Auburn vs. Creighton March Madness Preview and Prediction
In the No. 1 vs. No. 9 matchup in the NCAA Tournament South Region, the Auburn Tigers face the Creighton Bluejays in second-round action.
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How to Watch Auburn vs. Creighton
When: 7:10 p.m. ET on Saturday, March 22nd
Where: Rupp Arena in Lexington, KY
Watch: TBS
Odds for Auburn vs. Creighton
(odds current at time of publish)
Spread: Auburn -9 (-110), Creighton +9 (-110)
Total: Over 150.5 (-110), Under 150.5 (-110)
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Auburn vs. Creighton Preview & Prediction
IIt was a tale of two games in the opening round, as Creighton wasted no time pulling away from Louisville and Auburn struggled for the better part of the first half against Alabama State before leading by 10 at the intermission. Ultimately, the Tigers made no real effort to cover the 31.5-point spread by pulling away, but not nearly enough, in the second half, but one team had a thoroughly impressive performance in the first round and the other didn’t. Auburn opened a double-digit favorite, but Creighton money was popular at the open to drive the number down a little.
Creighton crushed a Louisville team that entered play in the top 30 in adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency and had two losses since mid-December. The Bluejays shot better than 57% from the floor and nearly 46% from 3, as Greg McDermott’s team put on a shooting clinic and ran their head coach’s streak of Big Dance appearances with an NCAA Tournament victory to five. Three of those appearances have resulted in a Sweet 16 visit.
To get there, Creighton has to beat the No. 1 overall seed. Auburn will have to shoot substantially better with a huge step up in class, as the Tigers were fortunate to get a 6-of-14 performance from 3 out of Miles Kelly, as most of the rest of the roster struggled on the Lexington, KY floor. The Bluejays are an elite shot-making team that entered the tournament second in the nation in 2P% and had underperformed relative to McDermott’s usual benchmark from 3 at 34.2%.
Auburn entered the field ranked in the top 40 in both categories and did so against a SEC team that got 12 teams into the NCAA Tournament. For good measure, the Tigers were also a top-10 team by adjusted defensive efficiency, while Creighton was in the low 40s. That said, the Bluejays were negatively impacted by a really low TO% on defense, as they were a top-25 team by eFG%. Auburn doesn’t turn the ball over, so it will be up to the Bluejays to defend well in the half-court, just as they did against Louisville and have done all season.
As impressive as McDermott’s tenure has been in Omaha, the Bluejays only have three wins over a higher seed in the NCAA Tournament and two of them were in the 9/8 game. The other was in 2023 as a No. 6 seed that beat No. 3 Baylor before drawing No. 15 Princeton to make it to the Elite Eight. Of course, Bruce Pearl has only made it past the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament once in five tries with Auburn, including three straight losses in either the first or second round.
Estimated Score: Auburn 81, Creighton 71
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