Texas Tech vs. Arkansas March Madness Preview and Prediction
In the No. 3 vs. 10 matchup in the NCAA Tournament West Region, the Texas Tech Red Raiders take on the Arkansas Razorbacks in the Sweet 16.
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How to Watch Texas Tech vs. Arkansas
When: 10:09 p.m. ET on Thursday, March 27th
Where: Chase Center in San Francisco, California
Watch: TBS
Odds for Texas Tech vs. Arkansas
(odds current at time of publish)
Spread: Texas Tech -5.5 (-110), Arkansas +5.5 (-110)
Total: Over 145.5 (-110), Under 145.5 (-110)
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Texas Tech vs. Arkansas Preview & Prediction
Texas Tech beat up on Drake, a trendy underdog, in the second round. The Red Raiders, playing without Chance McMillian, earned a 77-64 victory over the Bulldogs. JT Toppin and Darrion Williams combined to score 53 points in the game, absolutely dominating with their combination of size, athleticism and relentlessness. Also, with Texas Tech needing a guard to step up in McMillian’s absence, Elijah Hawkins answered the bell, finishing with 16 points and seven assists. Meanwhile, Arkansas won an absolute rockfight against St. John’s, prevailing 75-66 as a 7.5-point underdog. The Red Storm’s offensive struggles always felt like they’d hold the team back eventually, and Rick Pitino’s team went extremely cold in this one. Meanwhile, John Calipari’s squad, which has always been talented, turned in a strong two-way effort. The Razorbacks were able to win by nine despite shooting only 2 for 19 from 3.
This is now going to be a very intriguing clash of styles. Arkansas was able to get by St. John’s because the two teams are both defensive-minded, but the Razorbacks were a little more talented in the end. They had too many players that were able to go out and make plays, which is something the Red Storm didn’t have — especially with RJ Luis Jr. having one of his worst games of the season. Well, Texas Tech has the kind of size and athleticism you see on the Arkansas roster, but the team is also well-coached and plays a highly efficient offensive style. Will the Hogs be able to keep up with them offensively?
This season, the Red Raiders are sixth in the nation in Bart Torvik’s adjusted offensive efficiency. They’re a top-50 team in 2PT% (54.9%), a top-30 team in 3PT% (37.1%) and a top-35 team in 3PT rate (34.2%). This team looks to get layups or dunks, or they look for 3s. There’s very little in between. And they have an elite play finisher in Toppin to do the former, then a bunch of guards that can shoot the hell out of the ball to do the latter.
The Razorbacks’ offensive game plan isn’t as consistent game to game. They’re 53rd in the nation in 2PT rate (47.8%) and shoot 54.4% on 2s, so Calipari wants them to score around the basket and they clearly can. But Texas Tech is rock-solid when it comes to 2PT% defense (48.1%), and Arkansas really doesn’t prioritize the 3-ball. The Razorbacks are shooting just 32.4% from deep (247th in NCAA), and they’re just 182nd in the nation in 3-point rate (38.9%).
There’s just a very good chance that the math battle is going to be hard to overcome for Arkansas. If Texas Tech has a decent shooting day, Calipari’s guys are going to need to shoot uncharacteristically well in order to prevent the game from getting out of hand.
Perhaps the injury report can change some things here. It sounds like Adou Thiero was very close to returning last game, and he can give Arkansas a much-needed jolt. Thiero would have a good chance of making things difficult on Toppin in this game. But it’s also possible McMillian returns for Texas Tech. Grant McCasland said a few days ago that McMillian’s “upper body injury” is really impacting his ability to play, but he was a game time decision for both tournament games. Unless that was strictly gamesmanship, you’d think four full days of rest could give him the time he needs to get right. If both Thiero and McMillian go, I believe that’d be a strong edge for Texas Tech. But if one plays and the other doesn’t, that’s a huge advantage for whichever program has their star active.
The Over is pretty interesting in this game. While Texas Tech doesn’t play very fast, the team’s ability to hit the 3 and produce easy shots at the basket always makes a high-scoring game possible. And while Arkansas doesn’t take a lot of triples, the team does play at a top-75 pace when looking at Torvik’s adjusted tempo. Calipari wants his quicker players to get out and run, hoping to create something in transition instead of slowing things down in the half court. That’s where the lack of 3-point shooting hurts. But a team that knocks down a lot of triples and a team that gets out in transition should make for good dancing partners when it comes to the total.
The Over is also 9-3 in Texas Tech non-conference games this season. It’s also surprisingly 7-2 in Arkansas’ last nine games.
Estimated Score: Texas Tech 74.6, Arkansas 70.2
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