Michigan State vs. New Mexico March Madness Preview and Prediction
In the No. 2 vs. No. 10 matchup in the NCAA Tournament South Region, the Michigan State Spartans and New Mexico Lobos clash in second-round action.
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How to Watch Michigan State vs. New Mexico
When: 8:40 p.m. ET on Sunday, March 23rd
Where: Rocket Arena in Cleveland, Ohio
Watch: TNT
Odds for Michigan State vs. New Mexico
(odds current at time of publish)
Spread: Michigan State -7.5 (-105), New Mexico +7.5 (-115)
Total: Over 148.5 (-105), Under 148.5 (-115)
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Michigan State vs. New Mexico Preview & Prediction
Izzo versus Pitino in the second round of the NCAA Tournament? Sign me up. Well, wait. It’s not that Pitino. It’s Rick’s son, Richard, but he also happens to be one heck of a coach. The 42-year-old is in the dance for the fourth time in his career, and he has brought the Lobos to back-to-back NCAA Tournaments. Pitino has actually had so much success with New Mexico that his name is coming up for some much bigger jobs. He has completely built his stock back up after his run at Minnesota. So, it’ll be interesting to see how he does in a coaching battle with one of the legends of the sport. However, this is going to be a tough matchup for the Lobos.
New Mexico likes to play extremely fast, as the team is fourth in the nation in Bart Torvik’s adjusted tempo. However, the team is just 86th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency. Clearly, Pitino knows his team isn’t all that reliable in half-court situations, so he encourages them to get out and run as often as possible. Unfortunately for New Mexico, Michigan State is sixth in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency. The Spartans are also a top-100 team in 2PT% defense and the best team in college basketball in 3PT% defense (27.7%). Michigan State simply doesn’t give opponents an inch. And Izzo is going to drill it into his team that they must get back and stay ready to defend the Lobos in transition.
Another thing that could hurt New Mexico is that the Lobos are 18th in the nation in defensive rebound rate this year. That gives New Mexico an advantage over a lot of teams, but it doesn’t do so against Michigan State. The Spartans are 19th in the nation in offensive rebound rate, so they’re going to hit the offensive glass hard and look to bully the Lobos. That’s just what Izzo teams do. And given Michigan State’s size and athleticism, the team should be able to do so successfully. It’ll take a Herculean effort from Nelly Junior Joseph to prevent that.
I’m also not sure Michigan State is going to be hurting for offense here. The Spartans have had their ups and downs offensively this season, and the Lobos are a top-20 team when it comes to adjusted defensive efficiency. However, New Mexico fouls a lot. That could be trouble against a Michigan State team that is relentless in pursuing the ball and also has guards that attack the basket. Also, the Spartans really seemed to grow offensively down the stretch. Once Izzo let up on freshman Jase Richardson, things really took off for Michigan State. The Spartans actually come into this game after having scored 74 or more points in each of their last five games. That should be plenty given their ability to defend.
I know everybody is going to come into this one talking about Donovan Dent, and the Lobos guard is explosive as a shot creator. But Michigan State’s backcourt can suffocate opponents defensively, and the team will likely blitz Dent to force the ball out of his hands. That will then put the onus on other New Mexico players to beat an elite Spartans defense. I’m not sure they’ll be able to do it, and others seem to agree. This spread opened at 6.5 and quickly moved out to 7.5.
It does seem like there’s some interest in the Over, as the number went up right after lines were released. That’s interesting considering both of these teams are better defensively than they are offensively. But New Mexico does play fast. And maybe Pitino will look to ramp that up a bit, hoping to out-gun Michigan State instead of trying to beat an Izzo team at its own game.
Estimated Score: Michigan State 79, New Mexico 71.3
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