Gonzaga vs. Purdue March Madness Preview and Prediction
In a No. 5 vs. No. 1 matchup in the NCAA Tournament Midwest Region, the Gonzaga Bulldogs face the Purdue Boilermakers in Sweet 16 action.
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How to Watch Gonzaga vs. Purdue
When: 7:39 p.m. ET on Friday, March 29th
Where: Little Caesars Arena in Detroit, MI
Watch: TBS/truTV
Odds for Gonzaga vs. Purdue
(odds current at time of publish)
Spread: Purdue -4.5
Total: 154
DraftKings Betting Splits | Live College Basketball Odds | Gonzaga vs. Purdue Matchup
Midwest Region No. 5 Gonzaga Bulldogs
This year’s Gonzaga team lacked the consistency we’re used to in a Mark Few-led program. It’s also a rather thin rotation, with Few really only trusting seven guys. But there isn’t a team in the nation that will feel good about drawing the Bulldogs. The Zags are a top-10 team when it comes to offensive efficiency, and they’re not bad defensively. Gonzaga also rarely turns the basketball over and really values each possession. It’s also hard not to like that the Zags have a good backcourt in Ryan Nembhard and Nolan Hickman. Good guard play is crucial in March. They also have a versatile frontcourt pairing in Graham Ike and Anton Watson.
Midwest Region No. 1 Purdue Boilermakers
Everybody is quick to get their jokes off about Purdue, as last year’s Boilermakers became the second team in NCAA tournament history to lose a 1-16 game. But Purdue should be taken very seriously in this tournament. The Boilermakers still have 7-foot-4 center Zach Edey, the most dominant player in college basketball. And Purdue has snipers surrounding him, as the Boilermakers are a top-five team when it comes to 3P% this season. Matt Painter has still never made it to the Final Four, but that will change if he keeps giving himself chances. And this might be his best chance yet, as this Boilermakers team is loaded and plays the right way on both ends of the floor.
Gonzaga vs. Purdue Preview & Prediction
Maybe this is the year that Matt Painter gets over the hump. The Boilermakers have scored 184 points through two games, as Grambling and Utah State have felt the wrath of a team on a major mission. Getting to the Sweet 16 hasn’t been too difficult on Painter’s watch, but the Boilermakers only have one Elite Eight appearance since 2000 and this is Painter’s 19th season, so you can do the math.
Purdue’s remarkable efficiency has been impressive, but what Gonzaga has done against stiffer competition makes for an awesome matchup here in Detroit. The Bulldogs pummeled popular upset candidate McNeese State in the first round with a 21-point win that wasn’t as close as the final score indicated and then went out and beat a much better Kansas team by 21 points.
The Jayhawks have been banged up late in the year and Bill Self’s postgame comments made it seem like he wasn’t too fond of this year’s KU squad. Nevertheless, Gonzaga has scored 1.232 and 1.324 points per possession through two games in the tournament and they’ve been playing some tremendous basketball ever since starting the season a little bit slow.
This will be Gonzaga’s ninth straight appearance in the Sweet 16. They’ve alternated years in the Elite Eight, making it in odd-numbered years from 2015-23, though the 2020 COVID team would have had a great shot as well.
This game is different for handicappers than the rest of the games we’ve had in the NCAA Tournament because we actually have a data point to go back to when analyzing this matchup. Purdue beat Gonzaga 73-63 back on Nov. 20. Zach Edey had 25 points and 14 rebounds in that game, as the Boilermakers took charge with about five minutes left in the second half to pull away after trailing for about 23 minutes of game time prior to that.
Gonzaga was only 6-of-32 from 3 in that first meeting. Edey will get his, though 6-foot-10 junior Ben Gregg has played a lot more minutes later in the year. He’ll be the best hope to match up against Edey and the Bulldogs are going to need a much better shooting performance from their guards to pull the upset.
Estimated Score: Purdue 79.1 – Gonzaga 74.5
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