New Mexico vs. Tulsa
We’ve reached the semifinals in the NIT, which will be held at Hinkle Fieldhouse in Indianapolis, IN, which is also where the Final Four is being held, just in a much larger venue. The first of two semifinal matchups will be New Mexico vs. Tulsa, as two of the No. 1 seeds from the start of the tournament have navigated the field to get to this point.
Despite playing their easternmost game since beating VCU in Richmond, VA back on Dec. 10, the Lobos are still favored over the Golden Hurricane to move on to the NIT Championship Game on Sunday.
This preview focuses solely on this game, but we’ve got daily best bets from Greg Peterson, as well as his daily spread and total projections, picks six days a week from Adam Burke, and men’s and women’s college basketball projections five days a week from Tyler Shoemaker, the proprietor of the T Shoe Index.
This season, we’ve also connected with CBBAnalytics.com to access their data and I’ll be working that into my article. Use promo code VSIN30 for $30 off at CBB Analytics and find your betting edge.
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook as of April 2, 1:00 am ET; check out our Circa Betting Splits and DraftKings Betting Splits.
New Mexico (-3.5, 161.5) vs. Tulsa
7 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Eric Olen’s first season in Albuquerque has been very successful and he’s probably going to level up to a bigger job in the near future. For now, Olen has his sights set on some hardware, as the Lobos fell short of the NCAA Tournament, but have knocked off Sam Houston State, George Washington, and Saint Joseph’s to get to this point. All three of those wins did come in The Pit, though, so we’ll see how they fare in their first game away from home since Feb. 13 when they lost to San Diego State in Las Vegas in the Mountain West Tournament.
Tulsa also won three games at home to get to this point, besting Stephen F. Austin, UNLV, and Wichita State, blowing a huge lead against the Shockers just to hold on and beat their conference foes. The long layoff could be a real thing for these two teams, as both last played on Mar. 24 and are now going to an unfamiliar venue. The chance to win a tournament championship is a nice carrot, but how engaged were the players in practice and shootarounds during the week off?
Both teams have a lot of above average metrics and good shot selection data. In UNM’s first year with Olen, they have a Rim & 3 Rate over 84%. Similarly, Tulsa has a Rim & 3 Rate over 87%, but they have a fourth-year head coach in Eric Konkol who has finally put his stamp on the program this season after seven seasons with Louisiana Tech and three frustrating and exhausting seasons with Tulsa.
Both teams can fire away from 3, with Tulsa checking in as a top-five offense in the nation at 38.9%. One of the hallmarks of their offense in this tournament has been exactly that, as they take a 3-pointer on nearly 47% of their shots and have even increased that here in the NIT. New Mexico is easily the best 3P% defense that they’ve seen in the tourney and probably for the season, as the Lobos force opponents into a lot of contested perimeter shots. UNM has a 48% 3P Rate against the ranks among the 10 highest in the nation, but a 30.2% 3P% against that ranks in the top 10.
Now, the Mountain West was not a very good offensive conference this season, so we’ll see if the Lobos can hold up, but the three teams that they’ve faced in the NIT are 27-for-90 (30%) from 3. Tulsa has taken 90 3-pointers in three games and has shot 34.4%, so they’re actually below their season average in made shots, but that has not deterred them from firing away.
The Lobos have won the turnover battle and the rebounding battle in every one of their NIT games. That’s been true throughout most of the season, especially with a 4.1% TO% differential to the plus side. Conversely, while Tulsa also took good care of the ball, they also didn’t force many takeaways.
The only area where the Lobos really scuffled defensively was in 2P% defense, as they rank in the 240s heading into this game. But, a lot of that has to do with how much they tried to force teams to the outside and sometimes that left some openings. Olen, correctly, felt like his team could withstand the made 2s by shooting and defending 3s efficiently.
New Mexico vs. Tulsa Prediction
This is a bit of a tough handicap, mostly because both conferences were down from what they usually are, so it’s a little tricky to tell what’s real and what’s not in the stats and the rankings. But, Olen is one of the nation’s top coaches in my opinion and he’s had a heck of a lot of time to prep for this game. Tulsa is certainly a good offensive team, but they’re likely to lose the possession battle here and a tough night from 3 would be very hard to overcome.
Pick: New Mexico -3.5
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