Alabama State vs. Auburn March Madness Preview and Prediction
In the No. 16 vs. No. 1 matchup in the NCAA Tournament South Region, the Alabama State Hornets face the Auburn Tigers in first-round action.
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How to Watch Alabama State vs. Auburn
When: 2:50 p.m. ET on Thursday, March 20th
Where: Rupp Arena in Lexington, Kentucky
Watch: CBS
Odds for Alabama State vs. Auburn
(odds current at time of publish)
Spread: Auburn -30.5 (-110), Alabama State +30.5 (-110)
Total: Over 149.5 (-110), Under 149.5 (-110)
DraftKings Betting Splits | Live College Basketball Odds | Alabama State vs. Auburn Matchup Page
Alabama State vs. Auburn Preview & Prediction
The first game of the NCAA Tournament delivered from a drama standpoint, as Alabama State scored the game-winning bucket with one second left after spending most of the game trailing Saint Francis. Suffice it to say that it was a happy bus ride to Lexington for the Hornets with their first-ever Big Dance victory, blissfully ignoring the fact that they have to play against the No. 1 overall seed in the tourney on Thursday with a quick turnaround at 2:50 p.m. ET.
Auburn is an enormous favorite, understandably so, as the in-state matchup features a very large gap in talent and execution. DraftKings Sportsbook opened Auburn -29.5 before the Hornets were all even back in the locker room celebrating and the market moved up a little from there.
Alabama State’s win was hardly pretty, as they shot 42.9% from the floor and went just 9-of-29 from 3, a stat that has to improve against the Tigers because they are not going to find as many open lanes to the rim as they found against the Red Flash, who shot 50% from the floor. The Hornets mixed up defensive looks throughout the game, adding some full-court pressure and 2-3 zone in the second half. None of those things should really faze the Tigers.
Against SFU, Alabama State took 22 more shots, was +9 in offensive rebounds and +9 in turnovers and it still took some last-second heroics to survive and advance. Auburn, the No. 1 team in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency per Bart Torvik, had a TO% during the season of 13.4%. Saint Francis was 321st in the nation at 19.6%. Takeaways proved to be the difference in the game and now we have to wait and see if the Hornets can get enough of them against the Tigers to keep this one within the number.
Auburn comes in as a top-40 offense in 2P% and 3P%, as well as a top-15 defense in eFG% and 3P%. Per Torvik’s rankings, this will be the lowest-ranked team that the Tigers have faced this season, beating other teams in the 200s by 51 (Vermont), 44 (Richmond), 41 (Georgia State), and 29 (Monmouth) points.
Estimated Score: Coming soon
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