Colorado vs. Florida March Madness Preview and Prediction
In the No. 10 vs. No. 7 matchup in the NCAA Tournament South Region, the Colorado Buffaloes face the Florida Gators in first-round action.
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How to Watch Colorado vs. Florida
When: 4:30 p.m. ET on Friday, March 22nd
Where: Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis, IN
Watch: TBS
Odds for Colorado vs. Florida
(odds current at time of publish)
Spread: Florida -1
Total: 160
DraftKings Betting Splits | Live College Basketball Odds | Colorado vs. Florida Matchup
South Region No. 10 Colorado Buffaloes
Colorado struggled with consistency this season, but the Buffaloes are loaded with talent. KJ Simpson is an electric guard for Colorado, as he flirted with averaging 20.0 points per game this season, and he did it on good shooting percentages. On top of that, Simpson is a good passer. Forwards Tristan da Silva and Cody Williams are also fantastic. Da Silva is a versatile scorer and a guy that can take over games. And Williams, the brother of Oklahoma City Thunder wing Jalen Williams, looks like a surefire lottery pick in the 2024 NBA Draft. If that’s not enough, Colorado also has a massive center in Eddie Lampkin Jr., and J’Vonne Hadley is another good guard. There genuinely aren’t many teams that can match the Buffaloes on paper. Colorado was also a top-25 team in adjusted offensive efficiency and top-40 in defensive efficiency, according to Bart Torvik. So, the metrics tell you a different story about Colorado than the team’s seed does. This is also one of the best 3-point shooting teams in the nation. If the Buffs do get out of the First Four, they will feel they can play with anyone.
South Region No. 7 Florida Gators
Florida is absolutely relentless on the offensive glass, as the Gators are top-five in the nation in offensive rebound rate. Playing with that type of toughness and getting extra opportunities to score is very valuable. And that’s especially true for an offense that is top 15 in the nation in adjusted offensive efficiency, according to Bart Torvik. Florida also does a decent job of defending the 3-point line, where opponents shoot a mediocre percentage against them and also don’t get a ton of shots up. That’s huge with the way basketball is played today. Another nice thing about the Gators is that a lot of guys on this team can really play. Walter Clayton Jr. and Zyon Pullin are both excellent, and Tyrese Samuel, Will Richard and Riley Kugel also have their moments. It’s a deep team that can beat anyone.
Colorado vs. Florida Preview & Prediction
The Buffaloes may feel more in their element with their first-round game against Florida. Colorado played a 60-53, grind-it-out type of game against Boise State. Against the Gators, this should be more of a free-wheeling offensive slugfest, as the Gators love to score and could take it or leave it with playing defense. Florida’s four games in the SEC Tournament featured 165, 190, 185, and 153 points, with the last game a loss to Auburn in which the Gators were 1-of-13 from 3.
Colorado comes in as a top-20 caliber offense by eFG% and was also among the nation’s leaders in 3P%, though the Buffaloes were very selective about taking them with a bottom-40 3P Rate. They won’t be forced into them by Florida, as head coach Todd Golden does everything he can to get his guys to run opponents off the 3-point line.
Golden is a data-driven coach who has adopted a lot of NBA principles with his teams. They attack the offensive glass and try to get to the rim as much as possible. His Gators don’t shoot as many 3s as his San Francisco Dons used to, but some of that probably has to do with personnel in his second year. The Gators were in the 310s in 3P% last season, so he just didn’t have the guys to do it.
In any event, this is a very up-tempo Florida team that scores a lot of points and gives up a lot of points against a Colorado team that can score with the best of them. It should be a very fun one in Indianapolis.
Estimated score: Colorado 81, Florida 80
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