Grand Canyon vs. Saint Mary’s March Madness Preview and Prediction

In the No. 12 vs. No. 5 matchup in the NCAA Tournament West Region, the Grand Canyon Antelopes face the Saint Mary’s Gaels in first-round action.

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How to Watch Grand Canyon vs. Saint Mary’s

When: 10:05 pm ET on Friday, March 22nd

Where: Spokane Veterans Memorial Arena in Spokane, Washington

Watch: TruTV

Odds for Grand Canyon vs. Saint Mary’s

(odds current at time of publish)

Spread: Saint Mary’s -5

Total: 130.5

DraftKings Betting Splits | Live College Basketball Odds | GCU vs. Saint Mary’s Matchup

West Region No. 12 Grand Canyon Antelopes

It feels like Bryce Drew is building something special at GCU. The Antelopes are dancing for the third time in his four years with the program. And this is the best team he has had, by far. Grand Canyon is currently 52nd in our VSiN Power Ratings and 53rd in KenPom’s efficiency rankings. And this team gets it done on both ends of the floor. GCU has an explosive backcourt in Tyon Grant-Foster and Ray Harrison. And several other players are capable of contributing. The Lopes are also relentlessly defending inside the 3-point line. They’re a top-10 team when it comes to both EFG% and 2PT% defense. However, that could change against a much bigger opponent. If Grand Canyon is lacking anything, it’s a legit center that can be trusted to play big minutes. Duke Brennan is the closest thing the Lopes have to that. But he often gets himself in foul trouble against legitimate size. 

West Region No. 5 Saint Mary’s Gaels

Saint Mary’s seems to always have a good team, but it hasn’t resulted in March Madness success. Perhaps that changes this year. The Gaels are a top-five team when it comes to EFG% defense, and they do a great job of guarding the 3-point line and forcing teams into shots they don’t necessarily want. They also happen to be a top-10 team when it comes to 2PT% defense, so they’re tough on opponents around the basket. The question mark is on the offensive end. The Gaels look like a good team when it comes to adjusted offensive efficiency. But they put a lot on Aidan Mahaney’s plate. There are a bunch of players on this team that can make plays off the ball, but they’re missing a little juice when it comes to creation. Randy Bennett’s team also struggled in nonconference games, so people will be skeptical of them. 

Grand Canyon vs. Saint Mary’s Preview & Prediction

I will start this capsule the same way I started McNeese vs. Gonzaga. Death, taxes, and dangerous mid-majors getting paired up in the first round.

This game is from the “anything you can do, I can do better” department. Both of these teams excelled defensively, ranking in the top 10 per Bart Torvik in 2P%. Saint Mary’s was a little bit better. Both teams got to the rim a lot on offense, but Saint Mary’s was a little bit better, in both shot share and FG%. Saint Mary’s was just a little bit better in 3P%. Saint Mary’s was just a little bit better on the offensive glass.

Basically, Grand Canyon could have given a middling high-major a real tough game, but instead they got paired with a better version of themselves. Last season, Grand Canyon was given Gonzaga and lost by 12. This is actually a better Grand Canyon team defensively, but a little worse offensively, especially in terms of 3P%.

This is the highest tournament seed for the Antelopes in the Bryce Drew era, so they’re getting a little bit more respect in that regard, but this looks to be a rather unfortunate matchup. Randy Bennett’s Gaels have one loss since December 23 and two losses since December 1. There is also a noteworthy strength of schedule discrepancy here, as Saint Mary’s played eight Quadrant 1 games and Grand Canyon played one, though it was a home win over San Diego State.

Estimated Score: Saint Mary’s 69, Grand Canyon 63

For expert predictions, go to our college basketball best bets page.

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