St. John’s vs. UConn
Two teams sure to be dancing in March are UConn and St. John’s. Where they will be seeded is another story, as the Huskies still have a shot to have a No. 1 next to their name. The Red Storm have the chance to be an under-seeded team, as Bart Torvik has them ranked 19th coming into this game and KenPom has them 22nd. The Bracket Matrix has them with an average seed line of 5.24. While the Big East isn’t what it usually has been, Rick Pitino’s team is 15-1, including a win over UConn back on Feb. 6.
So, this St. John’s vs. UConn matchup is a revenge game for Dan Hurley’s club and an opportunity for yet another quality win. The Huskies are 7-2 in Quadrant 1 games as defined by Torvik and 5-2 in Quadrant 1-A games. With only nine qualifying games, the Huskies have had the fewest cracks at Q1 wins among teams that have at least seven of them. Will they make it eight?
This preview focuses solely on this game, but we’ve got daily best bets from Greg Peterson, as well as his daily spread and total projections, picks six days a week from Adam Burke, and men’s and women’s college basketball projections five days a week from Tyler Shoemaker, the proprietor of the T Shoe Index.
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Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook as of February 23, 5:30 pm PT; check out our Circa Betting Splits and DraftKings Betting Splits.
St. John’s vs. UConn (-5.5, 146.5)
7 p.m. ET (Peacock/NBC Sports Network)
By the AP Poll, this is a top-15 matchup, as UConn ranks just outside the top five and St. John’s sits 15th. The Johnnies started 2-0 in conference play and then lost at home to Providence to fall to 2-1. They’ve reeled off 13 straight wins since, including that aforementioned 81-72 win over the Huskies 19 days ago. It was not a good defensive performance from St. John’s, as they allowed a season-high 63.2% eFG%, but held a huge free throw advantage.
In that game, St. John’s was +17 in made free throws and +19 in free throw attempts. The Huskies were 20-of-34 on 2s, while St. John’s was 22-of-35. UConn hit four more 3-pointers, but lost the battle on the offensive glass and also had five more turnovers. It was also one of the lesser defensive efforts from UConn this season, allowing 1.179 points per possession. They’ve only allowed more than that twice in conference play, including the loss a week ago to Creighton.
One common trait of UConn’s three losses – Arizona, St. John’s, Creighton – is that those are their three worst games of the season in ORB%. For a team that ranks just outside the top 60 in wiping the window on the offensive end, they’ve only had 20 ORebs in the three losses. St. John’s is third in ORB% in Big East games, just one slot and just 0.7% below UConn. The reason why eliminating second-chance opportunities against the Huskies is so important is because they’re shooting 56.1% on 2s and 37.9% on 3s in conference games. Both marks are the best in the league, whereas St. John’s is seventh in 2P% and sixth in 3P%.
For not shooting very well in conference play, St. John’s has done a lot of other things well to sit at 15-1. They are tops in TO% on offense and second to Seton Hall in TO% on defense. Their rebounding prowess has gone a long way, along with a conference-best 46.6% 2P% defense. A lot of the thanks for that goes to Zuby Ejiofor, who has averaged 1.9 blocks per game, along with leading the team in points per game with 15.9, assists per game with 3.4, and he’s second to Dillon Mitchell in rebounds per game by mere hundredths of a decimal point.
Bryce Hopkins (14 PPG), Oziyah Sellers (10.9 PPG), and Ian Jackson (10.4 PPG) are the others in double figures on a regular basis. Jackson did not play in the demolition of Creighton on Saturday, as the Johnnies won by 29, so they didn’t seem to miss him with his sprained ankle.
Production has been spread out for UConn. Solo Ball leads the way with 14.2 PPG, but he’s one of five Huskies regularly in double figures. Tarris Reed Jr. (13.6 PPG), and Alex Karaban (12.9 PPG) are extremely efficient on the interior and Karaban is also shooting better than 40% from 3. Freshman Braylon Mullins is shooting nearly 39% from 3 while averaging 12.3 PPG.
St. John’s vs. UConn Prediction
The Huskies certainly have a good chance at getting revenge here, but this is a bit of a steep number it seems. Jackson’s absence could be tough, given that he’s shooting 36% from 3, but Dylan Darling has been playing really well and St. John’s plays good defense without fouling. They can match up with the Huskies’ length and athleticism on the inside and have a good chance to win the turnover and rebounding battles like they did in the first meeting.
Pick: St. John’s +5.5
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