Colorado vs. Boise State March Madness Preview and Prediction
In the No. 10 vs. No. 10 First Four matchup in the NCAA Tournament South Region, the Colorado Buffaloes face the Boise State Broncos for a spot in the first round.
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How to Watch Colorado vs. Boise State
When: 9:10 pm ET on Wednesday, March 20th
Where: UD Arena in Dayton, Ohio
Watch: TruTV
Odds for Colorado vs. Boise State
(odds current at time of publish)
Spread: Colorado -2.5
Total: 140.5
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South Region No. 10 Colorado Buffaloes
Colorado struggled with consistency this season, but the Buffaloes are loaded with talent. KJ Simpson is an electric guard for Colorado, as he flirted with averaging 20.0 points per game this season, and he did it on good shooting percentages. On top of that, Simpson is a good passer. Forwards Tristan da Silva and Cody Williams are also fantastic. Da Silva is a versatile scorer and a guy that can take over games. And Williams, the brother of Oklahoma City Thunder wing Jalen Williams, looks like a surefire lottery pick in the 2024 NBA Draft. If that’s not enough, Colorado also has a massive center in Eddie Lampkin Jr., and J’Vonne Hadley is another good guard. There genuinely aren’t many teams that can match the Buffaloes on paper. Colorado was also a top-25 team in adjusted offensive efficiency and top-40 in defensive efficiency, according to Bart Torvik. So, the metrics tell you a different story about Colorado than the team’s seed does. This is also one of the best 3-point shooting teams in the nation. If the Buffs do get out of the First Four, they will feel they can play with anyone.
South Region No. 10 Boise State Broncos
Boise State is a top-50 team in both offensive and defensive efficiency, according to Bart Torvik. The Broncos also have some good nonconference wins under their belts, as they beat VCU and Saint Mary’s before getting into the Mountain West schedule. Then, Boise earned wins over Colorado State, New Mexico and San Diego State. This has just been a consistently good program under Leon Rice, and this year’s team has the goods to make a small run. Tyson Degenhart is a tremendous scorer for Boise State, and Chibuzo Agbo, O’Mar Stanley and Max Rice can all do their parts offensively. Rice, the coach’s son, is a big shot taker and a big shot maker. That’s the type of guy you want in March. Boise just needs to keep its focus defensively. The Broncos got lit up in some big games this year.
Colorado vs. Boise State Preview & Prediction
Boise State was rightfully dejected on Selection Sunday to have to play for their NCAA Tournament lives in Dayton instead of jumping right into the first round. The anti-Mountain West stance from the Selection Committee permeated most of the conference’s members, but the Broncos took the brunt of it.
A couple of top-50 wins in the Pac-12 Tournament seemed to propel Colorado into the field. Oregon being the team to win that event probably upped the perception and the metrics for the conference as well. Colorado also swept Oregon in the regular season before losing when it mattered most.
Colorado’s metrics are a good bit more impressive than Boise State’s, as the Buffaloes rank a good bit higher for both Bart Torvik and KenPom. Tad Boyle has a really good offensive team that ranked in the top 20 in eFG% and shot 39.4% from 3. The Broncos are more of a solid all-around team, including a top-25 rank in 3P% against.
These do appear to be two pretty evenly-matched teams, but Colorado had a much higher shot share on Close Twos, coming in at 48.1% and Boise State allowed a 62.7% FG% on those types of shot attempts. That is the main focal point for me here given the unfamiliar venue in Dayton and the benefits that come along with getting to the rim.
Estimated Score: Colorado 72, Boise State 70
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