Duke vs. Houston March Madness Preview and Prediction
In a No. 4 vs. No. 1 matchup in the NCAA Tournament South Region, the Duke Blue Devils face the Houston Cougars in Sweet 16 action.
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How to Watch Duke vs. Houston
When: 9:39 pm ET on Friday, March 29th
Where: American Airlines Center in Dallas, TX
Watch: CBS
Odds for Duke vs. Houston
(odds current at time of publish)
Spread: Houston -4
Total: 133.5
DraftKings Betting Splits | Live College Basketball Odds | Duke vs. Houston Matchup
South Region No. 4 Duke Blue Devils
Duke still has a lot to prove under head coach Jon Scheyer, and the Blue Devils entered March Madness after a disappointing loss to NC State in the ACC Tournament. But Duke was a very good team for most of the regular season, posting elite numbers when it comes to points per possession on offense and very good marks on defense. The Blue Devils have a remarkable big man in Kyle Filipowski, who is capable of beating defenses in a number of different ways. And Duke can match anybody when it comes to guard play, as Jared McCain, Tyrese Proctor and Jeremy Roach make up a legitimate three-headed monster in the backcourt. So, this team is going to be very dangerous in the tournament. Scheyer just has to push the right buttons, which is something he has never done before.
South Region No. 1 Houston Cougars
Houston is arguably the best defensive team in the nation, according to adjusted defensive efficiency ratings from Bart Torvik. Steve Makinen also has the Cougars second in our VSiN Power Ratings. Kelvin Sampson’s team is once again impossible to score on, and the Big 12 Coach of the Year will be hoping that’s enough for the Cougars to win it all. Sampson led Houston to the Final Four in 2021, marking the second time he’s been there in his career. But the 68-year-old is looking to finish the story now. The question is whether the Cougars have enough offensive weaponry to do that. Jamal Shead is an experienced floor general for this squad, and L.J. Cryer and Emanuel Sharp can both get hot. But Houston doesn’t crack the nation’s top 100 in 3PT% or 3P rate. At some point a situation will call on the Cougars to open things up and let ‘em fly.
Duke vs. Houston Preview & Prediction
It isn’t often that Houston gives up 95 points. It also isn’t often that a team gives up 95 points and wins, but the Cougars scored 100 for the first time this season and that was enough to move on and face Duke for a spot in the Elite Eight.
The Cougars are very much known for their defensive prowess, but they’ve scored 186 points in 85 minutes in the NCAA Tournament so far. Obviously the performance against Longwood can’t be graded on the same scale as the performance against Texas A&M, but the Cougars are shooting very well overall in this tournament, especially on 2-point shots, where they were 20-for-30 against the Lancers and 23-for-32 against the Aggies.
Much like the situation with San Diego State taking on UConn, Duke has faced back-to-back double-digit seeds en route to the Sweet 16. The Blue Devils’ thorough beatdown of James Madison was a sight to see, as they shot 50% from 3-point land and had 22 assists on 33 made shots. Jon Scheyer’s team has also really cranked it up on the defensive end, holding Vermont to .786 points per possession and James Madison to .856.
While Duke has gone 20-for-46 from 3, the Catamounts and Dukes combined to go 9-for-38. It will be interesting to see if Duke can find any semblance of the same success against Houston. This is a Cougars crew that ranked in the 240s in 2P% and 120s in 3P% per Bart Torvik, so this is not a team that typically relies on making shots. They rely on forcing turnovers and making life hell on the other offense.
Houston is up to 17 Quadrant 1 wins for the season, while Duke is only 5-4 in those games. The rubber could very well meet the road for the Blue Devils here, but they statistically match up pretty well with a top 25 TO% on offense and a whole lot of shot-making ability.
Estimated Score: Houston 68.9 – Duke 65.8
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