And this might be his best chance yet, as this Boilermakers team is loaded and plays the right way on both ends of the floor. 

Utah State vs. Purdue Preview & Prediction

Utah State was unstoppable against TCU in the first round. The Aggies went 33 for 60 from the floor, 8 for 19 from 3 and 14 for 15 from the charity stripe. Utah State is 43rd in the nation in adjusted offensive efficiency, so this is a good basketball team. But that performance greatly exceeded expectations and the Aggies will need to do it again in order to give the Boilermakers trouble.

The concerning thing for Utah State is that the team is shooting just 32.1% from deep this year. The Aggies are a horrible shooting team and like to do their work around the basket. They’re 10th in the nation with a 2P% of 57.1%. But even with Great Osobor being a wrecking ball in the paint, it’s hard to picture Utah State having success inside against this Purdue team. The Boilermakers are 14th in the nation in eFG% defense and are solid when it comes to 2P% defense. And that shouldn’t be surprising considering they have a 7-foot-4 mountain in the middle.

The math is also going to significantly favor Purdue here. Not only will Edey do his work inside, but the Boilermakers are shooting 40.7% from deep this season. That’s the second-best mark in all of college basketball. Of course, Purdue’s shooters went cold in last year’s first-round loss. But this is a more experienced team. These guards can be counted on to make some shots.

There’s a reason this is such a lopsided spread, and it’s because the matchup is just brutal for Utah State. But one thing that shouldn’t surprise anybody is if this ends up being a high-scoring game. Trying to speed Purdue up and not allow Edey to get comfortable is a strategy many have tried. The Aggies could look to follow suit.

Estimated Score: Purdue 80, Utah State 69

For expert predictions, check out our college basketball best bets page.

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