Auburn vs. Michigan March Madness Preview and Prediction
In the No. 1 vs. No. 5 matchup in the NCAA Tournament South Region, the Auburn Tigers face the Michigan Wolverines in Sweet 16 action.
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How to Watch Auburn vs. Michigan
When: 9:39 p.m. ET on Friday, March 28th
Where: State Farm Arena in Atlanta, Georgia
Watch: CBS
Odds for Auburn vs. Michigan
(odds current at time of publish)
Spread: Auburn -7.5 (-110), Michigan +7.5 (-110)
Total: Over 150.5 (-110), Under 150.5 (-110)
DraftKings Betting Splits | Live College Basketball Odds | Auburn vs. Michigan Matchup Page
Auburn vs. Michigan Preview & Prediction
Everybody has been picking against Michigan this tournament. It feels like the entire world was on UC San Diego in the Round of 64. Then, after an unimpressive win over the Tritons, many people looked to fade the Wolverines in a Round of 32 matchup with Texas A&M. I was one of them. Well, Michigan erased a 10-point deficit in the second half of that game and ended up winning 91-79. Roddy Gayle Jr. was tremendous off the bench, scoring 26 points and knocking down four triples. He also went 8 for 8 from the charity stripe. Michigan also got some big numbers from the frontcourt duo of Vladislav Goldin and Danny Wolf, as the two of them combined to have 37 points, 21 rebounds and six blocks. Well, that duo is going to be interesting to watch against Auburn.
While the Tigers are pretty big favorites in this game, it’s no guarantee that Johni Broome, a legitimate contender for the Wooden Award, will be able to do his usual work around the basket. With the two trees inside, Michigan is 13th in the nation in 2PT% defense (30.9%). As long as those two players can stay on the floor, Auburn is going to need Broome to be flat-out special. The Tigers will also need some of their guards to step up and knock down some triples. Of course, Auburn’s shooters have done that all year long. Bruce Pearl’s team is 44th in the nation in 3PT% (36.6%), so the team has plenty of guys that can make catch-and-shoot triples. But it is worth noting that Michigan is also 34th in the country in 3PT% defense (30.9%). The Wolverines aren’t just good about defending around the basket, but they also do a good job of contesting jumpers.
Where Michigan is lacking is on the offensive end of the floor. The Wolverines are just 44th in the nation in adjusted offensive efficiency, and they’re not a very good 3-point shooting team. That’s why the offense broke out and looked completely different with Gayle knocking down 3s against a very good A&M defense. If somebody can get hot, that would take pressure off Wolf as an offensive hub. Michigan counts on him to do pretty much everything.
Michigan is also a turnover-prone team. That was ultimately the reason I landed on A&M in the second round, but the Wolverines only had nine turnovers against the Aggies. Dusty May is going to do everything he can to preach the importance of keeping that number down here. If Michigan can, the team should have a chance late in this game. If the turnovers become a problem again, Auburn might open this thing up. That’s because the Tigers aren’t going to cough the ball up themselves. They’re fifth in the nation in turnover rate (13.4%). Auburn doesn’t really roll the ball out to one guard. The Tigers have a bunch of trustworthy ball handlers, and a lot of the show runs through Broome. But Auburn’s guards are all reliable when looking to make plays. The Tigers swing it around quickly, hunting open shots and rarely settling for anything less. That said, if Michigan isn’t valuing each possession, that’s where the Wolverines might run into serious trouble.
If you’re thinking that this line is a little too high for a Sweet 16 matchup, that’s definitely somewhat understandable. At first glance, I thought the same. But the Tigers just beat a good Creighton team by 12. They’re now 10-4 against the spread in non-conference games. The cover against Creighton was also nice for the Tigers, as they had been absolutely terrible against the number when seeded 4 or higher in the tournament under Pearl.
It’s also an option to avoid the sizable number either way and look to the total instead. The number is all the way up at 150.5, which might seem high with this being a matchup between two top-15 defensive teams. But Michigan actually plays pretty fast, despite having two massive bodies that need to barrel up the floor. If the Wolverines are looking to up the tempo, they might be able to take advantage of a Tigers team that slipped a little defensively down the stretch. And obviously, if you’re betting Overs, Auburn is a good team to be rooting for. The Over is 12-6 in the 18 games the Tigers have played against teams with winning percentages between 60% and 80% this year.
Estimated Score: Auburn 79, Michigan 71.6
For expert predictions, go to our college basketball best bets page.
