Purdue vs. Nebraska
Many agree that the SEC is the top conference in the country, but the Big Ten is not that far behind and arguably the best game on the Tuesday night slate is Purdue vs. Nebraska. The Cornhuskers lost to Michigan in a big Tuesday night battle a couple weeks back as a double-digit underdog, despite their undefeated record, and lost by only three points. But, they followed that first defeat up with a second at the hands of Illinois at home five days later.
A romp over Rutgers got the Huskers back on track for this matchup with the Boilermakers, who have four losses on their resume, and three that were grouped together. Purdue lost to Iowa State by 23 back on Dec. 6 and didn’t lose again until dropping a week’s worth of games from Jan. 20 to 27 against UCLA, Illinois, and Indiana. Seeding becomes a consideration at this time of the year and a second Quadrant I-A road win would help Purdue’s cause per the metrics and the Selection Committee a little over a month from now.
Nebraska is a slight favorite in Lincoln for this one.
This preview focuses solely on this game, but we’ve got daily best bets from Greg Peterson, as well as his daily spread and total projections, picks six days a week from Adam Burke, and men’s and women’s college basketball projections five days a week from Tyler Shoemaker, the proprietor of the T Shoe Index.
This season, we’ve also connected with CBBAnalytics.com to access their data and I’ll be working that into my article. Use promo code VSIN30 for $30 off at CBB Analytics and find your betting edge.
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook as of February 9, 5:45 pm PT; check out our Circa Betting Splits and DraftKings Betting Splits.
Purdue vs. Nebraska (-2.5, 147.5)
7 p.m. ET (FS1)
Even in their losses, both of these teams played well. Purdue’s ugly Iowa State loss is the lone aberration, as they had 1.148, 1.285, and 1.088 points per possession in their three losses to conference opponents. The problem is that UCLA, Illinois, and Indiana combined to go 39-91 (42.9%) from 3 over that three-game stretch and that is a lot for any team to overcome.
It just so happens that will be the focal point in this game. Nebraska’s shot selection is slanted heavily towards the perimeter, as the Huskers have heaved a 3-pointer on 50.9% of their shots this season. Purdue’s 3P Rate is 39%. But, both teams push opponents out to the perimeter, as Nebraska has the fourth-highest 3P Rate against in the nation and Purdue’s ranks among the 25 highest. Both teams are super stingy when it comes to getting high-percentage shots at the rim, so this game basically boils down to which team will shoot better from 3.
If it is Nebraska, they’ll be in great shape. If not, Purdue’s rebounding edge may come into play. The one enormous difference between the two teams here is that Purdue is a top-50 team in ORB% and Nebraska is a bottom-50 team. In Nebraska’s two losses, they’ve been beaten 35-23 and 40-27 on the glass, losing the offensive rebounding battle both times.
It should be said, however, that Purdue dominated on the offensive glass in non-conference play. Their 31% ORB% in conference play is just ninth in the Big Ten. Still, it demolishes Nebraska’s conference-worst 23.1% ORB%. Purdue has the advantage on the defensive window as well, so that adds more emphasis for Nebraska to make shots.
The Cornhuskers are shooting 38.2% from 3 in conference play and Purdue is sitting at 37%. When we add a second filter and look at venue, Purdue is actually slightly better on the road in Big Ten play at 37.1%, but Nebraska is much better in the friendly confines of Pinnacle Bank Arena, shooting over 40% on triple tries.
While the trio of Braden Smith, Trey Kauffman-Renn and Fletcher Loyer bears the most responsibility for Purdue, it would be nice to see Oscar Cluff get back into rhythm. The 6-foot-11 transfer from South Dakota State is shooting 74% on 2s for the season, but he’s been held to single digits in each of the last five games. Cluff had 20 points per 40 minutes and ranked in the 88th percentile in non-conference play, but has only averaged 17 points per 40 minutes in Big Ten play per CBB Analytics. Furthermore, he’s been far less dominant on the glass, going from a 99th percentile rate of ORebs/40 mins and a 90th percentile rate of DRebs/40 mins to just 79th percentile and 61st percentile, respectively, in conference play.
In Nebraska’s loss to Michigan two weeks ago, Rienk Mast didn’t play. The big man averages nearly 15 points and six rebounds per game, so he was a huge loss in a big game. He only had five points over 26 minutes against Illinois when he came back and pulled down just four rebounds with a 2-for-10 night from the floor. A few more days removed from his absence, he dropped 26 and 8 on the Scarlet Knights.
Mast, unlike Cluff, can play like a stretch 4 and he’s a serviceable 3-point shooter at 32.4%. Given that the other four primary shooters for the Cornhuskers shoot 37% or better from 3, the onus isn’t on him to make 3s, but he does open up the floor and create open looks.
Purdue vs. Nebraska Prediction
This is actually a tough handicap because it could be a high-variance game based on 3-point shooting numbers. Only 29.7% of Purdue’s field goal attempts come at the rim and only 32.3% of Nebraska’s are Close Twos as defined by Bart Torvik. But, Purdue also only allows opponents to get inside on 27.9% of their shot attempts, while Nebraska is at 24.4%. This could be a high-scoring affair, but not because of a bunch of dunks and layups. It could also be a low-scoring affair if the 3s aren’t falling.
Against Quadrant 1-A opponents this season, Nebraska has the better all-around numbers and Purdue’s offensive rebounding stats are slightly misleading given how Cluff hasn’t been as good in conference play, so the Cornhuskers are the pick.
Pick: Nebraska -2.5
Check out picks from VSiN hosts and guests on this game and all of the college basketball games on our Pro Picks Page.
See our College Basketball Page for more previews and predictions.
